Ice Day

February 13

Interesting early changes on the 6z with the jet digging a bit further south, leaving us with this at day 9

Based on this run, our Irish contingent will be raising an eyebrow at 198hrs

The days that follow show some snow for most areas around the UK.

With the jet going south, were now very much in slider territory at day 10, with heights looking to build over Greenland.

I'm enjoying the model consistency, if nothing else. It's a very long way off, but it's a start.

February 13

32 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Are you in then, for one last ride, for old times sake?

A definite yes from me. It's been yet another winter of massive letdowns, as they always seem to be these days, but a late February cold spell can still pack a punch. There's some tentative uniformity between the ECM day 10 and GFS day 11, with rising heights up towards Greenland helping a pretty potent Scandi trough over in the days that follow

Confidence levels are of course extremely low at this range, but if the models are showing it, it's worth discussing. For those that threw the towel in, you'll need to sit this one out!

February 12

Well it's been a while since we had a pun run special, but it's churning out a corker at day 13!

Very cold and an unstable airflow, very nice. However, this has about as much chance as any other day 13 pub run chart

February 11

Drifter Completely unscientific, but probably just the GFS doing GFS'y things?! Be interesting where it sits in the ensembles, probably a very big outlier! For what it's worth, the GEFS mean at 150 is improved vs the 6z

February 11

The GEM at days 9 and 10 looks really good

Then we have the GFS at days 9 and 10 - yikes

Then the UKMO at 168 is excellent

Well, if the ECM backs the UK and GEM, game on. If it backs the GFS, oh dear!

February 9

Day 7 UKMO - not bad at all

February 9

GFS at day 9 is now starting to look like the day 9 ECM, albeit a tad slower

February 9

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

But you can't deny that ecm,is not as good even as last night

That's a different point Luke. I was just challenging your statement 'well played the GFS', as its been just as inconsistent as the others, albeit it hasn't 'yet' shown the same solution as the Euro's.

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry , I have to disagree. Gfs has outperformed ecm lots of times over the last 12 months. It may have well been the leader in years past but not anymore…..

It is still the leader. The verification stats show the ECM first, UKMO second. Of course, the GFS, ICON, and GEM have the occasional victory, but overall, the Euro's still lead the way, but are not infallible.

February 9

Lukesluckybunch Can't agree with you at all. For example this mornings GFS 0z for 132 hrs

Yesterday's 0z for the same time

To suggest the GFS has, in some way, trumped the other models is incorrect. It verifies behind the ECM and UKMO (and now the GEM) for good reason.

February 8

240 - not quite, but this won't be the final outcome

The fact that the UK and ECM are in almost perfect unison at 168 is a major plus. Exciting days ahead

February 8

Crazy chart at 216

February 8

Could we see a cross-polar flow on the 216? Doubtful, but whatever there's big changes afoot

February 8

Here's the 192

February 8

ECM and UK at 168 are very much on the same page with the split vortex

Where's it going from here then?

February 8

The GEM finishes on an interesting note at day 10..... but it is day 10!

The UKMO at 168

Big vortex split

February 8

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the eps at day 12 show plenty of very disrupted and split vortex’s

but few have rolled a double six as yet

Indeed Blue, I'd prefer the double 6's to come in the semi-reliable rather than day 10+. But given the state of the PV, hitting the jackpot is not an impossible task!

February 8

Crikey, sounds like a few people need a hug in here! If it's really that bad for you, shut the laptop/App and come back in a few days!!! Anyway, whilst the ECM ensembles are throwing out some decent options around days 10-12, I'm not yet ready to throw the towel in.

ECM Control at Day 11

The mean also showing more PV across to the Siberian side vs its earlier run

There's no denying that it's a long-shot, but with 3 weeks of Feb to go (plus I'll give it the first week of March), I'm not yet ready to wave the white flag.

February 7

Rain All Night Great post RAN. Well, here's the ECM ensemble mean at 300, another step forward I'd say

The ECM Control for the same time

There are so many options on the table now, it's somewhat mind-boggling! We'll need A LOT of patience over this next chase, if that's what it turns out to be!?