nsrobins

Sitting in the MCS (Mucky Crappy Stuff) in Fredericksburg. A few decent CGs but nothing else. 16Z HRRR has more discrete cells forming West of this area from 21Z (OFB, maybe forward edge of DL, but still in 65C dps) with shear enough to turn them in the lower levels (the RAP hodo has decent directional shear up to H400) so in a while I'll probably ditch Austin for San Angelo with cutting my mileage down for tomorrow for the trip North also on my mind.

Perhaps the ongoing MCS has compromised the expected MCS? I am still expecting a few stronger cells today beneath the main rain band, but according to update may have to adjust a bit east from here.

Not that my confidence in either the SPC or my own forecasting skills is to be relied on given recent events, I'm currently in Brady, TX and planning to head down to Junction, TX on the I10 for overnight. Hoping to catch the MCS show later but more importantly I'd like to be able to chase anything that develops beneath the main rain band Weds - but this is conditional on fine tuning based on RAP first thing in the morning. Otherwise I still have a move North in mind on Thursday to the TX Panhandle ready for Fri/Sat activities.

Hi Guys. Hope your super long drive is over soon. I too have transferred south to Buffalo, TX (taking a few back routes on the way) to play with anything that develops in S TX Tuesday. I agree Thurs onwards looking juicy at the moment - here's hoping. I have a blog up and running, and I too got some footage of the small funnels in W KS on Saturday evening. We may meet again. www.neilweatherblog.wordpress.com

Hi Paul and the team - thanks for the exciting few hours last night. Lost contact and with no data stream headed straight for Colby to sit out the follow-up squall and watch the lightning. Got some nice footage of the funnel(s) we saw near Cheyenne Wells. Today I managed to get across to N of Kansas City by early afternoon but by then it was clear the risk was being bombed out by another MCS spoiler,so bust my chase and am now heading south (currently Nevada, MO) to be in position for a structure chase in C TX tomorrow. I'd like to visit The Alamo on Tuesday maybe assuming the far south TX risk doesn't tempt me. Might catch-up with you guys again in the week. I see there's a beautiful supercell near Waco - bum!

I ditched the crud in SW OK and have motored up to in Meade looking at a developing Cu field to my West. Latest mesoscale pushing a plume of higher dps up between the DL and the OFB. SRHs will be high just to the east of the synoptic low due in OK Panhandle by 23Z. Hoping for a discrete supercell and tornados possible.

Well I do have a pain in all the diodes down my left side. A prize of a free beer for anyone making the link on that one LOL. I'm just S of Arnett, OK on the west edge of the anvil-crud-vection. Considering a shuffle east from here to see how the cell in SW OK develops - had a few rotation markers on it in last half hour.

I've just posted on my blog that today (May 9h) I will be looking to moderate distance with potential and head up to Laverne, OK and monitor with a chili burrito. The 11Z RAP adjusts the surface low a tad back W at 20Z and consequently hodos appear a bit more favourable in far W OK than they were earlier. It all depends on this morning's activity moving away which it might be reluctant to do given it's trajectory. I'll keep track of your location and if I appear on your tail I'll give you a wave. Good luck today - the greatest danger might be the numbers on the roads.

In Ekektra,TX under what remains of a forecourt. Just done a very careful trip from Vernon and there is clear damage all over - lorries overturned, trees down, but difficult to say if it was tornadic or not although the cell I've been tailing had a long-lived circulation and confirmed tornado. Massive amount of water everywhere. If you guys are planning to go into dusk, usual care required as this lot is a messy mix of multiple hail cores and sporadic rotation. Perhaps I could join you for tomorrow - a day that is less likely to be suitable for a lone ranger than today was.

Hi Paul. Dress rehearsal today for the show tomorrow? I'm thinking any cells that stay fairly discrete in the rich regime that exists just south of the loosely defined OFB draped just north of the Red River now will be the most likely to produce rotation, and have therefore located myself to Vernon now. It's cloudy with the odd drop of rain but the almost total cloud cover is not especially low. On visible there's a notch of cleaner air pushing under the current cluster near AMA and this is the area I'm hoping will generate cells from 20Z. You're chances of getting onto something once you pick-up all your guests are quite realistic IMO, maybe up towards Bowie on the 287. Good luck and needless to say safe chasing as it could end up being a dodge-ball chase as it gets dark and the LLJ increases vorticity. PS: It is proving very difficult to analyse, map-read and drive all at the same time!

