nsrobins

Watching Ian. I think you may need to get further North across the border with SD - cap breaking SW SD from 22.30Z looking at latest.Probably a bit too late a show for me as up early but good luck.

Eh, WTF LOL. I feel like the Lotus F1 pit team who have been given 12 seconds notice to get the tyres ready for a pit stop.Didn't really expect to see you going for this, but there is indeed nice looking numbers in a target area of Chadron NE to Hot Springs SD (have you been up here already this year?)Decent nose of moisture into the WY border area undercutting the approaching trough with impressive CAPE actually and EHI of 6+ and deep SRH of 350 (RAP 22Z). A bit of upslope, heating, etc and the cap should pop right over my target area.A long trek so good luck with it.

Hope you and all Tour 4 are safe and sound back in blighty.Your contribution and stream of updates was very much appreciated, despite having some difficult situations to contend with at times.

Wkrn Nashville streaming developing tornado situation in TN at the moment: http://www.wkrn.com/category/240149/livestream

Excellent. I'll put that in a translator when I get home and see how it matches up with the audio

Unfortunately I am not able to view the videos here at work. I would therefore very much appreciate a transcript of the dialogue, with footnotes describing what people are wearing and where in the location they are. The rest I will piece together, relying on a combination of my esoteric personality and a very vivid imagination

Thanks for the brief insight into the 'other' side of storm chasing, Tom. Being reminded once in a while of the destructive effects of these incredible storms, both on property and people's lives, is I believe an inportant part of appreciating and understanding the whole subject. May 2013 has in my opinion been a scene change for the emerging industry known as 'weather tourism'. It may see the introduction of proposals to control or regulate the industry: In the US the right to choose what you do and where you go (within the law) is engrained into the pysche of all Americans, but the events of May 31st especially is prompting people to ask questions about safety. The shear numbers of vehicles on the roads that evening - most of them petrified residents fleeing for their lives admitedly - didn't help when quick routes for escape became limited.You can argue all you like about chasers 'contributing to the science' and 'helping to increase warning times by observation and reporting' but there is a sizeable minority of chasers who are intent only on the money shot, getting as close as they can to capture dollar value footage for sale to the highest bidder. The actions of these groups may eventually spoil the thrill and enjoyment for the rest of us who only want to experience it for what it is.For me, and undoubtedly for the majority of the groups who chase each season, it's about understanding, forecasting, experiencing and learning. If the authorities dictate that because of the actions of a few individuals - the Yahoos - that can no longer be allowed to go untethered, then it will be a very sad day for all weather enthusiasts. A licence to chase? It may not be far off.

I quite like the area around Ulysses, KS for a DL/shear combination. There may be a few areas that could yield a decent risk later as the LLJ kicks in as Paul says but for the best chance of a few hours of more discrete possibilities west is best. The cold front on latest synoptic charts sort of bends back north in NW KS and this may keep better quality moisture in my target area for longer. Good hunting guys

Good news Tom. That area is especially picturesque but watch out for Indians. (sorry, is that politically incorrect?)

I was looking at the Clayton, NM area earlier this afternoon. Some shear - enough to build a few supecells perhaps - and the high ground to the Northwest might help. A lozenge of 60F dp noses into the area from 20Z.

I used T4 because there isn't a T5 - Schwarzanegger is unavailable

The start of Tour 4 is likely to see the team headng up to the Northern Plains of MT and the Dakotas as the pattern undergoes a typical transition North. The jet axis and trough/ridge pattern is expected to pull modified moisture quiet a way up, even towards the Canadian border at times, whilst the south settles into an upper ridge. According to GFS Friday afternoon might be interesting in eastern SD but that's a long way off.

Bust! Note tornado reports from Florida associated with the TS.

Call me weird, but I quite like the far NE corner of NM this evening. Not much mention on SPC but flow, topography and 60F+ moisture may be enough to promote cells in this region.Either that or a trip right down to the high plains of SW TX - phew, what a scorcher. Good luck.

I understand they are updating the broadcast to reference the EF5 on the 31st too.

