Lt. Dan
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Posts posted by Lt. Dan
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6z initialised GFS-WRF only skirting with the instability on the South coast tomorrow morning. Doesn't really make a a great deal of any convection later in the day either. Some decent looking cloud tops in that run though. Will be interesting to see what the next few runs produce.
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7 minutes ago, Jamie M said:
Pretty big waterspout at Dungeness
Oh that was a good capture!
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High shear, low cape environments. There are quite a few interesting papers out there (via Google) on this.
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13 minutes ago, Quinach said:
NE Scotland 2am today...
Nice!
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My motivation is starting to wane too, especially for faint 3am horizon huggers. I’m sure there will be an immense late season display now my attention is drifting elsewhere
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Well this is putting me off venturing out tonight…maybe it’ll clear up later.
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Like others have mentioned, humidity plays a big part for how uncomfortable I find it. I'm pretty much ready to tap out at 28c though. I have a rather limited tolerance to heat and clear blue skies
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There were a few reports on the Glendale app, Newcastle...Belfast...so they were out there, but I saw nothing this far South.
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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:
really?.... that surprises me..
Yea, nothing over this way at all.
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Nothing between 2-3am either.
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A strip of cloud in an otherwise clear sky….you can guess in which direction
needs to get a shift on and move.
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Just now, Southern Storm said:
Just scanning through the European webcams. Can't tell these are cirrus clouds or not
Was just about to say the same.
Meerkat pose at the window has been adopted.
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Cloudy here. And I have to be up early
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29 minutes ago, Windblade said:
Well it's got heavier. No idea where this has come from and it's in no way convective but I'll take it as I still love rain (and absolutely adore that smell)...
Petrichor
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKPetrichor is the smell of rain. The word comes from the Greek words 'petra', meaning stone, and 'ichor', which in Greek mythology refers to the golden fluid that...-
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25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
June 22 ..... i was going to bed, and looked out my window, there they were, i knew straight away what they were. Because of being on a southerly slope and with houses and trees to my North, i cant even see Capella, and most displays are below Capella. There was one band right over to my West too, didnt think they could be NLCs but they were..
Yes, just checked my Lightroom catalog and that was a good night. I think the night I remember was 23rd June 2021, that was a high display and was probably the best in the last few years for me.
11 minutes ago, reef said:Who'd be a weather enthusiast?
Actually the most ridiculous hobby I could have bought into
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11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:
I was away last year the first week in July, i didnt see any after i got back on the 8th. But i did get 1 decent display (evening) in June and several weak ones.
Not had a very "high" display since 2020...2020 maybe the year I am remembering.
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I've found it about the same as last year, and both years can be summed up as lame. A few years ago we had some excellent displays, one of which I distinctly remember at about 10:30pm, huge overhead display, which my wife doesn't forget either because I hung up the phone to her as it was happening (gotta go!)
I'll prob be on the hunt for another week or so, depending on cloud cover of course.
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Perhaps not new to most of us in here…
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06z WRF still suggestive of an environment that could support a decent storm later this afternoon, perhaps more so towards Essex, and Suffolk into Norfolk.
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Some nice images were appearing on the Glendale App which kept me going until about 3am. Ultimately it wasn't worth the five hour shift for what did show up; way too faint for my high expectations
Just hope that wasn't the final display for the year.
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When your 00z WRF produces an updraft helicity track over the top of your house
I remain unconvinced until I see it with my own eyes.
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Very very faint. Not too sure they are going to get much brighter.
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10 minutes ago, Sprites said:
NLCs now in the NNE upto 10 degrees.
Yep showing on camera now. Man that was a shift waiting for them tonight!
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Looks decent on the Flensburg webcam as well. Typical. Think I will hang around for a bit longer.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch.