nsrobins

If you are off out this afternoon, you nay have to shuffle a tad south given current obs showing OFB surging west below DFW.

I can't see any reason why supercells won't develop this afternoon in central TX, so long as current complex continues to shuffle it's way off S and E this morning.As is often the case the receding MCS and it's associated OFB may well enhance EHI locally and a few tornadoes are possible. Pretty much DFW would be my initial target but for chasing purposes I might set-up just to the E of the metro in Terrell, TX with good road options. I'll keep half an eye on things with the other half on the Brazil v Croatia match.

Thanks for the update and hope Tour 3 goes out on a high. PS: Could be a bonus chase on later Thurs as things might fire on or just East of DFW.

Indeed. I think the key for any conditional risk in S KS will be the cold uppers which will enhance parcel lift.I will be interested to see if anything noteworthy develops.

The surface low in SE CO continues to deepen - this may change boundaries a bit and possibly enhance things in E NM in next few hours.

Thanks Paul. Yep it looks like another evening of supercells rolling down off the slopes of far NE NM or SE CO.

For some reason I can't see those images this morning but I'll fix it. Bet you're glad you committed West and not East in the end.

Ok - cell near Plainview has fired and looks impressive already. Time to shift east?

Tricky decision Paul. Go West and take a look at the lone cell now approaching Fort Sumner, or go East and see what triggers in the Caprock?

England friendly in Miami suspended due to lightning with the score 0 - 0 first half. Meanwhile I like the look of the cell moving south of Santa Rosa just now - heading your way.

Boundary lies Childress/Plainview/Clovis at present but I don't think it will recede further with a kink in NM halting progress.Main focus for storms on or just south of this boundary.

The focus for lower upslope activity moves south into the TX Panhandle this evening.Very nice chase terrain and photogenic storms moving in from NM. Lovely. I might start in Clovis, NM and see how things develop. EHIs high at 7+ and decent 68-70F dps as storms move ESE off higher terrain towards the I27.

Thanks Ian. You are nicely set for this evening's risk which is focussed further south in the TX Panhandle today.

Dropping down from my virtual location of Hugoton to the cell now in the OK Panhandle. SRH zone awaits!Team doing the same by the looks of things.

Multiple tornado warnings in quick succession, including the cell near Trinidad CO. Should only improve in structure as it moves east.

Looks like the post MCS environment has recovered yielding 2000+ CAPE by 18Z.I am sticking to my earlier target. With a better chance of cells getting into the richer moisture in far SE KS and the OK Panhandle I would think more robust mesocyclones are likely this evening.

I have included TX in this discussion as the focus IMO heads a bit south from the C CO region this evening.I've gone right off RAP ppn composite as it has failed on a few occasions lately but it's probably about right with the development of supercells in the 'low' upslope region of far SW CO into the OK Panhandle from 19Z. Moisture, instability no problem and EHIs into N OK are very nice along the nose of the surface trough. The target area is quite broad but I might start at the location of my first ever plains chase day - Richfield, KS - and see what happens.

Yes the cell you were on had a really nice structure but being a right-deviant didn't quite get into the better moisture towards the KS border.Better chances this evening in what looks like a nicer set-up in the same area.

StormScapeLive on tvn are streaming ok and are about a mile behind the NetwX team.

The cell WNW of Limon has developed some low-level rotation in the last half hour and has a deep hail core with it.I assume the team is on this one.

Well done chaps. The upslope fired whilst I was virtually sitting in SE KS looking at sunshine and munching burgers.

I assume from your GPS tracker you are going for upslope in E CO. I still think a cell or two will fire in SW or SC KS as CIN erodes in an hour or so - if it can stay on the boundary currently draped across S KS then it could produce.

You could be right Roger. The greatest (and probably only) limiting factor to initiation in SW KS is cap, which may be a lid too far here but we'll see.

Glad you made the most of it all and indeed the dustnados / dusty-gust fronts or whatever they were looked impressive. The general concensus is a bit of a bust with reference tornados but there'll always be something to take from the day.

UPDATE: Slight change of plan. RAP 11Z has decreased inhibition just on and north of the boundary across SW KS and indeed latest SPC has upped tornado risk to 5% here - in response maybe to reduced CIN and increased LLJ from 21Z. 850mb winds no great shakes at about 30kns but these are over surface winds from the East so directional shear very high. EHI values around 5+. I'm now back to my earlier thoughts of Meade/Liberal, KS PS: Half an eye on potential for N C OK on Friday 6th June.All the ingredients are there - but we've said this before!