nsrobins

RAP 15Z and a change of tack I think. The potential continues to extend SW from the Nebraska border and targets in KS are now in play although activity will be increasingly high-based the further down you go - at least at first.Maybe somewhere on the I70 around Russell, KS might be a more affordable target than up into NE though I still think the greatest tornadic potential exists around my original target.

Took the liberty of starting discussion here for the first full chase day of Tour 1 - hope that's OK. 10Z RAP and the driving surface features (WF.trough) look a tad further West to me. Both CAPE and SRH appear focussed just beneath the WF in CS NE. Cap drops away by 20Z. Interaction with OFBs from morning activity moving off east will be crucial but given the DL bulge and afternoon heating I'm going for initiation just over the KS/NE line around Fairbury, NE on the I136 between 20Z and 21Z. Discrete cells moving NE at about 25kts should encounter richer soup around Beatrice to Lincoln and a few hours of tornadic potential seems likely. You could wait further south into KS but the cap may take longer to erode here.Good luck. PS: 200 mile trip to get close to position. Rise and shine!

Yep handily placed for a shift N and E for Sundays MDT risk.Will post a few thoughts later.

But note TVN does not automatically update radar overlay anymore - at least not for me.GR3 and tvn a decent combination.

Surface obs puts the WF along the Iowa/MN line, with decent moisture just to the south of it.If cells can meander into the core of the moisture, with overriding increasing LLJ, then a few tornados are likely.Spencer, Iowa for me.

I might be looking at bit further North for cells around Soiux City. EHI and moisture seem sufficient just across the border in SW MN to cause some interest.

Bingo - great structure Decent chance up near the WF in MN tonight ?too far lol All the best for a great season and I'll contribute at times

What's the title I wonder - 'Tornado Chasing - The Extreme Chase-off', in which a dozen inexperienced people compete to get the most outrageous footage ever without actually killing themselves.

Tues night a virtual bust as suspected with the coastal MCS sucking the life out of the atmosphere A quiet spell now until the pattern begins to reassert itself mid-week 7th May onwards with severe weather again increasing in the mid-west.

Not so sure about tonight's risk with 17Z RAP not really getting the instability back into C MS/AL in time for the LLJ.Some tornados about yes but I don't entirely concur with SPC tornado watch just issued but 1) I'm an amateur and 2) I have been wrong on several occasions LOL. Edit: Note to myself - look at OBS before posting. The skies have actually cleared nicely across a large portion of MS and into AL so I guess the modelled CAPE may be underplayed with 2mTs of 25 and dps approaching 20 in the clear slot. May be lively after all and initiation imminent looking at visible. Edit2: Hodo for Meridian, MS shows a very sharp directional turn between surface and 900mb which is interesting. Deep layer SRH may not be that high but pure directional shear lower down could compensate. This Dixie/jungle stuff is a nightmare to be honest for chasers and residents alike so let's move on to May and get those lovely tubes out in open country. Note: Agree entirely with Paul regarding chaser etiquette. Chuck Doswell's talk at ChaserCon 2014 is well worth a watch (available on YT)

The second back chain on the LA/MS line is probably the one to watch kinematically as the line enters a very unstable environment in the next hour.

SPC now up to HIGH risk (30%) for mid-MS in next few hours.

http://www.wapt.com/weather/live-severe-weather-threat/25698758

Five cells currently tor warned in MS - the cell near Yazoo City sporting a pretty decent couplet. Here we go again.

www.tvnweather.com but the radar is not upating

5newsonline SW AR now switched to live weather stream:http://5newsonline.com/on-air/live-streaming/ Little Rock metro region under the gun?

Bang. First sig cell near Paris, TX off the DLResidual OFB across SW AR will be the catalyst for uptick in deep rotation as this and others further south move NE PDS issued: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0100.html

SPC now HIGH risk in previously identified region for initiation next hour.Latest obs suggest my decision to move back towards the I30 appears correct but the terrain is a huge concern for folks in SW AR in the next four hours.

Evening Sam.Yep might be better off not venturing into the trees like some mad people would be inclined to do :winky: I'm about to move from El Dorado AR but am waiting for the latest RAP and visible before deciding.

Latest visible shows a lot of gunk around still. RAP 16Z has got me thinking about heading east not northeast - coupled with visible I think clearing skies and buoyancy will likely be generated around El Dorado, AR even though the better helicity is further NE. Update - latest MD suggests as above but puts greatest risk of long-tracked tornados Central AR.El Dorado by 19Z and then maybe a move North depending on convective initiation as cap erodes from the south.

Well what a dilemma. Based on the 12Z RAP soundings for 22Z tonight I might be seriously considering downing my morning coffee and getting on the I30 heading NE.The really impressive directional shear profiles resulting in looped hodographs (18kt SE surface wind and a raging 55-60kt SW flow at 750mb) is now up towards Jonesboro AR and up across the MO border. But will the current convection clear to allow recovery? RAP composite ppn doesn't think so.I'm not saying there isn't enough in and around Hope to Little Rock but it's always about the trees down there. So, where to go? I try to take it seriously and pretend to actually be on the road, so I'm just staying put in Texarkana for half an hour and will leave 4hrs to get 180miles across AR if I have to. Incidentally, it's borderline a HIGH risk event later and SPC may go purple on next update.

00Z Sat NAM if anything reinforced my view that Sunday evening could be a significant night for the Arklatex corner.My focus is on the directional shear values with H7 at nearly 60kts from the SW over a SSE surface flow.A sounding for Magnolia, AR has the sort of sigma-shape looped hodograph that makes you take notice. I would start the day in Texarkana ready for a move east or northeast.Edit: Strong words from the SPC this morning: PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

For info, a decent summary of storm parameters used by SPC and chasers here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/begin.html Sunday RiskNAM 12Z more aggressive than GFS and I'm thinking a few significant supercells may form in the region Texarkana/Hope AR late evening as the LLJ cranks SRH to 400+This area and south of the I30 isn't too bad terrain wise, so long as storm motion doesn't take you into the trees you might be OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Sunday MOD risk just about exactly where you don't want to be topography wise.

Saturdays risk dependant on the phasing of the speed max and DL with attendant richer moisture transport. As things stand the transition from high base to surface based cells may not occur until after dark so not conducive for chasing perhaps but dangerous nethertheless. Sunday's risk just in the 00Z NAM range and potential exists further east on the OK/AR line.