Dean E
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Posts posted by Dean E
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Has been sunny here now since 1pm, reached a high of 33.9°C, making it the warmest day of the year so far,
Winds now beginning to swing round to the South, meaning the sea breeze is starting to cancel out that NE'ly.
Still 32.9°C
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6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:
Lucky you. Sheet of cloud above now, it has levelled out at 27.2°C RH 68%
Wish I could feel lucky. 32,6°C, dew point 18.8°C. Making it feel like 34.1°C.
I like heat, but this humidity is testing!
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32.2°C here now with NNE winds continuing. Cloud is starting to break and temperatures steadily rising now.
Wouldn't be surprised if we pushed towards 34 or 35°C now.
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Only reached a low of 19.7°C, which was only 0.4°C off my all time highest minimum temperature of 20.1°C.
Cloudier start today, however temperatures are higher than this time yesterday (probably from the already warm start)
Currently 29.2°C with hazy/cloudy skies. Winds from NNE... the direction where we always get our warmest temperatures!
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Complete cloud cover here now and the temperature is dropping, down to 27.2°C, down 3°C in an hour.
Winds have also switched from WNW to SSE in the past hour, cooling things down slightly.
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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:
Was about to hit 32°C when that cloud moved in here. Interestingly, there was a jump of just over 1°C in the space of 20 minutes ahead of that cloud.
If that's the maximum - and it probably is - then that's 2°C above yesterday's model consensus, which was strong even when comparing the global models with the high-resolution ones.
The 06z ARPEGE of today upped its prediction 32°C, so a successful adjustment there. Interestingly, this is with it making less of this area of cloud than the reality is proving to be. ECM also adjusted upward for its 00z, but was still a degree short.
Tomorrow, ARPEGE predicts the same maximum but with hardly any cloud interfering - just a bit of high cloud at times - and a NE wind. I think there's scope for the max to climb a degree or two higher if it does stay that clear. After all, ECM predicts 32°C, a degree up on what it had for today.
For Sunday, ARPEGE drops down a degree but ECM again predicts 32°C.
On top of all these model figures, today was unexpectedly handicapped by temps dropping to the low teens last night. A shallow inversion that the models totally overlooked! I'd be even more surprised to see the same happen tonight, as the broad scale flow looks stronger.
Overall, I sense that for the far south of England from Dorset eastward, today is just the taster and the weekend will be the main course that ups the ante slightly.
Was comparing the models this morning as well and came to the rough same conclusions for my area too. Appears both the ARPEGE and ECM were pretty spot on for here at 32°C (Just had a high of 31.9°C), again the cloud is now moving in and the temperature is rising.
I am not looking forward to this weekend, NE'ly winds always brings the highest temperatures here locally, so expecting at least a 35°C appearing, especially on Sunday.
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Steamy 31.4°C here on the South Coast, feeling very oppressive without any breeze.
Can see that cloud out in the Channel starting to move towards, so I will be at the peak locally here now heat wise.
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2 hours ago, Alderc said:
its annoying that's what it is, its lapping over the coast keeping it much, much cooler. 5miles inland its 3-5C warmer. Its a low stratus.
24°C here, the IOW doing a good job of breaking it up before it reaches here. Local variations at play today.
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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Still overcast here, proper crap.
Crazy to think i'm just the other side of the Solent from you and I've got clear skies and 24°C!
IOW doing a great job of breaking up that cloud for me
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The welcomed sea breeze, that has been absent for the past 3 days is back! Winds have turned Southerly.
Temperature has dropped by a degree but still 24.3°C after a high of 25.3°C at 10am.
humidity still high.
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3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Hmm now that IS Interesting, never really thought about the barometric pressure these things were moving into etc. A bit like the rule of thumb for a North Easterly flow in the winter across the North Sea and our snow machine, in the 1987 and 1991 and 2010 winters pressure was always a certain level for deep convection but stray higher or lower then things never seemed to click. I wonder if we just got lucky with everything setting up perfect for the Plume, the pressure and engaging troughs in those days and nothing more.
Anyone doing a Met Degree this would be an interesting dissitation for you. If I ever lived again and went to OU Met school I would be doing an interesting one on the increase of Smooth Channel Lightning around or just before Violent EF3 Tornado Occurences
Yeah could still be a driving force for why imports struggle to move across the channel. Last documented time I can recall with a MCS moving across the Channel successfully locally was May 2011, hours of storm activity that reminded me of the 90s/00s. Recent events here have developed just offshore or over the South Downs.
