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John L. Daly


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Posted
  • Location: south wales 200m asl
  • Location: south wales 200m asl

Originally from Britain, John moved to Tasmania in 1980, settling near Launceston, and for the last 9 years have been one of the numerous `skeptics' speaking out publicly against the Global Warming scare, which makes exaggerated claims that the earth will warm by +1.5 to +6 deg. C. due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect.

Climate and climate change has been a lifelong study of mine since my early days as a ship's officer in the British Merchant Navy. I have lived through and traced the progress of the `ice age' scare of the 1970's, the `nuclear winter' scare of the 1980s, and now the `global warming' scare of the present. All these scares have advanced the interests of what was a small academic discipline 30 years ago to become a mammoth global industry today. It is my view that this industry has, through the `politics of fear' which it has promoted, acted against the interests of the public.

Origionally from Britain, John moved to Tasmania in 1980, settling near Launceston, and for the last 9 years has been one of the numerous 'skeptics' of the recent Global Warming scare, which makes claims the Earth will warm by +1.5 to +6c due to an enhanced greenhouse affect.

In Johns own words: "Climate and climate change has been a lifelong study of mine since my early days as a ship's officer in the British Merchant Navy. I have lived through and traced the progress of the `ice age' scare of the 1970's, the `nuclear winter' scare of the 1980s, and now the `global warming' scare of the present. All these scares have advanced the interests of what was a small academic discipline 30 years ago to become a mammoth global industry today. It is my view that this industry has, through the `politics of fear' which it has promoted, acted against the interests of the public."

gh-trap.jpg

He is the author of 'The Greenhouse Trap' (Bantam Books 1989)(above) and also of articles and papers in New Zealand Science Monthly, New Woman, Forest Industries Journal , Norwegian Oil Review, papers in "Climate Change" (Univ. of Western Sydney) and for the 1990 ANZAAS Congress. Written and verbal submissions to the Industry Commission and the 1996 National Greenhouse Response Strategy Review.

I give to you, John. L. Daly:

Is the climate in Tasmania similar to that of the UK? Is the landscape atall

similar?

The climate here would be comparable to that of France, in that we have

milder winters and warmer summers. The summers here are also more

reliable as there are consistently more sunshine days than in Britain.

Vineyards and premium wines are now a major industry here, which gives some indication of our climate.

Tasmania has two distinct climate zones, the wet climate of the western,

more mountainous, half of the island (which is exposed to the `Roaring

Forties'), and the drier climate of the eastern half (a rain shadow

effect).

The landscape is a combination of rolling pastoral countryside and

mountainous wilderness in the centre and the the west. Because

Tasmania's population is only 480,000 on an island the size of Ireland

(a population density of only 6 people per sq. km. compared to several

hundred in Britain), large areas of the island have only slight human

impact (roads, towns, infrastructure etc.), while all our electricity

comes from hydro-electric schemes.

What extremes of temperature have you experienced there? Do you dip below freezing at all? or break the magic 100F mark?

Most parts of Tasmania experience winter frosts (my home near Launceston saw -5°C on several mornings this year) and snow falls and settles on ground above the 500 metre level. In summer, we only get really hot temperatures when the wind is northerly, the highest in Launceston being around 32°C and up to 38°C (100°F) in Hobart. Sometimes Hobart has exceeded that but no-one regards it as remarkable as these occasional scorcher days occur most years. When the wind is not northerly, summer daytime temperatures are typically in the mid to high 20s celsius.

As I said above, Ive followed your work for a while, and I know a lot of people who have a great amount of respect you, myself included, but what made you want to challenge the theory of Global Warming?

When it all began in 1988, I was appalled to see scientists lending

their reputations, and the reputation of science itself, to the most

outrageous scare stories. There was loose talk about a Venus-like

`runaway greenhouse' and even kids in schools were being indictrinated

into thinking they had no future. Some of these scientists became media

stars in the process, several of them British.

I believed then that the evidence would have to be very compelling

indeed to justify such alarmist tactics on their part. But the more I

examined that evidence, the less compelling it looked and much of it was

flaw-ridden to such an extent that it could hardly be described as

`science' at all. It was also very disturbing to find that computer

simulations - models - were being used as policy instruments when none

of them were validated. That's still the case today.

So, even though I was a layman, it was not difficult to identify these

flaws and the manifestly political approach many of the scientists were

adopting. The IPCC's `Hockey Stick' is the latest example of what is

very flawed science inspired mostly by political, not scientific,

considerations.

We on net-weather are all extreme weather enthusiasts, but what is your

favourite extreme weather?

