GRHinPorts
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Late Autumn and December will quite probably end up with fairly decent positive anomalies given we have a moderate-strong El Nino event developing it the Pacific at the present moment and usually in that situation strong zonality will readily develop in late Autumn and probably stay for a long time.
Thats very interesting to me, because statistically we are overdue an anomolously warm December. Its the only month which has actually averaged colder over the past 12 years than the 1971-2000 average. This is in sharp contrast to the rest of the months which tend to average out at about 0.66 of a degree warmer over the past 12 years.
Even allowing for this I think there is still a sporting chance (30% to 40%) than 2009 will be sub 10CMore like about 10% IMO.
Quite possibly OP we do have a pretty decent chance providing we don't have a very above normal July/August, which would push it up quite a lot I'd have thought if that were to happen.Also another thing to note, the Atlantic is much cooler then its been in the last decade which may moderate Atlantic flows a little bit more then in previous years come the late Autumn/winter time.
Odds are though that somewhere between 10.2-10.4C is the most likely outcome based on the second halves of the last decade or so. The highest we could go in theory is about 10.9 if we somehow have another 2006 style summer which is highly unlikely.
A second half like 1996 will be enough to get us sub 10C.
The only other two months that lag behind the 0.66 anomoly comparing the last 12 years with 1971-2000 is July (bizarrely when you consider 2006) and August. For that reason statistically I am backing both months to have above CET averages.
I therefore concur with the view that the annual CET is likely to come out between 10.2 and 10.4.
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There are interesting parallels between how this summer has started, and between how July and August 2000 panned out. High summer of 2000 was generally regarded as a poor one, mainly because of the dull cold July for most central and eastern areas (though August offset this to some degree), but in western Scotland it was sunny and reasonably warm, and very dry in July. The third week of August 2000 also featured a very similar synoptic pattern to what we have now, with a very sluggish westerly and sunshine mixed with thundery downpours over N Ireland, Scotland and N England.
However I don't think that parallel is going to last- it should become drier sunnier and warmer generally in the S and E I reckon.
I sincerely hope there are not any further parallels with the year 2000 as I think near most of us will not want to live through another Autumn like we had in that year.
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That would be a seriously fun month to live through - although I know many question the validity of very old temperature records. Can you imagine though how frenetic this board would be if in mid June we had snow bookended by two heatwaves?
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Well it would appear 2009 is not going to challenge this enigma. Temps tomorrow look like getting between 20-25C but not much beyond that.
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Glorious sunshine here at the moment...Can it last?
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Had a heavy downpour about an hour ago but now its brightening up. Still a bit grey and very calm.
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Yeh the inconsistency to the start of summer is what I am reffering to. Maybe the title of the thread sounds worse than I am wanting it to sound lol. I am not saying summer will be a poor one, I am just saying that for some reason in the UK we seem to get a poor June quite a lot. 2007 and 2008 weren't very summery overall and the start to this one hasn't been very summery either. Admittadly the first 2 days were glorious though.
Ironically both 2007 and 2008 had far more "summery" starts to June than this year. Here in the far south (and looking at the charts it would seem it was the same for most of England) the period 1-10 June offered some of the best warm sunny weather of either Summer.
This is really the first disappointing start to June since 2005 and as a result is probably coming as a shock to the system.
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Here on the south coast there have been some showers and its been cool & grey at times but from 4pm onwards the sun has come out and its now a lovely blue sky evening.
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Has been a lovely day here in the South. Wall to wall sunshine for virtually the whole day and just a slight cooling breeze to stop you from being furnace blasted if you were working out in the sun. If only every day in Summer was like this
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It has indeed been a very warm spring - the 11th warmest on record in fact. 2003 (9.73C) was just 0.03C warmer than 2009.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt
When you look at which years are in the top 20, you very quickly realise why people have generally unrealistic expectations on what 'average' spring weather is like. In the top 20, 9 entries are all from the last 20 years:
1990, 1992, 1997, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009
I agree it has been a warm Spring. In fact I like the term "homogenously mild" that you and TWS use because it describes the things perfectly since Feb 15 this year.
And yet by the standards of the past 12 years this has been a cold year if we take the first 5 months in their entirety. It just goes to show how cold things really were (relative to modern standards) at the start of the year.
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No need to boast
I'll try...Pretty sure its just beginners luck.
Anyway by my reckoning if the May CET figure is 12.1 that will mean the running total for this year is now 36.2.
Looking back over the previous 13 years (back to and including 1997) this would make 2009 the 3rd coldest start to the year in this period. Only 2001 and 2006 were colder by this point.
By comparison against a 1997-2009 average 2009 is at -2.2 behind the average
By comparison with the 1971-2000 averages 2009 is at 2.1 ahead of the average.
Its worth noting that both 2007 and 2008 were miles ahead of 2009 at this point in terms of warmth. 2008 was ahead of the 71-00 averages by 5.3 and 2007 by a mind boggling 9.0.
All this leads me to believe that 2009 still has some anomolous warmth to come in the remaining months to "average things out". Hopefully this will be in the summer months.
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Its looking like 12.0C or 12.1C will be the final number. Hadley has done the quality control for all but one day (26th). The original value there was 12.5C, meaning the month would end up as 12.1C.
I shall feel very smug if it is 12.1 given this was only my second go at a CET guess B)
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I would place the dividing line at March- I can't remember a northerly since 1st March other than very brief 24-hour things on the 5th and 28th. November had a northerly on the 22nd/23rd that delivered 3 inches of snow to Norwich, and the first halves of December and February both had frequent northerly winds. True, they weren't sourced very far north, but they did bring snowfalls to many places and temperatures a good few degrees below average.