I did think of doing it as my dissertation, however I decided to concentrate on the changing climate in Southern England during the winter months! But yeah, anyone currently doing Meteorology or Geography, I would suggest this to be a good topic!
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22 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:
Totally agree with your comments Paul.
Over the last few Decades, Plumes seem to have been associated with a Steering Flow, from SSW > NNE.
Whereas, back in the 60's/70's, the Steering Flow of these Thundery breakdowns seemed to be more S > N.
With this in mind, I started to "employ" what I call the Cherbourg Peninsula test.
I will Post up an image of the Cherbourg Peninsula/South Coast, to illustrate my point.
If electrical activity initiates East of the Peninsula, the areas primarily affected will be East Sussex/East Kent, with a Steering Flow from SSW > NNE . This is basically what happened again, around Dawn this Morning.
The infamous "Kent Clipper", more or less bared its teeth again, and the Capital remained unaffected.
This "Cherbourg Peninsula Test" has worked so many times, over the last few Years.
Regards,
Tom.
Have noticed this too. Having lived on the South Coast all my life and remember the late 90s and 00s huge overnight thunderstorms from France, I can only dream of this now.
Electrical activity from France appears to always hug the Northern Coast, steering NNE/NE. The precipitation however continues on its northern route, leaving the cell behind or fizzling out.
As part of my degree, I did look into this and found no obvious correlation. Sea temperatures were my first though, but nothing found. Second was the general setups of heat plumes or Spanish plumes compared to the 80s- and 90s, looking at CAPE and velocity as well and again, no huge difference was noted.
One area that was interesting was Northern Blocking having an influence, as in previous summers, pressure has been much higher over Scandinavia and subtling changing plume events across Southern England. I had more luck comparing them but even then, didn't find a correlation.
I think the Met and others could take a look at this, to help shed some light on it.
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Another humid night last night, with some rain around 1am. The low was 17.1°C
Currently sunny and even more humid than this time yesterday.
24.7°C DP at 18.2°C!!
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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Looking at the rain intensity that is showing to hit Bournemouth area in 45 mins surely activity will pick as it approaches land again?
Previous events (July 2019, June 2018 and June 2014) produced localised cells to fire right along the coast as the main area approached. Outflows and local conditions help massively. East of the IOW, South Downs and Salisbury plain are on my watch at the moment.
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3 minutes ago, steve86 said:
Can see lightning from portsdown hill.
1 minute ago, Joseph Hudson said:though there was bright flash just then
Ah if I could get up to Portsdown, I would! Perfect place for storm photography!
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Looking very interesting to the south of IOW. Will local cells fire as the system approaches? This is common during these types of setups, especially on the eastern side of the IOW.
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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Oh sweet jeez, that looks heavenly! So jealous!
Mate, I'm still on DDR3... rig is still 2012 build, just with GPU upgrades. But still going strong!
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15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I cannot recall the temp being 28°C at this time of day here.
Yep, 28°C here also. Normally the sea breeze comes through long before now, but that NE'ly is still going strong.
Keeping my eye on Northern France, around The Channel Island. Something is brewing ahead of model predictions.
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Another hot and borderline very hot day here on the South Coast. NE'ly winds continue to keep the sea breeze at bay here, so will always get our highest temps!
So far we've had a high of 31.7°C after a overnight low of 18.2°C.
Currently 31.2°C.
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Update at 23.55. Sticky.
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Much warmer here today, winds have been to the E or NE today, which always means highest temperatures during the summer locally!
Reached 31.4°C today at 3.20pm.
Currently 30.8°C with warm NE'ly winds.
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Very warm today, reached a high of 26.5°C at 4pm.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
A station in Bere Regis, just 6 miles from here, has had over an inch of rain, yet not a drop here.
Localised as you can get. I've had 10mm here, but seen places like Chichester which is also around 6 miles away has barely had any.
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Just now, Mapantz said:
All developments are moving N/NE of here
Guessing within miles? I think I'm benefitting locally from the IOW as showers formed over Portsmouth/Hayling Island and moved over me.
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2020 Onward
in Regional
Posted
33.9°C appeared to be my maximum today. Briefly approached towards 33.7°C in the past hour, but that slight shift in wind direction to the SW keeps bring it back down. Some unusual winds here.
Currently 30.9°C with hazy skies.