There is a cell about 6 miles to my West that has had a TVS and has some low level gate. I'm just off to collect my mifi - might go an take a look before it gets dark here.

Indeed Nick - I don't need mesonet to tell me the atmosphere is strongly unstable here - super rich out there. I'm nipping out to the local UPS depot to collect my mifi and antenna in about an hour - might catch something. In the meantime, where did I pack the gaffer tape LOL?

Days Inn - Denton. Equipment set-up and static test. Ironically may not have to go anywhere to see something pass over in next three hours! Now tracking my mifi delivery - it was refused at reception despite clear instructions. Should add I'm solo but hope to meet up with the tour at some point - maybe under a meso tomorrow LOL

Friday moving into MDT zone now. Sat looking silly. Cells plunging across the DL into SW OK riding circa 65kn H400 jet - not for the faint hearted but at least the topography and road grid is favourable - something a lone chaser like me appreciates! I won't be out tonight - motel booked and gear to set up. Then it's three nights of action before a few days down (already have the Greensburg memorial on my radar - somewhere every chaser should visit IMO)

Not a bad location IMO, although watch those obs for a DL adjustment! Last evening of virtual targets. Tomorrow for ten days it's for real!

Becoming increasingly juicy for Tour 1 Day 1 on Saturday and might only be 3hrs from DFW. I expect at least a MDT from SPC in the Friday update. My GPS plug doesnt arrive until Sat do I might be tugging at the tail of the Sherman caravan for this one lol.

GFS firming up and will be in NAM range by tomorrow morning. Sat 9th looking like a higher end play on the DL in W OK, far SW KS. An impressive 75kn H50 streak will add plenty of shear above high cape just east of the DL. I predict a possible 30% risk Day 5 in SPC's update this morning. Big plains rollers drifting across W OK. Nice!

SPC have a 15% probability now for OK/TX for Sat 9th. Tour 1 going to hit the ground running by the looks of things. I'm almost there with prep - mifi and booster booked, car paid (note excess insurance seperate to reduce cost at desk), first night hotel Days Inn Denton Thurs/Fri if anyone is in the area for a catch-up.

Hi PaulWe are meeting now to discuss it. ATM I am solo until at least the 13th. Tony may come out then otherwise leave it until outlook looks higher end risk (maybe end May). I am going to San Diego fir business 18th May and my chase is tied in with that. Whatever I'll see you out and about from end of next week. Neil

The flow and upper pattern across the CONUS becomes more favourable from the 5th May and extended GFS has a few potential risk days, especially 10th with a 70kn H500 above some nice surface instability in N KS area. It would be fair to say the H500s aren't high end charts in terms of inducing deep shear but there will definitely be opportunities to be had, and maybe less risk means more gain with numbers on the roads lower. As I do final preparations for my tour starting 7th May things are looking OK at the moment.

I'll be hoping to hit the ground running on the 7th Paul and I'm planning on being joined by Tony Gilbert from the 12th. If we don't meet under (or rather close to) a decent wall cloud we should at least share a steak or two one evening 😀 The only slight concern is the number of chasers that might converge on isolated supercells - it could get quite lively on the roads.

Extended GFS brings moisture and troughing back into the Plains from 6th May. Upper air pattern looks more favourable moving from 7th May into second week May. I am therefore likely to hit the go button on a chase 7th - 17th May, hoping for two or three decent events. Of course you can never be sure but history dictates that the general pattern at the 10 day range is pretty well modelled these days. The finer details of course will be left to much nearer the time - namely between your first coffee of the morning and the lunchtime chilli burrito.

As Paul said the plains more or less shut down now for a week at least. Some minor events possible but the moisture doesn't return until around 5th May

Surprised SPC don't have an Enhanced for C TX this evening. Sharp DL and plenty of moisture ahead of it with impressive instability Abilene and points East. Looped hodos scream a sig tor risk. Am I missing something?

Is it me or is the SPC getting a little more cautious these days - not so much in the categorical system as I quite like the split of slight into marginal and enhanced, but in their wording. It was clear (or it could be strongly argued I should say) that last night was unlikely to produce strong tornados of any significance but in their update Day 1 they used 'intense' to describe any tornado that formed (TX/AR region). The season is only a third of the way through but we've already seen plenty of unfulfilled expectation and a total bust or two. If I'm being 'virtual-centric' then I apologise. I may see things much more clearly once I'm tucking into my cheerios at the Great Western, Lewisville