nsrobins
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Posts posted by nsrobins
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Really hard to keep up with all these cells. Which cell will Paul take?
Take your pick. Personally I'd stay out of the Metro and target the southern cells.
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This is going to be a very dangerous evening guys. Cells are organising very quickly indeed.
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Cell Bridge Creek tightening rapidly
Tor Warning about to be issued for Newcastle/Moore
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And we're off! Stream is up and running and trying a new combination so hopefully it'll hold up
These storms have a few hours to mature before the shear reaches decent tornadic levels - and when it does it could be very fruity with the 22Z sounding for OKC for instance showing a classic figure of eight clockwise looped hodo that should do very nicely.
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Well done HRRR, although this is an early kick-off. First cell off the DL just east of Lawton. Aggitated Cu field extends NEwards up to OKC.
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Current obs: Duke 81/46 NW 7kts; Altus 85/69 SW 8kts; Lawton 81/72 SSW 7kts; Ardmore 81/68 S 12kts. Diffuse DL into far W OK now and forecast to sharpen around Lawton by 21Z.
14Z High res rapid breaks ppn out by 20Z in a line Stillwater/OKC/Lawton. Not a huge fan of it but it's done OK lately. May be another sign that we're edging a tad further West to start the play.
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I'm wondering if the ppn models have missed a trick here and have gone too early and too far east.Not for the first time this season I'm scatching my head and thinking about going west of the I35 almost toward the I44 around Chickasha, OK for initiation off the DL where inhibition fades at 21Z and still within the juicy stuff.I know I can't be in two places at once so perhaps Norman on the I35 would be a compromise.
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Agreed it was up there with the busiest of virtual chases of the last few years (the gold standard of course being that incredible evening of 27th April, 2011). Having been online the night of the Greensburg EF5 in 2007 and knowing what a tornado emergency could entail, it was shocking to hear a tornado emergency being declared on the Wichita storm last night, only thankfully for the meso to lift and recycle right over downtown, sparing it from a potential mauling.
It really is only a matter of time before an EF4/5 impacts the heart of one of the region's major metro areas - Tulsa, OKC, Wichita, DFW - but at least the dedication of the spotters and chaser community will hopefully continue to give people sufficient warning. -
Hope moderators don't mind me starting this:Another batch of severe wx developing this evening, especially E and NE OK into NW MO and SW IL. My faith in RAP has taken a hit after being too far west with last night's initiation so NAM mainly used to pinpoint McAlester, OK for a target from 20Z.SRH focii of >250 illustrate the substantial shear with height in place by 22Z with a decent LLJ pushing under 60kt 500mb SWlys. Big CAPE again helps to generate in excess of 700 SRH in above area and into C OK. DL however may not be a big player here as it's back in W OK at 22Z although does bulge across the I35 later. It's OFBs and maybe the infamous gravity wave that will lead the initiation IMO.Depsite the strong 500mb flow, storm motions look to be playing ball again with a NE motion at 20mph.
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Amazing stuff last night - you must be worn out - but sad to hear of the damage and injuries - inevitable given the severity of the circulation at times.
Interesting to see where the initiation line turned out to be - about 50 miles west of my target so I now have a pair being 50 miles east the other day LOL. Both understable in retrospect but no model, except maybe GFS, has performed brilliantly with these events.
I have to say the Channel9 helicopter coverage is a very useful addition to teh chasers armoury as you get a completely different perspective from 2000ft.
Onward and upward and more to come this evening.
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L Thunderbird cell now SE of Shawnee mile wide meso with low intense central tube - multivortex.
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Newcastle cell very close. RAP update suggests conditions increase for mesos towards 01Z,
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+85/-80 gate to gate on the Carney storm. Nasty beast.
Southern cell /Newcastle/ tightening up on velocities. Tor warned imminent would think.
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The reportsers in the cars are giving out so much false information "It is EF4 or EF5" - really!
Of course rating can not be given until damage assessment.
Wellston = circulation has exploded into a large multi-vortex wedge.
tendrils on this thing - very Tuscaloosa like.
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Tom - News 9 said cell is organising South of OK city
Edmond cell entering region more conducive for sustaining circulation.
New cell NE of Chikashaw organising rapidly.
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Yep tor OTG Edmond doing damage
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Ye - Wichita maybe escaped a hit but the cell has life left in it.
N OKC cell recycling IMO - watch it closely. -
Potentially large rain-wrapped tornado impacting downtown Wichita now. Nightmare scenario to be honest.
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That cell SW Wichita is a dangerous beast - potential for a large tor to impact S Wichita in next half hour.
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iowa warned storm as well - only one chaser near (jeremy hartog0, could be a very long squall line if the storms kick off on the entire length.
Last night was spectacular once it finally kicked in, I am confidently hoping for an earler sleep tonight!!
I wouldn't bank on it - LLJ will keep this going until 2am at least.
Update: Tornado OTG SW of Wichita
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On the move again, issues with power and I'm ready to smash everything to pieces
(or I'm just tired) GPS should update but I doubt we'll be streaming as I'm all out of ports on the laptop. Will try and figure something out if I can. About 80 miles south of OKC and surging north. Dryline appears to be bubbling llovely and I think we're going to play for a cell this way Don't worry Arron. We have you on GPS as you know. Streaming is a bonus but if it isn't going to happen just drop in regularly to let us know where and how you are,
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Bang. First sig cell in watch area - Anthony Co, KS already has a decent wall cloud.
Good old propagating gravity waves.
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Ok I'll head to car rentals.
Perhaps putting GPS tags on each tour member might be useful?
Hope you find your rendezvous and get on the road. As they sid on Top Gun, 'Get in there, Mav'.
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Hands-up who can't keep up with it all LOL?
DL action rising in influence in last half hour - those pesky propagating gravity waves!
Perhaps the team won't have that far to go after all.
(or I'm just tired) GPS should update but I doubt we'll be streaming as I'm all out of ports on the laptop. Will try and figure something out if I can. About 80 miles south of OKC and surging north. Dryline appears to be bubbling llovely and I think we're going to play for a cell this way 
Chase Day 12 Discussion - Moderate Risk (OK/KS/MO/IL)
in Storm Chase USA
Posted
recycling - due East.