TWS - Would Feb 15 be a more accurate dividing line? Its just that my recall is that after the very cold first half of Feb the last two weeks of the month saw mild south-westerlies move in. Indeed when I think of this homogenously mild Spring I think of it from that particular date.
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14.3 for me...Warm enough but I've got a feeling the real heat will come later in July & August.
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The BBC have a great article on this weather event:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/unde...911_derby.shtml
Sounds like it was absolutely terrifying
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Haven't been on here for a wee while and saw this thread and thought what the hell?
Just shows the location, even in this small country makes all the difference.
The weather this side of the Irish Sea has been absolutely awful. Day after day of rain, wind, some thunder, hail and yes the odd funnel cloud thrown in for good measure. The only thing missing has been any decent sunny spells.
2009, year of the flood in my view. My back garden is like a bog.
Is this because (I don't know so am asking) the battle between damp moist Atlantic air and dry air off the Continent has this year been taking place just that bit further NW than usual?
Under that scenario wouldn't the expected result be that the further SE you went into England the drier it would be BUT that Atlantic lows would stall over Ireland and produce every increasing rain?
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I recently paid a visit to Ypres and went to Tyncott cemetery. Very moving.
The war to end all wars they said. Since November 11 1918 there has been armed conflict somewhere in the world of every day of every year
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The lack of frosts this Spring has made it an incredibly easy year for bringing on tender plants which I for one am very grateful. The chopping and changing of warmth vs cold is usually such a typical feature of the English Spring but it can wreak havoc on your best laid gardening plans.
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Drought conditions occur during summer usually on the back of a long period of dry weather i.e. 1976, although 1995 came after a wet winter, though spring 95 was dry... The relatively dry winter we have had does increase chances of drought conditions this summer - but I think it will take an exceptionally dry 3 month summer period to see anything on a par with 1995, perhaps more on a par with July 2006 which also came on the back of a very dry winter...
It is interesting as someone else observed that our weather in terms of dry and wet periods seems to come in distinct blocks.. the period autumn 1988- summer 1992 was dry, then we entered a wet period from summer 92 - winter 94/95, then a very dry period from spring 95- summer 97, then a very wet period through to winter 2002, then a fairly average period from winter 2002 - spring 2005, then a dry one from summer 2005 - winter 06/07, then wet until winter 08/09 - so on this basis I think we are in a 'dry' period..
Thanks for the additional background information damian
That definitely fits with my observation.
People would be unwise to dismiss the possibility of drought just because it might rain heavily for a day or two. In general we are in a 'dry' period for sure but thats not to say we will not have occaisional wet slots in between. Similarly in the midst of the last 'wet' period came April 2007.
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I guess this discussion is really all about whether you like a little bit of extra warmth all the time or whether you like to see extremely high maximums.
Personally I have enjoyed this Spring a great deal and would consider it ("homogenously") warm.
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I find this topic very interesting indeed (well done Mushymanrob for getting it started) because I have gradually come to the view that in this country we definitely seem to have prolonged periods of wet weather and then prolonged periods of dry weather. These periods seem to last 18 months - 2 years.
For example between November 2004 and November 2006 we had predominantly dry weather. Not every month was below averaged in that period but the majority were.
This was followed by the period December 2006 to November 2008 which I don't think people need much memory jogging to realise was a very wet period. I really must challenge the notion that 2007 began very dry. Yes, it barely rained a drop in April but every other month in that year up to August was surely above average for rainfall...January, May and July exceptionally so.
Since November of last year we have seen a proloned run of dry weather months which convinces me we are now in a period of dryer weather. Whilst its quite possible we'll see exceptional mini-periods within this (the reverse of April 2007 if you like) I would not be at all surprised to see the dry weather continue into, through and beyond the summer.
Looking back through the years I think my theory tallies with other periods of time. I well remember the torrential rainfall that seemed to be never ending through November 1999 to April 2001.
Looking back further both 1995 and 1996 seemed predominantly dry years and indeed do 1975 and 1976.
Of couse drought in this country does not in any way mean a record breaking summer. We could end up with many days of boring rainless cloud and temperaturs maxing out at 19 this summer and still have the water companies fretting about how they will maintain our supplies.
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Today has been one of the strongest easterlies I can ever remember experiencing in May since I have lived here (from 1997). It would have been an absolutely gorgeous day but its consistently been blowing at 25-30mph all day. I hate this kind of wind and can well understand how some can be driven mad by it. My garden isn't too pleased with things either
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Interesting observation, GRH - I myself lived for many years in Southampton (do I hear boo hiss?!) but my impression was that there was noticeably 'more weather' there than here in Reading - sunshine, rain and wind - and I think the stats bear this out. After moving 50 miles inland in 2002 my impression has been of more quiet, dull, dry days here in Reading and less rainfall, particularly in winter. I was also expecting it to feel colder in Reading, but perhaps the lower wind speeds inland moderated this.
No boo hiss (I have only been here 12 years - not long enough to become that parochial) but I would hazard a guess that the point you raise is ever so slightly emphasised in comparing Southampton with Portsmouth (i.e the latter having more sunshine, rain and wind and definitely warmer in winter (not summer) with even less likelihood of snow in the latter)...perhaps this is the effect of being at the bottom end of the Solent rather than tucked in somewhat at the top.
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Classic "rain before 7, fine before 11" day with the cold front passing over us in the morning. Started dull with moderate rain that cleared by around 10.30, followed by sunny spells and one short squally shower around 11.30. Maximum 16.6, last night's minimum 8.2. Moderate to fresh W wind.
Pretty much the same in Winchester where I have been today except that another short squally shower blew up around 2pm. Very much a day of sunshine and showers today.
June CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The orientation of this upcoming high pressure seems likely to be the factor that will determine whether my 14.3 guess has any chance <_<