nsrobins

Still looking like a multi-day outbreak in OK/KS Sat and Sun, although only GFS to work on still.Rich moisture transport circa 70+ dps pushing into the warm sector and a deepening surface low on the KS/CO border driving impressive shear values. Sat night could be major.

What is the schedule for this year, Paul? I may be in the States for work mid-May and if so will likely get a few days off to chase - would be great to meet up.

All quiet on the western front with the death ridge Nothing doing until after Easter I would think.

The moderate risk is largely for hail. The more significant tornado risk lies further south down the I35 towards Gainesville TX IMO.A sounding here shows ample shear and the sort of looped hodograph that should generate helicity once the cap breaks. I might locate myself a tad further towards DFW - say Denton, TX - and look to chase NW into the late afternoon towards the Sherman area. Roads here OK so long as you avoid the lakes.

Yes - second MDT of the season and it's only mid-April. Lifting warm front with attendant upper 60s dp gulf air across E OK Sun afternoon. Substantial risk of tornadic supercells near the triple point I would think. It is worth noting that some models push the CF through rather quickly which would imply the best conditions may be further south into N TX.

For the MOD risk tonight I would like to be on the I35 corridor between arkadelphia and Malvern for the discrete cells lower down the dl. Not too Far East though don't like the trees in these set-ups

I have limited access to data where I am today but a quick look at GFS indicates the risk this evening has shifted west to SW/CS OK with 3000+ cape and favourable hodos 18Z.Watch for supercells forming on the DL bulge and migrating into the warm sector.

Yep looking fairly tasty SW OK Weds evening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ And there it is on cue Paul. What are your plans for this season?

Update on potential 27th - don't underestimate the power of the dryline.

A Happy New Year to all you storm fanatics as we start another season. Slight Risk AR and Ozarks Thursday 27.3.14 night might be worth a look as moderate dps around 17C spread into the region - limited CAPE if realised may yield a few tornados with the decent looking shear. And so it begins.

Residents in N Wales and Merseyside should take this warning seriously.If current imagery and data is correct, sting-jet conditions could potentially deliver gusts in excess of 100mph anywhere in this region this afternoon. Travel should be avoided and arrangements for early closures, etc may be warranted.

So the 2013 touring season has finally ended. A big thank you to all involved for reporting and sharing the excitement, the thrills, the drama and at times the tradegy.This year will of course be remembered for the Moore and El Reno, OK events and maybe the goalposts have shifted a bit now the community has lost chasers in the field. My personal opinion is that the chase will go on, and if some sort of regulation or guidance is proposed to govern the actions of storm chasers, it will take several years if at all to introduce.Continued diligence, respect for the potential power of these storms and an ongoing desire to learn more about them is the way forward in my opinion. I'll look forward to joining you all again - either virtually or in person - on the Plains next year.

You're interest in the new southern cell is attracting viewers

A lot going on in E SD and ND region. I'm on board.

looks like I got his one wrong - but so did the earlier models TBH. Warm layer aloft has killed the instability north of S KS area, with just the NM/TX area left. Something may creep through by 00Z but my target area looks like a bust as it stands.

Oh wow that's lovely. I can view Vimeo here at work as it gets through the Weg gestapo.<br />I love the way you see the time-lapse CG lightning in fine detail.

Thought I might start this one as there's a cheeky set-up along the DL extending from the NE corner down the CO line into TX.Really plenty of moisture creating instability in excess of 4000 J/kg mx CAPE along the CO/NE-KS line, with inhibition failing by 21Z.Hodos suggest not a huge amount of turn with height but local enhancements will surely provide ample vorticity to create some big supercells - mainly hailers (and super size hail possible) but a tornado can't be ruled out and for this reason I'm looking at the northern subtle DL bulge whcih should promote developments on a line Limon to Brush with storms moving SE towards Yuma, CO and the I59.

The storm that has developed at my original target of Anton, CO looks reasonable. There are obviously ongoing signal problems as hardly any of the handful of chasers is currently getting a stream out. Personally I would stay on the Anton to Akron line and work NE to Yuma. I can't get Storm vectors - I assume they are sluggishly moving ESE?

Tor chances as suspected up to 5% and look maximised close to a subtle boundary setting-up east of the synoptic front, closer to the CO/NE line.I'd be looking at the line Wray to Holyoke, CO for cells rolling in off the upslope and engaging with the boundary here.

No it isn't. Infact, Tuesday looks better. I like the area Akron to Anton, CO.

Good result again chaps - well done.A fairly active upslope/dryline set-up will prevail for Mon to Weds with far W KS/E CO tonight transfering to the OK Panhandle/CO interface and I expect tornado risks to be adjusted upwards on all three days.

That cell that's developed over the lakes around Hyannis looks likely. Clear air to it's SW.Note my estimate of vectors was a bit out earlier. Storm motion due SE.Can't see what's going on so for us here it really is virtual work.

Yep a shame we can't see the cell you are on. I know the temptation is to shuffle up to the tor warned cell further North but stay close to where you are and cells that develop and add on to the northern point of the current OFB line will be increasingly likely to rotate.Already a decent mid-level rotation on the Grant cell.

Hello Tour 4. Concur with Sam in that the cell you are on is moving into a much more favourable environment over the next hour or so and could well start to do interesting things. If it can get North and East of North Platte the EHI really cranks up. Yep stream now up on tnvideos and chaser tv - I think your count is about to rise significantly LOL