GRHinPorts
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10.4 for me thanks
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14.5 for me thanks.
Can't really see a cold September at all, in spite of the unsettled forecast for the next couple of days.
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How often is August warmer than July?
I imagine it not that uncommon but surely the longer nights in August make it slightly unusual.
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16.6 for me thanks...Given current charts thats probably optimistic...but still.
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Can't say I feel much need to whine about the weather hereabouts. Here in the south its felt on the better side of average for the past 3 days. Apparently its set to change on Thursday to something worse. We'll see.
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There are some who enjoy AC gloom (albeit probably not when it's that cold)- primarily those who do a lot of work outdoors whose work benefits from dry cloudy weather, or who like the "nothingness".
However... I'm emphatically not one of them! On the other hand, a cold dry sunny high like in December 2001 and November 2005... bliss!
Sorry to be late joining this discussion but I am definitely a fan of AC gloom (both in Summer and Winter so long as it is not as cold as back at New Year - cold AC gloom is indeed the worst - thinking of the last week of Feb and first 3 weeks of March in 2006 here) both because its very easy to work outdoors in and IMO its an integral part of the English weather pattern.
Its a pity the transition to less summery weather this week has brought in such a showery regime in the South or otherwise I'd have to say I prefer this week to last.
November 2005 did yield some spectacular sunsets as a backdrop to Portsmouth Millenium tower on the drive in after to work so was not all bad.
However I would say my favourite season in recent times for working outdoors would have to have been this years Spring. Perpetually (or should that be homogenously) mild/warm with not too much rain. At the risk of sounding like Harold MacMillan "Ive never had it so good!"
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It is the total session time lost, any time made up is not relevant for this purpose.
Thanks Jack...I'm happy with my guess but just wanted to be clear.
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Day 1 - 19C
Day 2 - 19C
Day 3- 18C
Day 4 - 20C
Day 5 - 21C
Time lost: 185 minutes
Just a query with the time lost for bad weather. Given within the cricketing regulations there is the capacity to "make-up" time lost by playing later into the evening: Are we talking about the amount of time that play is stopped for OR the amount of time lost out of the match.
I imagine that we are talking about the former but if say it rained for 90 minutes in the morning session and then played continued for an hour later into the evening the various match reports would say only 30 minutes play was actually lost. So I think we just need this clarified.
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Oh I don't know - I'd say it's been 70% of people I've spoken to do not enjoy this kind of hot weather (luckily me & the missus both love it!). So I'm not entirely sure which way such a poll would go.
An easier one would be 'do you prefer winter or summer?' where I suspect there would be a huge majority go for summer. Mostly since average summer weather (18-22c some rain, some sun, lots of daylight) is vastly better than average winter weather (3-6c some rain, tiny bit of snow, very little sun, very little daylight).
Also, despite the UK having this reputation for being a bit rainy so many public and private big events take place in the Summer. The vagaries of the weather just adding to the fun so it would seem.
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Well in a way I can see Eugene's point about the current hot spell being a "fluke." This hot spell has seen a lot of northern blocking and yes, if the jet stream had been stronger we would probably have been looking at slow moving, southerly tracking lows giving the UK a soaking. But then again, all the hottest summers tend to have a good deal of nothern blocking, so you might as well say all our hot summers are "flukes" which I suppose in a way they are. But this surely, is what makes the weather such a mystery.
These heatwaves happen a bit too frequently though for them to be considered flukes IMO. I've lived in the UK since 1997 and I would say that on average we get a spell like this past week at least once in every 3 summers.
Who knows whether there will be another hot spell to come in this Summer. If we do would people start to consider this year on a par with 2003 and 2006?
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The 00Z GFS is suggesting an Azores High trying to ridge in from the SW from T120 but never quite succeeding in coming across the UK with low pressure centred over Scandanavia.
Would I be correct in suggesting this would bring a spell of anti-cyclonic gloom (he says hopefully as preparing to go out and work in another scorching day in the hot sun) but not much rain?
