SteveElbows

Has a cell just jumped into life immediately west of Birmingham? The radar shows something happening.

There is a small amount of precipitation thats falling just within that zone. For areas a tad further east than the current precipitation I suspect there is a chance for something better later, perhaps much later, but Im not sure if it will be impressive and thundery or just dregs - may have quite a wait to find out. Here in Nuneaton the sun has been trying to break through the clouds for an hour or so now, with only limited success. Im not actually surprised by the lack of precipitation here so far as the models have been showing this for a little while, the big question is whether it livens up as the front slowly starts to budge later on.

BBC & met office removed the thundery graphic for me tonight (they previously had it for around 1am). Im reducing my expectations somewhat but will be ready to ramp them up again if things look promising later.

Im not sure if I am reading the models properly but the 18Z GFS seems to be continuing the trend of having the heavy precipitation too far west for you to get the day you want tomorrow. However the storm risk stuff still seems to travel east later on so maybe you have more chance of night thunderstorms than daytime rain tomorrow.

The uncertainty seemed clear on the BBC forecasts I saw tonight, where they seemed to be avoiding showing where the rain might be after 4pm tomorrow. Is the speed of the cold front still uncertain?

The met office and BBC have decided to dust off the thunderstorm graphic for me for Wednesday daytime, but we shall see, any rhyme or reason why they have bothered with this graphic for the coming week but didnt bother last week, even though I was in the rumble-zone on multiple occasions in the end? CanI ask a stupid question about thunderstorms at night in the midlands. What does it take to get them after dark, does it only usually happen with Spanish plume setups or is it possible for other causes to build a storm that lasts well past sunset?

Ta for the info, wasnt so heavy here and it looked like Bedworth got it better, so good to hear the reality. More thunder here but as its now showing up on the various onine lightning detector sites I will stop going on about it.

Several more loud ones, last one just seconds ago was very 'crackly' for the first 4 seconds.

Im almost through the band now and three more loud thunder instances at 17:37, 17:41 and 17:43

And a 2nd loud rumble somewhere near Nuneaton, thats 2 from each band so far, maybe more that I didnt hear.

Im now in the 2nd band as it passes Nuneaton and rain here with another loud rumble of thunder 1 minute ago.

Yeah it wasnt that exciting here, did help refill the water butt though, and it seems I was rather lucky to heard 2 instances of thunder, though I didnt actually see any lightning so Im not sure where the action was. There isnt a lot showing up on any of the online lightning strike things today. I still enjoyed it though, consider myself lucky to get something today before the action moved too far east, I see it has gone up and met the 2nd band that was fading out, and in general the shape of things is evolving quite rapidly at the mo.

I enjoyed the cov/nuneaton/bedworth/hinckley->leicester/loughborough cell. It went quickly and it was not quite as intense for me as Id expected via the radar, but I think the very heart of it was just very slightly to my south & east as it went by. Only heard two long thunder roars as it passed overhead. Couldnt see its shape as by the time I saw it approaching it was just a menacing grey sky. I have recorded some of it leaving and will have a look later to see if there any any interesting shapes to be seen. Im now waiting to see if I get hit with the band that is slightly futher north-west, its changing shape quite a bit as it passes Birmingham so Im not sure what I will get yet.

Rain and a loud rumble of thunder here in Nuneaton

Very long and loud thunder here a minute ago. A cell started immediately east of me 20 mins or so ago, and whilst the band just south of me is changing shape so that I will probably miss the heaviest precipitation, there should still be a good show here by looking east. I am video recording the sky from by bedroom looking north-east for the next hour.

Here in the middle of the midlands I am anxiously awaiting the stuff that is slightly south of me at the moment, it is trying to go east but unless it changes shape Im more likely to get it than the one that went by earlier. Just in the last hour I am finally seeing some blue patches of sky here.

Im rather envious of the impressive stuff that went by too far east to touch me, congrats to those who got that. Is there a cut-off point at some time that I should use to give up for my location tonight and get on with something else instead?

There is a nice line of rain just to my south but its just a teensy bit west of me so Im not sure if I will get the juicy bit or not.

How come the met map has quite a band of rain travelling north-east across much of the country overnight? For what its worth (hopefully not a lot) their tabular forecasts are showing a lot less heavy showers for me during the day today, but as Im int he east of the west midlands I havent given up hope yet.

Yes I will be very interested to see how it pans out. What time do people think the thunder could start in the UK today? I saw the Undertaker in a nightclub in Birmingham back in 1993, he was rather tall! I didnt know what to say to him so I asked him if Paul Bearers voice got on his nerves, oops.

Well Im still learning but tomorrow looks pretty good and I think we are maybe also in for a chance of something on Friday afternoon/evening for us in the midlands.

Anything on the charts and models that would explain why the met regional forecasts have changed today - they were previously mentioning Wedneday thunder potential for the South West, Wales & West Midlands and those no longer mention thunder, the South East, East and East Midlands now mention thunder instead.

Just looked at the met forecasts again and the thunder word is still mentioned for the South East tonight/tomorrow, though they are hedging their bets. No mention of thunder for the East and East Midlands anymore. The possibility of thunder has also made it back into their forecasts for Wednesday/Thursday for the South West, Wales & West Midlands. I know I should take the met forecasts with a large pinch of salt, but as Im not knowledgeable enough to spot thunderstorm potential on charts etc I am reliant on these forecasts and the posts of people here. And Im certainly hungry for a thunderstorm, especially this week as Im on holiday from work and can stay up late. Ive seen one pretty small thunderstorm going by just to my east so far this year. I dont suppose there is anywhere on the net that I can see some data from thunderstorms I remember from quite a number of years ago are there? I have a few memories of storms from the mid nineties that Id love to learn more about whilst waiting impatiently for some real action this year.

Well I have little idea what I am talking about but I think I see stuff just starting to appear in the channel on the precipitation radar. Im in the midlands and was dreaming of thunder yesterday, so I read all the regional met office forecasts carefully, and I sadly notice that today they mention thunder much less than they did yesterday (both for thunder tonight/tomorrow in the East and for the West on Wednesday).

Video and pictures of some of the devastation, along with updated deathtoll: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8540762.stm