nsrobins

Missed last night as no internet at home - finally got through to the Mumbai call centre after holding for 25 minutes to be told there are 19 engineers working on a fault in our postcode area - estimated repair time 60 hours LOL. Time to start a new book. An increased risk IMO for this afternoon in an area not far from where you were yesterday.

This article was written before news of Tim Samaras, his son and Carl Young filtered through. Although is contains some opinions I am not in agreement with, it also has many links to doppler grabs, Storm chaser locations, media footage, etc that you may see individually dotted about but not in one place. Spoiler alert: Read the comments with an open mind http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/06/01/the-night-that-should-change-tornado-actions-and-storm-chasing-forever/

Thanks Tom. Hope you are all in reasonable spirits after the weekend's events. A quick shuffle through models and obs would take me North to Guymon/Boise, OK for some high-based structure. Moisture is OKish. This would put you in position (SC KS) for Tues.

Thanks Coast. I have always understood the NWS advice is to stay at home and shelter as the article states, because of exactly what happened on Friday with numerous people trying to flee the area in a short space of time and jamming the roads.If there's one thing that should be investigated about this event, it's the instruction from local media to evacuate the El Reno area. I'm sure this did not come from the NWS and it's only a by chance that the tornado didn't develop like it could have done. The casualty numbers may have been horrific if it had.

Following the dramatic and tragic events of Friday, May 31st, 2013 when a violent tornado developed and moved erratically across portions of C OK, I thought it might be worth discussing this in more detail as the nature and motion of the core circulation, coupled with the horrendous traffic chaos caused by rather precipitous broadcasts from local media advising people to evacuate the area and head south, led to several direct encounters and as we know the tragic loss of three respected members of the storm research community. The following graphic is a provisional tornado track map, clearly showing the sharp turn north of the first vortex as it crossed the I81 4 miles south of El Reno: The gridded road network on and east of the I81 at this point was clogged with a mix of terrified members of the public attempting to evacuate the area and several dozen storm chasing vehicles, many of whom were caught out by unusual nature of the multi-vortex tornado and the deviant sharp left turn as it crossed the highway. I, and others I'm sure, would like to know more about why the storm behaved in this way, and perhaps learn for the future. Despite the awful events of Friday, there is no doubt that had the tornado continued to develop into a long-lived violent wedge east of El Reno, the casualty numbers would of certainly been much higher as the I40 and surrouding roads were gridlocked.

Meagre offerings this evening as the moisture hasn't recovered enough yet - dps only in the mid-forties across N TX.Better chances of developments in N OK and KS Mon night as you say Tom with high bases and hail the main threats.

Tim and his team should not be confused with the Yahoos. The debate about the increasing recklessness of chasers has been coming for a while, but this tragic incident should not be perceived as one involving weather tourists or those who choose to take a risk too far for that ultimate video of photo. Yes they were undoubtedly in the field on Friday evening, and were as caught out as all of us by the deviant jog North of the main core, but Tim and his team were not risk takers.

Tim was a leading figure in tornado research, his work being featured in many publications and on the Discovery Channel. I remember several instances when Tim and his team stopped to help victims of tornados in the field. My thoughts go to Tim's family, friends and the many storm chasers who had the pleasure of meeting him. RIP.

The 'awareness' of chasers has been raised a notch or two by Friday nights events and generally not in a good way unfortunately. Although I don't expect much to happen anytime soon, it won't be long before terms like 'regulation' and 'guidelines' start being bandied about.

A more relaxed or down day today after the events of yesterday. Conditional risk of structure and hail with a 2% tornado risk exists in the Arkalatex region. OFB induced cells are likely in the Mount Pleasant - Texarkana region just south of the Red River so a trip may be worth it. It may not be worth creeping into Arkansas for this one. Personally I'd only venture into the moonshine stills and log cabins for a moderate risk. LOL.

When all is said and done, and not withstanding the tragic loss of life from this storm, I believe Oklahoma City has once again dodged the bullet. From what I was seeing last night the majority of the damage being done from the I40 through to Norman was from either 70mph+ range inflow or 90mph+ RFD straight line winds, and perhaps some rotational vectors as the organised mesos touched the surface. Enough to turn vehicles and down power lines, but not tornadic per say. The fact that there were so many areas of rotation probably saved the city from catastrophic damage in that one meso didn't become dominant over the others for long enough to tighten up into a significant vortex. Just as well - some of the mid-level couplets were high end - and if one tornado had dominated, the results don't bear thinking about. So, when all else looks equal, why does one supercell drop a long-tracked EF5, and another spawn multiple EF1/2 tornados? Just one of the many mysteries that have yet to be defined, but one that IMO saved the urban areas of OKC from an historic night.

A total mess to be honest. Multiple re-cycling circulations, 100mph+ RFDs, very complex cell tracking ESE into more favourable parameters. Hard to tell if power flashes are directly tornadic or inflow or RFD. Great to hear you're OK Tom. Maybe time to bug out south for a while then assess I40 area for assistance as multiple reports of damage along that corridor.

When was the last news from the team?

Tornado Emergency for south OKC. Pretty much the worst case scenario being played out as we watch. Vectors 105 in/110 out. Very nasty indeed.

You do not want to be stuck in traffic around Reno ATM. Renewed circulation incoming.

Hinton storm gate to gate mid-levels and a right turner. This really needs watching with respect OKC.

More cells will fire south along the DL - these are the big threat for OKC

These cells are firing with rotation inherent. Several already indicating low level rotation. This is a big event evolving here chaps.

Cap breach imminent. Popcorn turkeys going up between Chickasha and El Reno.

Sam the 18Z RAP brings deep layer SRH of in excess of 600 into N C OK at 01Z. You really don't see values like that juxtaposed with such immense instability very often. Hesitant to mention it but it looks very similar to April 2011 Alabama to me.

Looking at latest obs and DL mixing I think a shift west for initiation is in order - Fort Cobb State Park up to El Reno by 20.30Z maybe. Max shear also adjusted a bit west but LLJ still projected to move in with upper jet entrance flow across N OK later. Ingredients in pace.

Thanks for the updates Tom. I repeat my advice, which I'm sure you are completely aware of, that the centre of the metro will be no place to be in a few hours. Sit just east or northeast - the cells will come to you in a more open environment with roads out of trouble.

Not surprising. A potential PDS on this - looking significant as current obs and high-res models stand.

High risk possible now for tornados too Stu as someone said earlier. Rapidly changing situation with latest guidance briging stroger LLJ over the top by 22Z. Note: Stout cap fails at 20Z ish. Big loaded gun scenario off the dryline.. Latest SPC: IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO. Watch the skies chaps (and model data, etc, of course!)

There's contradictory opinions out there. The PWO is warranted and clearly indicates that although the potential is high, the risk of significant tornados is conditional. On the other hand the language on Stormtrack is bullish. The major event of last Monday was actually an isolated severe, long-track event in an otherwise 'standard' spread on the day. The same thing could happen again tonight. An isolated EF4+ out in open countryside won't make headlines. An EF4+ in the 'wrong' place (OKC or Tulsa metro for instance) is a completely different story. That's the principle that underpins the EF rating system, and makes forecasting these situations all the more difficult!