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Yes very true - the 2000s has seen the warmest January decade on record, and February the joint warmest with the 1990s. December rarely seems to be a really mild month nowadays, and if anything unlike other months of the year (Jan and Feb in particular) Decembers have cooled in the past 20 years; the warmest December of the 1990s was 6.4 (1994) and the warmest of the 2000s so far 6.5 (2006), whereas there were two Januarys and one February milder than this in the 2000s and three milder Februarys in the 1990s. Compare only two really mild Decembers in the last two decades with even milder Decembers in winters of the likes of 1953-54 and 1954-55 when far colder Januarys and Februarys followed them! And for a plus the Decembers of 1985 and 1986 were both above 6*C and much colder weather followed in Jan / Feb; also Dec 1984 was also relatively mild and very cold weather followed in Jan and Feb.
It remains a puzzling fact in the last two decades that whilst December shows no warming trend and if anything has been slightly colder, we are just not getting the cold weather in January and February
Indeed. December is the only month of the year that has actually been colder in the past 12 years than the 1971-2000 average. I have visions of a strong correctional (record breaking!) mild month coming along soon. Perhaps 8-8.5C. With the El Nino present perhaps it will be this year. Snow lovers will be at their wits end
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needs 18.2 from here
not impossible but will be quite close
Minimums look to be very high for the coming week so I'd say 18.2 is very acheivable in those circumstances.
http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cet/Does anyone have the comprehensive list of CET monitoring stations. In the US all stations used to compile temperature data are public.
Thanks for the link
I wonder how they arrived at the figure of a 0.1-0.3 downward revision for urban heat effect. Sounds rather arbitrary the way its written on that site but presuambly there is a bit of science to it.
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How are sites determined for the CET? Is there an even mix of rural, urban and semi-rural or is there a bias in favour of any one type?
My gut instinct would that CET-land has become more urbanised over the past 50 years (and hence warmer) but perhaps there are checks against this.
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If this late June pattern had manifested itself earlier, as I expected it would, my guess of 16ºC wouldn't be looking as daft as it does now! ....... Ah well, there is always next month.
The flip argument being had this heatwave come a week later my 14.3 would have looked quite clever :lol:
Would have made July a potentially easier month to call as well.
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However, despite the exceptionally hot July of 2006, July has in recent years seen more variability in the weather than many other months, and has seen a CET below average more often than other months in the year, since the mid 90s the Julys of 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2007 all recorded CETs below 16*C. Although on top of this, we have not had a significantly cool July (at least 1*C below the 61-90 mean) since 1988. July 2007 wasn't, 1993 wasn't. Prior to 1988, historically, Julys with CETs below 15*C were by no means unusual, and even sub 14*C Julys have occurred in the past, the last occasion of an exceptionally cool July (sub 14*C) was in 1922.
Further to this point over the past 12 years the average for July is only 0.17 above the 71-00 average (making it the 2nd lowest differential of all 12 months) where as the average differential is something like 0.67. This is remarkable when you consider the effect 2006 should have on the sample.
I'm therefore inclined to think we are "overdue" an above average July and I'm therefore going to submit:
17.6
I would have gone higher but I suspect there will be a brief (5 days?)cool spell after we get through the currently forecast heatwave for next week - the effects of which will mostly be on the June CET.
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My completely random guess: 30.1 at Wisley on Monday, June 29th.
Looking at the latest 12z GFS I think I can still have some optimism about my guess
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Mid July 33C somewhere in the Channel islands, maybe Jersey.
I think some areas of the UK especially the Southern will have a pretty strong drought. I don't think the temperatures will be record breaking though.
Russ.
Yes....The point about drought is should definitely not be underestimated IMO.
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I don't see why somewhere won't hit 34C this summer, the potential is certainly there I feel for a notable hot spell to develop.
This is pretty much just a guessing game...but my thoughts correlate exactly with yours.
If I was to guess a date, location and exact temp I would plump for 34.1 at Northolt on the 5th of August.
