Leicestershire forecast - Sat 27th April, will it rain? Help please!

[alexjclark]

Hey folks,

Looking for some help from some weather experts please! I'm a motorbiker and have a track day coming up next Saturday 27th at Mallory Park in Kirkby Mallory (Leics). I've been following the long range forecast from Netweather, Met office, BBC etc. on a daily basis to try and figure out what the weather will do.

Equally trying to understand the models and predictions myself (as a fair weather biker I hate rain!). 

As I understand it we have low pressure coming in from mid-end of the week, is that right?

Current forecast seems to suggest showers, netweather is now showing dry!? Although in my experience I find NW to often be wrong sadly, I also read something about a big band of rain coming over but that it may not hit until Saturday late PM, is that right?

I'm really hoping it's just showers and not persistant rain for the midlands.

Any ideas please?

Thank you!

[ANYWEATHER]

 alexjclark it looks at the moment a very sketchy forecast ,because models have not got a handling on the develop of low pressure, IE, exact position and how deep the low pressure will be! Looks to be showery rather than frontal rain, but to be honest,  best you can do is keep an eye on the developing situation every day this week ,could well be that we get a lot of dry weather ,rather than a washout, ! ☺ Best of luck. ...! 

[alexjclark]

Thanks @ANYWEATHER appreciate the reply Ok, I'll continue to keep an eye on it daily I can deal with showers! Just don't want the full heavy rain.

Thanks again, I'll keep everything crossed!

[alexjclark]

@ANYWEATHER quick question while I am here, which forecast do you find to be the most reliable out of the myriad of options out there?? Thanks

[ANYWEATHER]

 alexjclark to be honest,  I always look at the synoptic charts like the gfs/ecm , UKV  chart viewer.  I don't use weather apps , because there a waste of time and pay little if any attention to tv forecasts etc. If I would want a precip forecast say for instance for a couple days ahead ,I would use the UKV chart viewer.  It goes to two days ahead,  and the its 03z and 15z runs go to five days  ahead. It's high resolution, but sometimes like all other models ,woefully wrong, but I think it's the best we have got ......!Anyway ,hope that helps ☺

[alexjclark]

@ANYWEATHER ok thank you, I will keep an eye on the charts then. Just out of interest what charts/models do Netweather use? Netweather now predicting sunny intervals in Kirkby Mallory on Saturday and Met office predicting rain!

[matty40s]

 alexjclark

I can say without doubt that the BBC forecast is probably the first one to discount from your watch list, unless you watch the Farmers Forecast