nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Neil - seen the couplet on the NE KS cell - a large tornado on the ground with that one nr Corning. And not a chaser in sight!
Indeed. I think we'd of been on it but the virtual world lends itself to hindsight LOL.
The team have an opportunity where they are ATM.
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Just got in. The cell you are on has a very decent signature. Perhaps south on the 183 to get a better view.
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The clearance should continue to nose into C KS and then C N & NE KS coincident with the current and modelled DL bulge beneath the surface low over W KS now.
I see the potential for cells in S C KS agreed but for maximised shear I'd still be snoozing in Salina ready for the off. -
Interesting how each subsequent run has increased the risk in NC and NE KS this afternoon.
We have stupid EHI and SRHs are up to 350 in the Salina/Concordia/Junction City an dpoints east zone.
Taking a punt of a slight westward adjustment and the nose of the DL bulge, overlayed by a decent 700mb SW flow, I'm going west of Chiono's target and will be having a lazy lunch in Salina, KS. -
Tour 4 probably hitting the ground running again to get up to NE/E KS probably.
Although the general pattern then settles down a bit for three days or so, with a ridge exending across the high Plains from the NE, there will almost certainly be storms around and if there are any Mr Sherman will find them.
From Tues/Weds next week I'm thinking another round of W Trough/Gulf moisture feed will develop and the early June CO upslope will really come into play. -
A wide-scale slight risk today from a number of areas of potential severe weather. The two areas of interest for the NW team are the OFB play in E KS and the DL in far W KS/CO line.
Personally I like the E KS area for much better shear, and the 07Z RAP pushes a pronounced DL bulge well into the heart of KS by 21Z which may assist initiation.
I assume you might have to consider team changeovers but Weds may be a biggish day too.
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Thanks team. From a virtual perspective I think the day failed to live up to the parameters, and not for the first time this season. The main line initiated in SC NB at a point further west than anticipated, and then dropping ESE into NC KS it adopted a bit of a messy line that became increasingly HP. The main cell continued to be dominant but probably failed to ingest the juice required to drop a visible tornado because by that time cells to the south were developing and occluding the main core.
Matt Grantham's stream made for compelling viewing for a time when he was caught right in the core of the RFD that almost turned his vehicle.It would be good to have your stream on all the time but for me at least it has been at best intermitant.
Keep up the good work!
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The dominant cell should react to enhanced helicity now - tornado imminent I think.
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Some more signs that initiation occuring around Arapahoe, NB as spotted by Chiono.
Also note obs show the increase in ESE flow across target area in last hour. This will enhance already looped hodos I would think.
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MD issued for
AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KS
Cap remains strong so as Chiono has said initiation still a few hours away.
OK, but having issued that and what I posted a few minutes ago if you look at 17Z HRRR composite it still wants to break the cap and build cells NC and C KS at 21Z. It's possible - the instability is very impressive and the loaded gun scenario may be a gamble worth taking.
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When the cap busts?
18Z RAP has the cap holding until 21Z in NC KS now. Big decision to make in the next 15 mins IMO. Stay where you are (drift south a bit maybe) for an explosive initiation in a couple of hours, or go West for initiation earlier but maybe less of a tor risk here.
Not checked SPC but I suspect some sort of MD/tornado watch will be needed for NW KS in the nexrt half hour then for NC KS from 21Z. -
Yep HRRR composite puts two large discrete cells between Concordia and Belleville KS at 21Z. Given the helicity and lapse rates I reckon there's a high chance of these cells going ballistic and tornadic in quick time.
HRRR has performed well with ppn initiation in the last week or so. -
LOL - it's the scorpion that's causing the problems for later. I am expecting a lively evening for far NC KS. The above MCS will throw an OFB westwards into the WF regime with some really decent CAPE and SRHs of 350+ focussed on the area by 21Z Initiation shgould occur by 21.30Z in a line Lebanon KS to Red Cloud NE, with an adjustment east possible nearer the time depending on teh Cu field response to the forcing from the OFB.
Hodos look conducive for rotating supercells (turn in lowest 1km) and LCLs suit low bases. First major tor oppotunities IMO since last Monday.
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I suspected an upgrade earlier this morning. Not withstanding the excellent looking flow parameters, it's late may in N Kansas. Go figure!
I'm going to take a closer look at 17Z once the inlaws have been BBQ'd and watered.
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Paul I just posted the exact same thing on the Sunday thread. No need to repeat it LOL - a quick coffee and croissant glance at the RAP and I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to MODERATE for an area of NC KS for this one.
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That's a decent result from a late initiation. The cross-shear in the C NE region was being modelled to provide some excellent structure and possibly a tornado, and that cell on the I183 that made you all jump looked brilliant.
Several more days of a broad risk but I'm looking at a potential upgrade to MODERATE risk this evening for SC NE and NC KS and a high slight risk also in C/E KS on Weds perhaps.
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The only thing preventing cells developing along the receding WF across C NE at the moment must be the thin mid/upper-level clouds just keeping the CIN the wrong side of zero - as it should have dissolved by now really.
I see from vis sat that there is a cu field along the I83 so it may happen in the next half hour.
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Heading towards Thedford, NE now. The scene of my first supercell 5 years ago!
Probably not far off there, Arron. I might be 30 miles further east with the nose of richer moisture now pushing in from the SE but it's splitting hairs. If a decent cell can get going there's actually quite a shimmy in C NE as the 850mb flow strengthens from 22Z.
Good luck and hope you get some structure.
Sam - you and your barbeques LOL.
Edit - just checked obs. 68F dps now into target area. No wonder there's upwards of 4000 CAPE available,
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Matt Grantham has a decent base on the storm up near Spearfish, SD.
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Afternoon team. I quite like the area around Chadron, NE up near the SD border. On the NE flank of the Denver cyclone, close to 60F dps have already got into the area and SRH looks sufficient. A suspect a line of cells will develop by 21Z from NW SD to NW NE and the southern end of this line could provide some fun.
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Currently experiencing severe drizzle!
You watch that windscreen.
Nothing really holding together - moisture just below threshold for severe and low bases IMO.
Have a good evening chaps.
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The cell West of Imperial, NE is developing a pretty decent mid-level circulation by the looks of things. Looks like a 'mini-mothership' on Jeff Stoeckleins stream.The ones just North and South of that aren't too shabby either.
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The higher dps are pushing North along and east of the 'warm' frontal/DL boundary that currently lies just in the CO side of the CO/KS line. I see the Denver Cyclone has set up and this will assist this process, pushing the higher dp air upslope and into the boundary which is probably underway looking at the developing Cu field.
I still feel the corner region into the far SW of NE will be a decent place into the 22Z-23Z period but we'll see. -
Evening/afternoon. Just had a heavy shower of rain and hail pass over here. Strong and gusty NE wind. Temp 7.6C. Just thought you'd like to know!
Charles Edwards and others are parked at Loves Fuel stop in E Olive St, Lamar. The object dangling above the door is flapping around like mad and from that I deduce there is a strong S breeze blowing there
Chase Day 20 - Discussion Slight risk CO,NB,KS,OK + many others
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
Large TN on the ground north of Salina