GRHinPorts
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Sounds like 1954 was good match for 2007 and 2011.
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I think anyone who puts out seasonal forecasts had better start looking at what a large Nino could lead to in terms of weather patterns it could drive?
Ive been following this thread and wondering exactly what this El Nino might mean for our coming Summer, Autumn, Winter. No need for specifics but what kind of generalities might we expect. I seem to remember the August of 1997 was one of the warmest on record and the winter of 97/98 was very wet and mild.
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Thats 3 runs in a row the GFS has been going for a potent northerly over Easter. Surely too far out for any real accuracy but the evolution in each case makes sense. High pressure retracting west into the mid-Atlantic to bring about a classic Spring switcharound.
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It makes me think if will can get 20c this early on what could we get in summer if the conditions were right a complete contrast to 12 months ago thats for sure!
Absolutely! Trouble is there are only so many times a year we are going to see a pattern like this current one. Lets hope we are not exhausting them now as was the case in 2012 but that rather its another 2003 where a wet winter was followed by a warm sunny March and then a great Summer where all 3 months were above average.
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I have to say I've always liked the sound of June & August 1975 in particular (July was cloudier/changeable at times in the north though)- that summer perhaps suffers in many people's memories due to being surpassed heat/sun/drought-wise by 1976, but statistically it was the hottest since 1911.
Ive often wondered whether people conflate 1975 with 1976 in their memories to create one uber-magnificent Summer.
The number of people who are old enough to remember who tell me how wonderful the Summer of 1976 was and that it started with snow in June. Of course it was 1975 that had the snow in June.
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I would take anywhere in the Pacific North West of the USA. Basically the same mild climate as here but with guaranteed summers in July/August.
I'm unusual in that I like wet mild winters and was quite happy with the one we just had here as long as there is a decent summer every year to look forward. The trouble with the UK is that our interludes of high pressure from a warm direction are so totally random. We have them every year but they are just as likely to turn up in January as July (or March as it was in 2012 and now seemingly this year). Meanwhile the Atlantic train bringing in a succession of lows is also just as likely in July as January and all months in between with the result that many Summers go down the pan (e.g. 2012).
Interesting to see many NW members opting for rather extreme climates where Winter is glacial and Summer is blistering. I suspect this might be because the majority are weather junkies and just want to experience the extremes. Extremes we by and large miss in this country. Whether or not people would actually see a more extreme climate as desirable if they lived in one all their lives is a moot point. Such is human nature perhaps always seeing a greener grass next door.
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Is it June 13th which is the only day in summer not to make 30C ever? Maybe it will be this year.
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The rainfall in the autumn of 2000 should surely be included in the opening post. Still clinging onto the wettest ever season title as I type, and was considered to be a once in 250 years event at the time.
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Like many others I suspect, I would like a nice anti-cyclone to form, but given thats most unlikely and my preferences wont be considered by the weather gods, I sort of hope we do break all wet rainfall records just for the notability of that.
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We will have invented weather control, and our weather will consist mainly of broken cloud and sunny intervals, but with occasional belts of frontal rain, amounting to about 50-70mm per month in the east and 80-100mm in most parts of the west. The original idea will have been to time rain belts only to arrive overnight, but following a dispute with Germany over the issue that this would result in rain belts mostly reaching Germany during daylight hours, we will have had to settle for randomly-timed rain belts. Daytime temperatures will range from 21 or 22C in summer, to 13 or 14C in winter, and minimum temperatures will range from 13C in summer to 7C in winter. Daytime maximum temperatures above 22C, overnight temperatures below 7C, thunderstorms, convective precipitation, snow, fog and frost will all be illegal under the new Health and Safety regulations.
On the plus side we will have solved anthrpogenic global warming, despite dramatically increasing the anthropogenic influence on our climate.
I think this is great idea...but...would people really enjoy living in such a climate or not I wonder?
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That 1906 heatwave was incredible. 35.6C in September! If this heat extended into Sept I would not be surprised to see a 30C recorded though.
1906 saw two enormous earthquakes in the April in San Francisco and the August in Valparaiso. I wonder if that might have knocked weather patterns around all over the world.
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Finally..and absolutely pouring down here now. First rain here since the night of the 2nd/3rd of July.
And just heard a rumble of thunder for the first time in these parts in some years.
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Quite a definite change in the last 2 hours. Much windier and darker with all sunshine gone. Still as humid as all get out. The rain definitely feels on the way.
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Looking at the latest radar the rain over N France is really struggling to move north. This has all hallmarks of a potential forecasting disaster, indeed there could be a lot of egg on a lot of faces in Exeter this evening.
Indeed.
Its so still here now that it would seem impossible we could be importing any moisture from anywhere. Home grown maybe because it feels very humid.
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... but temperatures alone do not a season define.
early march more often then not is certainly spring. early spring flowers are in bloom, daylength, sun strength, birdsong, all point to it being spring.
early june spring? (1st - 20th) ... nah... trees are in full leaf, plant growth is at its maximum, daylength/sun strength/hight..
i think the meterological spring is the right one, not the quarter day definition.
I agree with this bit about temperatures.
Actually though I think there is a bit of human conditioning at work here as well by which I mean that as we live through the seasons we know what to expect and what to look forward to. Hence in early December we look forward to winter, early March we look forward to Spring, early June to Summer and so on.
And perhaps on occasion our anticipation of the season runs ahead of the reality. Certainly I have lost count of the times I have felt the weather is not summery, wintry, springlike in early June, December et al. Only to have things look more appropriately season within mere weeks.
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Glorious blue skies here and calm winds! We are supposed to be getting torrential heavy rain sometime today but no sign of it yet.
