Lt. Dan
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Posts posted by Lt. Dan
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East_England_Stormchaser91 That was a nice shelf
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A Face like Thunder Maybe, just maybe...
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High resolution (3km) GFS-WRF model run has the following for tomorrow afternoon, low deepens to 967mb as it moves Eastwards
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15 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
I remember first coming across the modellzentrale site probably nearly 2 years ago now.
A huge array of parameters from one of the WRF ARW models, half of which I have little clue on what they mean. I do agree that more CAMs would be appreciated for this part of the world though.
It's a useful site, but should probably be noted it runs a very old version of the WRF with some basic physics.
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21 minutes ago, Supacell said:
The latest Arome before I left for Yorkshire showed it too, however I dismissed it as it was totally different from its previous run which targeted Yorkshire. Honestly, it seems every risk day has huge model uncertainty. Even more so over recent years. Or it could be that we have so much data available to us these days and its hard to guess which model has it right.
I'd say we don't have enough data. Look at some of the convection allowing ensemble suites that are available for North America. We have a handful of deterministic CAMs to take a look at but they are limited in true value, I think. Especially for those that like to chase on a day like yesterday. I think there are also some misconceptions on how these models work, how many people realise that the WRF is not just one model? There are many flavours out there and most of them are initiated from the GFS, Netweather's NMM for example, Manunicast's WRF (very rarely gets mentioned here) or the WRF at modelzentrale.de, all with different physics. I'd love to have more data, but then I'm a storm/model junkie
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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Yeah I absolutely nailed it too. Literally my best forecast ever. Saved hundreds of lives, probably.
The Ilford tornado I’m predicting for 9pm might be threat to life as well - best for anyone in the area to find a 24 hour shoe shop to shelter in. Failing that just stay in and don’t wander about for no reason.
Dominating.
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5 hours ago, DanN said:
Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch.
6z WRF now produces what looks like a reasonably long lived storm, moving ~ENE from the area of surface convergence, perhaps some organisation to it as well. We shall see
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Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch.
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6z initialised GFS-WRF only skirting with the instability on the South coast tomorrow morning. Doesn't really make a a great deal of any convection later in the day either. Some decent looking cloud tops in that run though. Will be interesting to see what the next few runs produce.
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7 minutes ago, Jamie M said:
Pretty big waterspout at Dungeness
Oh that was a good capture!
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High shear, low cape environments. There are quite a few interesting papers out there (via Google) on this.
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13 minutes ago, Quinach said:
NE Scotland 2am today...
Nice!
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My motivation is starting to wane too, especially for faint 3am horizon huggers. I’m sure there will be an immense late season display now my attention is drifting elsewhere
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Well this is putting me off venturing out tonight…maybe it’ll clear up later.
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Like others have mentioned, humidity plays a big part for how uncomfortable I find it. I'm pretty much ready to tap out at 28c though. I have a rather limited tolerance to heat and clear blue skies
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There were a few reports on the Glendale app, Newcastle...Belfast...so they were out there, but I saw nothing this far South.
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:
really?.... that surprises me..
Yea, nothing over this way at all.
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Nothing between 2-3am either.
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A strip of cloud in an otherwise clear sky….you can guess in which direction
needs to get a shift on and move.
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Just now, Southern Storm said:
Just scanning through the European webcams. Can't tell these are cirrus clouds or not
Was just about to say the same.
Meerkat pose at the window has been adopted.
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Cloudy here. And I have to be up early
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29 minutes ago, Windblade said:
Well it's got heavier. No idea where this has come from and it's in no way convective but I'll take it as I still love rain (and absolutely adore that smell)...
Petrichor
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKPetrichor is the smell of rain. The word comes from the Greek words 'petra', meaning stone, and 'ichor', which in Greek mythology refers to the golden fluid that...-
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Noctilucent Cloud Season 2024
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Been waiting for this thread to reappear. I hope we have a better season than last year, as that was quite disappointing overall. I am quite looking forward to those 3am mornings with a glorious overhead display