Dean E
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Posts posted by Dean E
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31 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
A note on the winds for Sunday - most main models bring 70mph gusts to many places far inland, and even 80mph in spots. ECM and GFS are pretty much on the same page.
Is it too late for a late developing disturbance in the flow, blowing up into a small low pressure system? I still don't see why it couldn't happen. If it did, winds could locally go even higher - and of course, anything higher than 80mph and serious problems are possible.
I think that could be possible, but from current output, looks unlikely.
What is interesting is there are 11/20 runs of the 12z GFS going for a central pressure of 950mb at 12pm Sunday. 9/20 are going for 945mb, which would mean stronger pressure gradients and thus stronger wind gusts.
18z will provide more clarification, but so far, the exact strength still is uncertain.
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1 hour ago, MP-R said:
March quite often blows any Jan/Feb gales out of the water so if we're to continue this Atlantic rut into spring, that may be our best chance of 'interesting' stormy weather. Although, I'm sure by then, many will be sick to the back teeth of the Atlantic. Some notable March gales from yesteryear:
Maybe even an April gale, like this one in 1994 - looks like a scene right out of early December!
Right now, I'll take any weather that is better than what we've got now. At least with a zonal flow, there's dry and sunnier periods!
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58 minutes ago, MP-R said:
That sounds like a really interesting dissertation. Would love to read your research!
Such a shame it’s so often the boring weather patterns that get stuck in a rut. It’s as if our climate is trying to become less extreme.
Thank you! I will share it at some point for anyone who is interested.
Yeah definitely agree, the Atlantic appears to be very quiet over the past few years with storm activity, or they avoid us and move either North or South because of a blocked pattern out East. I'd even take a few storms right now, as 2019/20 winter has thus far been a bit 'meh'.
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Horrid drizzle and misty day with grey being the main theme. Max for today was 11.2°C.
This winter continues to both anger and amaze me. I'm a lover of cold winters and nice dry summers, but being in the UK, you can never expect that! (maybe the dry summers lately!). But having recently graduated university for the second time after completing my master's, my dissertation concerned the changing climate of Southern England... main theme? Longer periods of certain weather types over the past 10 years. Longer dry periods (Summer 2018), longer extremes (2013/14 winter) and later colder weather (March 2013, February 2018).
This winter has been frustrating climate wise, pieces of the puzzle were there but we never got close enough to deliver colder solutions. Europe and North America are in the same boat, I've got a close friend living in Stockholm, Sweden saying they've only seen 2 dustings so far... Incredible.
I'm 27 years old and never not seen snowfall at some point here and I've lived in the South my whole life.
But my question to members here in the South, can you remember a winter without any snowfall (not even a Snowflake) falling at all here?
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:
The 18z is a good example of true cold zonality, some mouthwatering snow totals for Northern Ireland and Cumbria and the North Pennines.
This is probably the closest the UK is getting towards a winter for the foreseeable. The Ski resorts may finally have some positive trade over the coming weeks.
This winter so far has been incredible, with the beginning starting way back in October and nothing much changing since then... an extended Autumn!
Like other have said, there is a lot of cold air bottled over the Arctic and eventually it will head towards us and the low latitudes as the sPV and tPV breakdown for their season end. Whether this comes in time for the end of February or March remains to be seen.
One increasing chance is that spring may end up on the cool side, which I think would be the final nail in the coffin...
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The low over Newfoundland around the 4/5th is the critical area to watch for this high to setup.
EC 0z EC 12z
The difference between 0z and 12z are not too dissimilar, but the 0z produce a secondary low to the south, allowing a sharper ridge to establish upstream. The Euro is starting to downplay that idea and thus reducing the Northerly fetch later on.
I believe this is a move away from the 0z and more towards the 12z GFS.
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GFS 12z Should not be discarded IMO, many times over the past few years it has latched onto a new idea and inevitably all other models catch up.
The reason I can see that the 12z is going for the high building to our south is due to the amplification response due to the deep low forming over Newfoundland. The GFS allows the low to move further East into the North Atlantic, not allowing some ridging moving up to Iceland.
The EC 0z builds a ridge up into the Icelandic region, thus allowing the centre to build out west of Ireland, delivering a Northerly. UKMO and GEM also follow this in the same way.
Now the GFS does like to go 'default' and blow up anything in the Atlantic and most of the time it never occurs, but with these type of events, the GFS track record sometimes proves to be correct.
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27 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Ah, the joy of living on the South coast, in an Atlantic dominated winter..
Meanwhile, over the last couple of hours the temperature has been slowly rising down here, only 0.6C but positive direction none the less..
10 minutes ago, matt111 said:Rising here too. Currently 7.9°C
Also rising here, albeit slightly inland compared to you guys. 5.9°C
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Pretty unsettled day here, temperature peaked at 9.1°C. Rainfall so far 7.1mm.
Currently clear with a chill in the air, showers approaching though.
5.3°C.
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3 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:
Oh no not again...in the local rag this morning..
OK Come on own up who uses the Dorset Snow alias, posting Netweather snow forecast charts to support their comment?
SNOW could be seen for the first time this winter next week – but it’s “unlikely” to settle.
Twitter-based forecaster Dorset Snow said that GFS weather charts had shown a risk of "some wintry precipitation” early next week.
Dorset Snow said: “At seven days range it’s unlikely to verify, but about as much hope as we’ve had all winter. Settling snow very unlikely.”
Dorset Snow @DorsetSnow
GFS continuing to show the risk of some wintry precipitation early next week. Could we finally see our first snow flakes of winter 19/20?
See Dorset Snow 's other Tweets
He said that the signs were there could be a “brief cool snap.”
Bournemouth Airport was named one of the coldest places in the UK on Monday night.
Wimborne-based forecaster Wessex Weather said temperatures plunged to -4.4C.
According to the Met Office, the weather over the next few days will be cloudy with temperatures reaching 11C on Monday.
Definitely an Atlantic driven setup is due to re-establish over NW Europe beyond Sunday, with a powerful jet exiting the US and moving across the Atlantic. Yes, likely that Northern areas of the UK may get some wintry showers at times, but down here, I'd say very unlikely IMO, especially away from higher ground.
We need some sort of dramatic pattern change over the next month to see any type of snowfall, Europe and Scandinavia are also much warmer than average, so there is also a lack of cold pools around us. Our cold outbreaks (if any!) are likely to come from the NW.
Will this be the winter without any cold snaps? Reminds me of the early 2000s!
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Also the coldest night of winter as well here, the low dropped to -2.4°C.
Another clear sunny day currently with not a breathe of wind. Temperature 7.0°C
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1049.8 hPa was my limit I believe. So close to that 1050! Still a new record for my station.
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Clear and cold overnight, however some medium level cloud moved in overnight, restricting the lowest minimums. The low was -0.9°C.
Pressure has now been steady since around 4am at 1049mb, beating my previous record by 4mb!
Currently Sunny with some medium level cloud persisting, 3.9°C. Pressure 1049.5mb.
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1047 hPa reached here which is 1mb above the previous record at my station. Still rising.
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Sunny day again, was nice to finally spend a weekend day out in the sunshine without the rain or cloud! The high here was 7.4°C, so lower than yesterday.
Currently 5.9°C and falling steadily as the sun begins to set. Pressure leveled off at 1045 mb, having barely risen since lunchtime. I am now 1mb off my record set back in 2016, now looks set to be broken.
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Cold and clear last night with a low of -1.9°C.
Beautiful start today and can't see that changing! Also on pressure watch and we are currently at 1043.6 mb.
Currently 2.1°C with sunny skies.
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Currently 1036mb here and slowly rising.
Temperatures tonight are following the same trend as last night, slowly dropping off then rising slightly. Hopefully tomorrow night is better for a good low and still can't get over I'm calling this low!
Currently 0.0°C.
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Beautiful day with sunshine dawn to dusk, with a high of 7.7°C and low humidity.
Pressure has continued to rise, will most likely break my station record data, going back 10 years!
Currently 0.5°C with clear skies. Pressure 1035mb.
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Beautiful start to the day here and not expecting that to change. Last night the temperature didn't drop below zero until 1am, but did get down to -1.4°C with a frost.
Currently 4.1°C with sunny skies. Pressure 1021mb and rising steadily.
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And so the pressure rise begins. What are peoples prediction for the South and South West? I'm going for 1051mb somewhere around Somerset (Bristol/Weston Super Mare).
I'm hoping to beat 1044mb set in 2013 locally!
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3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:
Lively echoes on the radar last night. Damage reported
Would be interesting to see any personal weather station data in that area, likely to be picked up I'm sure!
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Met Office warning for 20-30mm of rainfall has been in place since 3pm today for my area, have only had 3.4mm. Seems they did not need to warn about this!
Cloudy day today, with some sunshine at times but showery rain on and off. The high was 10.8°C
Currently cloudy and 10.0°C. Another incredible overnight temperature for January!
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A loud night, especially around 2am when the decaying squall front passed through. Around 12.7mm of rain fell here since midnight, with 25.1mm overall since the event started yesterday. Awaiting the response from the local rivers, which are still high following December's rainfall.
Currently the sun is starting to come through and feeling colder, 6.8°C.
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Sunny start to the day, however rain soon came in and became heavy during the afternoon, high reached 12.2°C at around 11am, very impressive for January.
Looking over averages so far this winter and it is no surprise to see locally that temperatures are above average. December's average was 6.8°C, which is 1.1°C higher than usual (December average 5.7°C) and January so far is around 7.9°C which is 2.1°C above my local average!
Winter 2019/20 is going the right way in breaking records for me!
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Winds appeared to have peaked around 2pm here, with a gust of 52.1mph.
Have just driven back down from Manchester after a weekend away, travelling was not too bad, however was very blowy at times!
Currently 11.8°C, Winds SW at 25mph.