Tornadoes are my favourite. This is because you not only see all the

drama of an extreme event, but also see the whole SYSTEM which creates it. In other extreme events, you can only ever see one small part of the whole system. With supercell thunderstorms - and the tornadoes that often accompany them - you see the whole weather system in action.

They also deliver the heaviest rain, the largest hail, and the most

spectacular lightning displays, in addition to the winds and/or

tornadoes. We get some tornadoes in Australia, more than most people

think because many of them go unreported due to the sparseness of the

population.

Do you expect the UK will ever see a winter on a par with the 60's/80's again?

Don't worry. The `good times' will return. Any country sitting in the

fifties latitude cannot avoid at some time in the future catching a cold

period with plenty of snow and ice. Just as meteorology can conspire to

create heat waves like the ones in 1976 and this year, it can also

conspire to deliver a `cold wave' from time to time.

Britain's high population density with attendant urbanisation, road

networks, and industrial activity, has turned the `urban heat island

effect' into something of a region-wide phenomenon, and while this can

and does raise temperatures overall, it could not prevent a `cold

wave'. The most likely time for such a cold period would be about 2

years from now, when the sun goes into its `solar minimum' phase with,

no El Niño activity likely at that time to restrain falling

temperatures.

We have all seen the major heatwave in Europe this summer, do you believe its at all linked to Global Warming?

I lived in Pembrokeshire, Wales, during the last big heat wave in 1976.

That event was more severe than this year's heat wave in that it lasted

much longer and was accompanied by a severe drought which began in

1975. Temperatures in Pembrokeshire went into the mid-30s celsius. The

only special feature of the recent heat wave was the breaking of

temperature records, particularly in the London area (Gravesend and

Heathrow). But the intensity of urbanisation is much greater now than

in 1976 and so breaking temperature records is both possible and

likely. The next heat wave is likely to break similar records, not

because of `global warming' but because a blazing sun beating down on

exposed concrete always raises the temperature above the background

normal. The more extensive the concrete is, the greater the heating.

And finally, do you support the veiw that melting ice sheets will in the

near future redirect the Gulf Stream, bringing another younger dryas event?

For that to occur, it would be necessary for Thermohaline Circulation to

cease in the North Atlantic and Arctic seas. This can happen either

from a freshening of the seas from melting ice, or from a warming of the

ocean surface waters. The former mechanism is unlikely as there is now

now sufficient ice melt in any one year to trigger such an event. Ice

volumes were many times greater during the original Younger Dryas as it

fed on melt-water from the great ice sheets on Europe and North America.

The second possible mechanism, ocean surface warming, is theoretically

possible if there was sufficient `global warming'. But that would lead

to a climatic paradox - a mini (or even a maxi) ice age triggered by

`global warming'. That scenario is promoted by some `scientists' of the

doom and gloom variety, but so far ocean temperature changes have been too tiny to make such a mechanism likely in the foreseeable future.

I think John desevres a round of applause for a fantastic interview, thankyou very much John!

For more info see: http://www.john-daly.com/dalybio.htm

Johns excellent main site: http://www.john-daly.com

And for Johns 'storm chasing' experience, see this link: www.john-daly.com/chasing

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Thank you Duncan and thank you John. Excellent and intriguing interview there 8)

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Posted
  • Location: south wales 200m asl
  • Location: south wales 200m asl

Glad you thought so Thunderfoot! More will follow!

Any suggestions for questions for the next interview, put them in the 'New Forum' thread in the Announcements area for now :D

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Hello Jackone,

You talk about "people both pro and anti GW" -- I have a great difficulty

with this distinction. There is a broad consensus among climate scientists

about the reality of anthropogenic global warming, qualified by openly-stated

estimates of the uncertainties involved in that position (e.g. see Footnote 7

to: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm).

On the other hand, contrarians like John Daly take an uncompromising

(i.e. one which implies a zero uncertainty) minority view, which lies well

away from the "GW consensus". In science, these latter points are called

"outliers", are rejected, and make no difference to the final estimate.

If contrarians like John Daly could open their minds a little, they could

perhaps actually contribute to understanding what is going on, and what will

go on, with the Earth's climate. However, by insisting on being "outliers" they

will continue to be ignored by the majority of people doing the science.

Regards,

John Hunter

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  • 3 months later...
Posted
  • Location: south wales 200m asl
  • Location: south wales 200m asl

Very upsetting news I heard the other day, John Daly died of a heart attack. RIP John, we will all miss you greatly. Thankyou for this contribution you made to our weather community.

John was a great guy, and I will miss him a lot.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Yes RIP John. :cry:

Much as I disagreed with your views. It's my opinion that those views should be heard. The other-side-of-the-coin is an essential part of any argument! :D :cry:

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