[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Extremely positive overnight runs (I'm shunning the UKMO), but the run of the morning goes to the GEM. The 850's for days 8-10 are stunning

  

So we're not looking out to day 10, the ECM and GEFS mean at day 8

 

So we have the GEM at one extreme and the UKMO at the other.  But, we're back in the game and I'd gladly take that after a couple of moribund model-watching weeks!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

An excellent day 8.5 mean from the GEFS

 

Tomorrow promises to be another interesting day of model-watching.  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The Control out to 216 is excellent

And a very good mean at 216 and 228

 

The question I have is are the models overreacting to a new signal, and there'll be an adjustment back tomorrow, or are we going to see further 'upgrades'?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The Control run is not to be sniffed at at day 8 either

 

Another snowy run for the north!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I wouldn't call it a fantastic run..maybe a 7/10

Maybe for yours and my location, but I'd say those further north would be a little more generous!  That said, it's academic at this range as much can, and will, change.  Great to see though.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

UKMO at 168 - very good

 

Edit - @Battleground Snow beat me to it!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex Hopefully so, although the GEM gets there in the end, looks great for the north to be fair

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

My word, the GFS is throwing out a stonker at day 9

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

According to the GFS, the snow continues for those in the sweet spot into Friday 

The GEM, however, still wants to blow the low up at 168

Much to be resolved, it will be interesting to see the UK 168.  I suspect it will side more with the GFS than the GEM

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The GFS actually showing a significant snow event a week from today for central and northern England

Interesting mid-term upgrades today

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The UKMO looks pretty bloody good at 144

GFS not a million miles away either

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Cambrian  Bravo sir, outstanding post 

The Control's looking pretty decent by 216 and somewhat akin to the ECM this morning.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

My 'Raised Eyebrowometer' has increased to level 3 this morning. Days 9 and especially 10 on the ECM, look very snowy and cold for most

 

 

The GEM is on the same page at day 10, day 11 would probably also be cold and snowy

 

An increasing number of cold GEFS around days 9 onwards

We're definitely looking in a better place this morning, but of course, at this range, we need to treat the micro scale for our little island with much caution, BUT we're not looking at day 10, the evolution on the ECM is relatively fixed by day 7/8. 

It would be nice to see this place get a little busier, I have a suspicion that it just might!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole I'd agree with Mike re this.  Looking at the NH profile at 204, the GFS and GEM are very similar over our neck of the woods

 

This appears to be a rapidly evolving situation so lots to keep an eye on over the next few days.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The GEM is looking somewhat different to the GFS at day 9 though.

By day 10, both my eyebrows are twitching on the GFS.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I think the day 9 chart is worth a raise of the eyebrow

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It's a beautiful run in deep FI, it may even raise @northwestsnow spirits 

 

Enjoy this run while you can, as it will be showing something different on the 12's

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

What's that saying about it always being darkest before dawn.... well, it's currently very very dark!

Awful overnight operationals and a slight step back on colder members from the ensembles in deepest FI, but there are still a few showing something of interest.

That said, we still have around 5 weeks of decent winter left, so there is time for it to change.  But it needs to get its skates on.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

There is undoubtedly an emerging signal for something colder showing up on the GEFS, starting around day 11.

It's a such range though it's no more than a watching brief at the moment.  However, given the rubbish being churned out of late, any glimmer of light is worth pursuing (assuming cold is your thing).

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @northwestsnow

You're not wrong, absolutely abysmal 12z's so far.  Mind you, it's probably down to the weekend and lack of flight data! 

The GFS does at least have the common decency to give a crumb of comfort... by day 15 

#

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @That ECM

Yep, the GFS is looking great at day 10

But the GEM is not having it at all.

Chaotic NH profile though, so definitely some reasons to be cheerful.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

I'd rate Storm Isha a definite 8 out of 10, for longevity alone. Based on local recordings, I've experienced gusts in the high 50's, which is very rare for my location. It's still absolutely howling.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Impressive list of strongest wind gusts up to 10pm.

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

A significant uptick in wind speed over the last 10 minutes, really howling now. I'd guess high 40's/low 50's range!

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

I think there's a tendency for people to overestimate the wind speeds they've experienced.  For my location, it's extremely rare to see wind gusts in excess of 60mph, probably only a few times a decade.  In the 20 years I've lived here, I've only experienced 70 mph gusts on one occasion, which was the St Jude storm. So, this is notable for my location.