I can't imagine how you must be feeling. I'd be gutted if I couldn't go, knowing how excited I am in the build-up. Chin-up and here's to massive supercells and even bigger steaks next year.

What are you doing up late again? The ppn composites are a valuable tool for a 'quick' guide to initiation location, and at some point when I can squeeze some time out from my other research stuff I'll do a decent retrospective analysis of the main models with respect performance on ppn distribution, especially as you say on the tricky marginal days when you're fishing around for opportunities (and not the busy days running from multi-tornadic supercells near rivers and blocked highways). I feel a presentation at the September TORRO conference in the making . . . .

Another bust from HRRR Paul LOL. Will put this in the bank again - development in both of my targets failed to materialise, with upslope in the dryer air providing the best images.If I did this for a living I'd be on jobseekers allowance in no time. Mind you, at least I'd be able to study the ins and outs of why things develop and why at other times they don't.

Interesting. I'm actually wondering if I might be missing another potential target which the 12Z HRRR has highlighted - namely the OK/TX line around Hollis to Magnum. Certainly the instability is greater here and it's on the north side of the low in easterly flow but I'm not sure what HRRR is using to trigger initiation. The area is much more likely to be capped until 22Z plus.Go with Lubbock (too far west IMO)/Abilene or stay very local and risk the better structure and shear but stronger cap. TBH I can't see where the SPC are getting the tornado risk from. Based on model blend of SRH and EHI I'd be putting the higher risk in far SW OK across to AMA this evening, but I'm only an amateur! I can understand the vectors (E at surface and W at 500mb) but the flow is so weak it's not transposing into the SRH.

A bit of south Caprock Magic might be the play today as an upslope regime prevails ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Shear and instability don't look very well positioned but my preference would be the cusp of the DL bulge where inhibition erodes enough to release the 1800+ CAPE later on. Also sharply backing surface winds riding into the extended trough feature here. So down to the I80 for me around Abilene, TX although this might be a bit too far SW depending on recovery and DL incursion. Edit: A bit of time to kill while my prawn noodles mature takes me into the HRRR (09Z run) and I see it wants to develop some sturdy looking cells a bit further east around Albany/Breckenridge by 21Z. I'm going to call it's bluff because I don't think the DL will get far enough east and I'll stick with Abilene but Stamford on the I277 would give you options either way. Key: Bold type - primary target Italic bold - secondary should the primary fail which is likely underline - tertiary target in the almost certain eventuality that the secondary target is as wrong as the primary PS: CAP should not be as much of a problem as last night

Things did get going in the target area and far W OK Panhandle but not until 03Z or so. As you say, forcing not strong enough until then to break the cap. Weds sees potential for some Caprock Magic later.

Internet fixed. Contractors cut through a main cable near Portsmouth and two whole postcode areas were down for over 24 hours. Ouch. The DL has got into the central OK Panhandle and to about AMA. Max surface flow from the ESE seems to be focussed on this area with a Cu field on latest sat.Not a huge evening in store but potential for some decent structure and hail at least between 22Z and 02Z Weds.

Not questioning the data and synopsis from NWS, but from the numerous footage clips and reports I've seen I have to ask 'when is a multi-vortex, cyclic ground-level mesocyclone a tornado proper?' I don't think it spent too much of it's life as a contiguous mainly single-circulation tube but rather a ragged system of spin-ups and threaded vortices. Very violent agreed, but does that maximum width really reflect a large wedge or as I say the maximum extent of the rapidly cycling multiple areas of spin within the main meso. Discuss.

I'm 'internetus-interuptus' at home due to the inadequacies of Virgin Media, but a quick look during lunchtime at work reveals some decent recovery in moisture across the risk area today. Coupled with very high temps this generates 3000+ CAPE in an area that extends into the panhandle. Backed ESE flow into the DL region promises to generate convection, and although RAP initiates a cell or two in C OK, I'd be sitting just NE of the broad low centre around Liberal, KS Good luck and I'll look forward to seeing what happened in the morning

That broadcast on KFOR that has sparked controversy: http://newsok.com/multimedia/video/2431324673001 And another article of interest: http://newsok.com/article/3841422?slideout=1