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june is the sunniest month of the year I believe,when the sun is out it can feel warmer at 18 in the sun than 24 and cloudy.june in recent years have been better than the other two summer months
Is it the sunniest month though because of the extra day length? Because that might distort the statistics.
I agree 18 in the sun can feel warmer than 24 in the cloud especially if there is a wind blowing with the latter.
The fact that June has been the better of the summer months in recent times is really an indication of how poor the summers have been since 2006.
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To develop this further I definitely have less expectations of June as a summer month than I do of July and August. The CET averages back this up with the latter 2 months being over 2 degrees warmer. This in spite of June having the longest days of the year. Its all because of the lag effect in temperature change from one season to the next I guess.
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Much of the USA gets much better summers than what we get here on average in the UK however it would definitely not be enough for me to compensate for the colder winters the two thirds of the North Eastern part of that country has to endure.
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Its interesting how varied peoples preferences and shows we don't necessarily all like the same weather patterns. I for one would quite happily never see snow again in my life - Its just so gawdamn white! I would quite happily take both Chongqing and Campbell Island over somewhere like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syracuse,_New_York#Geography_and_climate
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OK...on the subject of early September/early March....I thought that technically the seasons really only start on the 21st of the quarterly months. i.e Summer runs from June 21-September 21 or the solstice to the equinox.
I thought I had heard that its only in the meteorological world that the seasons run from the 1st of the quarterly months to enable the simple collection of statistical data.
Anyway its very much of how the weather feels in September/March as to how you are likely to describe it as Summer or Winter. March this year definitely winter. September 2006 definitely summer.
For what its worth the CET temperature average for September 1st-21st is higher than what it is for June 1st-21st. So statistically the warmest 3 month period of the year must be from June 21st - September 21st. Its worthwhile holding onto this data in your head when the season (whichever season) starts disappointingly as to what we might expect of it.
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I think if that were the case we would see more examples from the 19th century, perhaps the actual reason other than random chance might lie in different albedo created by whatever agricultural trends dominated in central England around 1833 to 1846. The fact that these anomalous months are both in late spring suggests maybe a background signal of some sort arising from environmental conditions. It also seems to me that only the 17th century portion of the CET is ever really questioned as to exposure and screening issues and thanks to Mr. Maunder there were very few warm months and none that linger in the top five today.
As to what those trends might have been, not really my area of expertise, some crop that presents a dark absorbing surface in May-June that has seen a decline in production since those days would be what to look for. Alternately, perhaps with the high solar angle and the clarity of the sky in those early days of the Industrial age, a clear spell of weather might bubble up a little faster. I'm very familiar with Toronto records and the extremes of warmth from start of data (1840) to about 1895 were never out of line with the concept of a gradually warming climate. The summer of 1854 looks about like 1936 minus three degrees on the hottest days. So whatever was happening in Britain was not a global phenomenon affecting variability.
A third possibility that I could study further at my leisure would be a slowly-moving background signal that was peaking in May in the 1830s and June in the 1840s, perhaps went dormant for a while, traces could be inferred in July 1868 then August 1911. With the general warming of climate that background signal has probably been overwhelmed by a higher jet stream and might not be easy to find but one could go back from 1833 and look at earlier trends to see if it was there on some time scale. Seems like a 150-250 year sort of cycle. A fourth and final point would be that solar activity was high after the Dalton ended around 1827 and the 1837, 1848, 1860 and 1870 peaks were similar to 20th century intensity, albeit not as sustained. That warm May in 1833 was followed by a very mild winter.
Hmmm....I dont really know enough to debate this further. All I can say is I think it would be truly exceptional if we were ever to experience a May like 1833 or a June like 1846.
Nothing in any of our lives is remotely comparable to what those years delivered for that time of the year. They are simply unimaginable.
By comparison this July is pretty run of the mill since we only have to think back to 2006 for a rather similar month.
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Funny my memory of this month is more about the last week of the month rather than the heat before that. Part of this is because I spent the 10th-20th in the south of France and whilst it was hot down there it was nothing out of the ordinary. The week running up to the tragic death of Lady Di though has stuck in my head as being terribly stormy, dark and gloomy. More like November than August.
This preceded a lovely spell of weather in September that was to last almost 6 weeks of unbroken warm sunshine.
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Sorry if this is off topic but I see people are mentioning the 1833 May CET figure of 15.2. I just wonder if both this figure and also the June 1846 CET figure of 18.2 might be seen as highly dubious so far above the norm are they.
May 1833 is 1.5 degrees above anything we have seen in all our generally considered warmer lifetimes. June 1846 eclipses every other June in sight with even June 1976 only "managing" 17.0 and that is the only time June has reached such a figure since 1900!
Is it at all possible that back in 1833 and 1846 the measuring equipment of the day could not accurately measure extreme heat? i.e. both months were hot, but not that hot.
Summer 2014 thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Id like to stay optimistic for our summer prospects...BUT... at the moment this year feels more like 2002 than any other (I have lived in the UK since 1997). Looking at the CET for the year so far we are quite some way in advance of where we should be as an average and my feeling at some point there will be a correction.
2002 is a good fit because till the end of May we were 4.5 ahead of where we should have been on average but a disappointing nothing summer ensured we didnt go off the chart for warmth. Still came in at 10.61 for the year which is I think the 3rd highest ever after 2006 and 2011.
So far 2014 is 4 degrees above average till the end of March and you would think April will add at least another degree to that. Got to be a correction at some point I figure. Maybe not wet since we had such a deluge in the winter but a correction of the warmth.