GRHinPorts

I'll have 7.5 thanks.

10.4 for me thanks

14.5 for me thanks. Can't really see a cold September at all, in spite of the unsettled forecast for the next couple of days.

How often is August warmer than July? I imagine it not that uncommon but surely the longer nights in August make it slightly unusual.

16.6 for me thanks...Given current charts thats probably optimistic...but still.

Can't say I feel much need to whine about the weather hereabouts. Here in the south its felt on the better side of average for the past 3 days. Apparently its set to change on Thursday to something worse. We'll see.

Sorry to be late joining this discussion but I am definitely a fan of AC gloom (both in Summer and Winter so long as it is not as cold as back at New Year - cold AC gloom is indeed the worst - thinking of the last week of Feb and first 3 weeks of March in 2006 here) both because its very easy to work outdoors in and IMO its an integral part of the English weather pattern. Its a pity the transition to less summery weather this week has brought in such a showery regime in the South or otherwise I'd have to say I prefer this week to last. November 2005 did yield some spectacular sunsets as a backdrop to Portsmouth Millenium tower on the drive in after to work so was not all bad. However I would say my favourite season in recent times for working outdoors would have to have been this years Spring. Perpetually (or should that be homogenously) mild/warm with not too much rain. At the risk of sounding like Harold MacMillan "Ive never had it so good!"

Thanks Jack...I'm happy with my guess but just wanted to be clear.

Day 1 - 19C Day 2 - 19C Day 3- 18C Day 4 - 20C Day 5 - 21C Time lost: 185 minutes Just a query with the time lost for bad weather. Given within the cricketing regulations there is the capacity to "make-up" time lost by playing later into the evening: Are we talking about the amount of time that play is stopped for OR the amount of time lost out of the match. I imagine that we are talking about the former but if say it rained for 90 minutes in the morning session and then played continued for an hour later into the evening the various match reports would say only 30 minutes play was actually lost. So I think we just need this clarified.

Also, despite the UK having this reputation for being a bit rainy so many public and private big events take place in the Summer. The vagaries of the weather just adding to the fun so it would seem.

These heatwaves happen a bit too frequently though for them to be considered flukes IMO. I've lived in the UK since 1997 and I would say that on average we get a spell like this past week at least once in every 3 summers. Who knows whether there will be another hot spell to come in this Summer. If we do would people start to consider this year on a par with 2003 and 2006?

The 00Z GFS is suggesting an Azores High trying to ridge in from the SW from T120 but never quite succeeding in coming across the UK with low pressure centred over Scandanavia. Would I be correct in suggesting this would bring a spell of anti-cyclonic gloom (he says hopefully as preparing to go out and work in another scorching day in the hot sun) but not much rain?

Indeed. December is the only month of the year that has actually been colder in the past 12 years than the 1971-2000 average. I have visions of a strong correctional (record breaking!) mild month coming along soon. Perhaps 8-8.5C. With the El Nino present perhaps it will be this year. Snow lovers will be at their wits end

Minimums look to be very high for the coming week so I'd say 18.2 is very acheivable in those circumstances. Thanks for the link I wonder how they arrived at the figure of a 0.1-0.3 downward revision for urban heat effect. Sounds rather arbitrary the way its written on that site but presuambly there is a bit of science to it.

How are sites determined for the CET? Is there an even mix of rural, urban and semi-rural or is there a bias in favour of any one type? My gut instinct would that CET-land has become more urbanised over the past 50 years (and hence warmer) but perhaps there are checks against this.

The flip argument being had this heatwave come a week later my 14.3 would have looked quite clever :lol: Would have made July a potentially easier month to call as well.

Further to this point over the past 12 years the average for July is only 0.17 above the 71-00 average (making it the 2nd lowest differential of all 12 months) where as the average differential is something like 0.67. This is remarkable when you consider the effect 2006 should have on the sample. I'm therefore inclined to think we are "overdue" an above average July and I'm therefore going to submit: 17.6 I would have gone higher but I suspect there will be a brief (5 days?)cool spell after we get through the currently forecast heatwave for next week - the effects of which will mostly be on the June CET.

Looking at the latest 12z GFS I think I can still have some optimism about my guess

Yes....The point about drought is should definitely not be underestimated IMO.

This is pretty much just a guessing game...but my thoughts correlate exactly with yours. If I was to guess a date, location and exact temp I would plump for 34.1 at Northolt on the 5th of August.

Cheers for that In your original post I remember you going into quite a descriptive rant about 1992 which I found very funny

Sof95 - Quite a long while back I remember reading a post by you where you described 5 different types of UK Summer*. I cannot remember all the details but I distinctly remember you describing one of the 5 types as being "Mr Average" and presenting 2001 as a classic example. Your recollection of that Summer certainly tallies with my own. * Sincere apologies if it were not you but I wouldn't mind reading about that again sometime as I felt it gave a very good description of the various possible UK summer weather patterns.

Assuming its still 13.7 up till the end of the 21st its not wildly impossible to imagine daily CETs of 18/18.5 (max24/25, mins 11/12) for the remainder of the month. If that was the case we would end exactly on 15.1. Well done you if thats the case and I would like to add to those thanking you for the regular updates

The premise of the OP seems to be that the highest maximum temps recorded in the Spring months determines what high maximum temps will be recorded in the Summer months. I am not so sure this argument stands up to scientific scrutiny but perhaps someone who knows better will be able to show it does. Wisley is often a place that records high temperatures in Summer I have noticed.

My completely random guess: 30.1 at Wisley on Monday, June 29th.