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Yes- that was me, I think I posted it sometime in 2007 (can't remember exactly when); yes I did cite 2001 as a classic "Mr. Average" and also gave 1996 as another example.
The pattern of a few hot days followed by a thunderstorm, at 2-3 week intervals, interspersed with a mix of cold wet days, "sunshine and showers" and the "average" 18-22C broken cloud and scattered showers type weather was what I meant- 2001 fitted that exactly.
The other types I can remember were:
"False Starter"- lots of warm dry sunny weather between April and June, followed by a marked deterioration in July/August; the classic example being 1992. 1998 I think I gave as another less clear-cut example (August wasn't as bad as July), 2004 also belonged here as did for the most part 1993 and 2000.
"July Takes All"- a hot sunny July the main feature, with a disappointing August. June varies in these summers from quite good (2006) to mixed (1994) and poor (1999). Often follows a poor May. 1989 and 1983 too had this pattern, although August wasn't as bad as in a classic example.
"Late Starter" (not sure exactly what I originally named this one); the opposite of False Starter with a poor May/June/early July leading to a much improved August. 1991 the best example, 1997 and 1990 probably belong here too.
"Peaks and Troughs"- somewhat like Mr Average but longer and more intense hot spells (1-2 weeks) followed by the same duration of poor (not average) weather. 2005 a superb example especially in June/July.
Only a few summers don't seem to show any of these patterns; principally those like 1995/1976/1959 which probably merit an additional "Stunner" category, and real oddballs like 2007 which had signs of both False Starter (cracking April) and Late Starter (much drier August). 2002 and 2008 were atypical False Starters; they both had warm months to start (April 2002 and May 2008) followed by a marked deterioration, but never managed any sunny hot weather at any time.
Cheers for that
In your original post I remember you going into quite a descriptive rant about 1992 which I found very funny
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Interesting to hear that it reminds some of 2000- I was just thinking how more and more it was starting to resemble summer 2001 here. The story of that summer was one of 2-3 day hot spells ending in thunder, followed by 1-2 weeks of mixed conditions- some really nasty cold wet stuff, some sun, and lots of "nothing" weather (ie mostly cloudy with sunny intervals and the odd shower, maxes in the high teens to low 20s). This persisted from mid-June till late August. It wasn't a great summer but it was better than either 2000 (awful July, only a couple of hot days in June, OK August) or 2002 (a really frustrating summer, warm-looking synoptics kept producing bags of cloud with no heatwaves).
Sof95 - Quite a long while back I remember reading a post by you where you described 5 different types of UK Summer*.
I cannot remember all the details but I distinctly remember you describing one of the 5 types as being "Mr Average" and presenting 2001 as a classic example. Your recollection of that Summer certainly tallies with my own.
* Sincere apologies if it were not you but I wouldn't mind reading about that again sometime as I felt it gave a very good description of the various possible UK summer weather patterns.
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glad you appreciate it
Not so confident with my 15.1 now as it looks like yesterday and today and perhaps even tomorrow will not move the CET up at all.
That only leaves 10 days to go. Although we are entering a warmer spell the CET may only climb slowly to begin with as moderate humidity levels prevent any really warm nights in the reliable timeframe. Also some of the higher maximas might be to the west of the CET zone
Assuming its still 13.7 up till the end of the 21st its not wildly impossible to imagine daily CETs of 18/18.5 (max24/25, mins 11/12) for the remainder of the month. If that was the case we would end exactly on 15.1.
Well done you if thats the case and I would like to add to those thanking you for the regular updates
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The premise of the OP seems to be that the highest maximum temps recorded in the Spring months determines what high maximum temps will be recorded in the Summer months. I am not so sure this argument stands up to scientific scrutiny but perhaps someone who knows better will be able to show it does.
Wisley is often a place that records high temperatures in Summer I have noticed.
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My completely random guess: 30.1 at Wisley on Monday, June 29th.
November CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I'll have 7.5 thanks.