nsrobins

Thanks Stu - nice images.Are you out until the weekend - looks promising.

Well the start of Tour 3 could be explosive or I'm no judge of the GFS.A classic pattern develops late this week and through the weekend with what looks like the richest moisture return into the central plains this year ahead of an upper low and attendant DL moving off the high terrain. There's probably no D5-6 on SPC yet because the potential targets are too numerous!Saturday into Sunday could be big for W KS up into SW NE. Should monitor the models once into NAM range.

If the cell S of Midland isn't producing it should be. Decent hook signature and tight couplet now.

Yep SW cell about to go Tor warned - couplet tightening.

Meso tightening on the Big Spring Cell and next cell to the SW looking better organised too. Conditions becoming more favourable IMO in next hour for a tornado or two.

Yes think it is - meandering towards Big Spring, Having a problem getting organised though and fairly high-based but has been producing wall clouds on and off for half an hour.

Bit of a punt this one but looking at latest obs and ppn distribution as of 18Z we might have a chance of isolated supercell development in the Snyder, TX area by 21Z this evening.It's very dependant on OFBs but I'm thinking a juxtaposition of said outflow confluence from the current southern area of cells and the one in the southern panhandle may enhance hodos enough to rotate developing storms in the I20 region and above area.

Hello Tom - could you suggest a translator to use to decipher that?

Well we have cool dome modification now - that's a new one to me.Note to myself before going out next season: Find out about cool dome modification! Short-term tornado risk enhanced - cell near Odessa looks likely.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0181.html Tornado Watch issued for areas previously identified. One assumes the team is heading SW but the live stream and position tracker is not working for me.

That's fascinating Paul. I'd be very interested in seeing the video as will many others I expect - decent footage of these events is very rare.

The video will be telling as the movement of these little known phenomena has been reported as mainly horizontal but often non-uniform in both velocity and vector.Many theories as to their cause and structure.

I don't disagree with the target that's slightly further South. Infact I often give more weight to DL and any bulge over wind vectors in these TX/NM set-ups so going on 09Z RAP I might shift down to Midland/Odessa TX. I didn't know the team was in Carlsbad but it's not a bad place to start the morning.

I think SPC might be underdoing tor chances a tad this evening with the 2% cover. True no inhibition to speak of so ppn might be a bit messy but any discrete cells that maintain their form until the LLJ picks-up might well produce. There is a sharp directional shift at around 800mb from 21Z.The DL stays in NM so I'd be getting down the I27 towards Brownfield TX or even Hobbs, NM today.

Goodland KS nearer the better upper flow, further west into CO for initiation and low-;level shear generated by the Denver Low.A trip too far maybe but in virtual land I'd be looking at Limon, CO or even areas northeast of Denver Metro for this one.

Good luck tour 2! I had posted some musings on the T2 outlook thread but will have another look later. Extreme W CO for me this evening. Note: could be decent set-up for the famous DCZ (Denver convergence zone)

Models continue the scenario for upslope activity along the front range in W CO Weds through Thurs this week.Actually moisture return is impressive and with an easterly at the surface and a WSW aloft, deep directional shear will provide ample opportunity for rotating supercells meandering down the slope.Weds evening could be a Burlington I70 corridor special.

Not necessarily, but the season has been unusual it has to be said - and the incredible distance already covered by Tour 1 is testimony to that.It is very hard to predict what the rest of May and June has in store, but I wouldn't put it past Mother Nature to deliver a multi-day outbreak at some point in classic chase territory.The big question is - when?

The slow moving pattern this week does allow for moisture return into the central and high plains, with the emphasis on upslope activity. The primary areas of interest are likely to be E CO and NW KS into W NE in my opinion. A sort of late season feel mid-season if you get my drift.

Latest obs indicate a rather diffuse DL lies along the I87 roughly Casper to Sheridan WY. There is enough buoyancy to initiate convection to the NE of this line in the next hour IMO so Gillette up to the Custer National Park still looks roughly right.Likely to be medium based heights despite the SPC guidance but enough SRH exists to generate rotation. CIN drops away from about 20Z.All the best.

Reasonable chance this one in an otherwise meagre spell just now.There's enough moisture return to generate 1200 or so CAPE in response to surface heat and a cool upper regime in the region N WY and S MT. RAP triggers convection in the nook of the DL and east/west trough with shear seemingly able to overcome modest CAPE to generate rotating updrafts.Actually hodos for far SE MT look suitably curved to me - only problem might be the base height which when not surface based precludes tornado chances but with that directional shear I wouldn't rule out a tornado and anyway structure should be very impressive with the landscape as a backdrop. Early lunch for me at Gillette, WY but I will expect to move North on initiation

Stormchasing is without doubt one of the more 'challenging' pursuits when it comes to balancing the excitement and thrill of severe weather with the potential effects it has on life and property.I think I speak for all enthusiasts of supercell thunderstorms, derechos and tornados when I say it has nothing to do with the potential harm these things bring, but everything to do with the wonder and majesty of the cloudscapes and the sheer scale of the mechanisms involved. Nature unhindered. Yes a spectacular tornado may mean deaths, but that will happen regardless of whether anyone is chasing it or not. In fact many lives are saved because people are chasing and watching and reporting. I understand your sentiments, but perhaps this forum is not for you?

Good luck Jacquie and good to see Tony is with you for a spell. Don't run into any news crews though - Tony loves the cameras

Initiation down the DL a bit early for me. It's not the main play though as it's all about the WF and OFB interplay and far S NE is ripe and under the gun now and better helicity than further south.Could be a couple of strong tornados if cells stay south of the boundary.

Fair play - very close to my original target.The WF continues to shuffle north ahead of an OFB located along or just north of the NE/KS line.I see latest MD suggests inhibition decays in next hour or so in face of low 80s surface ts and high dps in said area. Let's get ready to rumble!