Philip Eden

[du_snow]

Philip Eden, a trained meteorologist from the university of Birmingham worked for several years as a weather forecaster in the oil industrybefore he started his career on the radio, well known to the audience of BBC Five Live since 1994. He writes for The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph and also authored a couple of very popular weather books. Philip writes weekly features for WeatherOnline UK & Ireland since March 2001.

Over to Philip!

1) What weather type interests you most of all? Why?

Oh, I'm a snow nut like everyone else, I usually find an excuse to go

out for a long walk whenever we have a decent fall (not that that

happens very often these days). But there is the proviso that, as I get

older, the thought of falling over and breaking something does

occasionally intrude ... having a dodgy back doesn't help either.

But I should also say that I find something of interest in all types of

weather, and scarcely a day passes without something surprising or

unusual happening. I even chose to live on a hillside facing west so

that I get to see some fantastic sunsets.

I know that there are a lot of people who are fascinated by weather

extremes, especially heavy snow, violent thunderstorms and tornadoes,

but if that's all that interests you, you are missing out on an awful

lot of other things, and you are going to be awfully bored and

frustrated during the long gaps between extremes.

Anyway, back to snow, I was lucky enough to grow up in the 60s, so I had

some pretty exciting winters when I was at school, including that of

62-63 and I can still remember the weather detail for practically every

day from December 22 to March 4. There were some other good snowstorms

too ... notably 4th March 1970 when it lay 15 inches deep in Birmingham

(which is where I was then), and the forecast the previous night had

been "sunny spells and scattered wintry showers". They wouldn't get

away with one like that now!

2) What subjects did you take at school, and at what age did you

decide you wanted to pursue metoerology/climatoligy?

It was *that* winter. There was a whole generation of meteorologists who

were inspired by the winter of 1947, and another one -- mine -- who were

inspired by 1962-63. When I was at school the only way of pursuing a

career in meteorology was to take maths and physics, but I perversely

chose to go down the geography route as that was my best subject. I took

four A-levels ... the others were maths, french and economics -- an odd

combination for a meteorologist. What it did was to give me a broad

education, a feel for language, and an ability to be critical ... all

things which have stood me in good stead in the broadcasting and writing

worlds. Too many scientists (not just meteorologists) become too

narrowly specialised too early. That's probably where the "boffin"

phenomenon comes from. These days, the Met Office no longer believe that a thorough grounding in maths and physics at the expense of everything

else is necessary for all their staff, so if your maths isn't too hot

there's still hope for you yet.

3) Have you ever experienced an extreme weather event? If so, what?

Well, I've talked about some of the big snowfalls already. What else?

Well, I worked in the Gulf area for a few years and when I was in Dubai

one summer in the early-80s we had several days with a maximum

temperature of 47ºC. I don't actually like hot weather at all, but at

least in Dubai everything was air-conditioned -- home, office, car,

sports centre, hotels, supermarkets, etc etc, so I didn't have to spend

much time out in it. But I do have a vivid memory of crossing a large

empty car-park made of black asphalt -- the heat radiating from that was

unbelievable. Lowest temperature I ever experienced was in Aberdeen one January ... minus 19.

Around the same time I also did some tours of duty on the oil rigs in

the northern North Sea when the oil production platforms were being

installed. I remember one New Year's Eve going out to do the 3-hourly

weather observations in a fierce gale. Normally I'd take my whirling

psychrometer and hand-held anemometer onto the heli-deck to make the

measurements, but not that day -- I would have been blown away. In the

end I had to make do with standing on the upper gangway on an exposed

corner of the rig; I measured a sustained wind of 72 knots, gusting to

90 knots, and I was battered and soaked by vicious clouds of spray being

torn off the top of the waves by the wind. We could actually estimate

the wave height pretty accurately by looking at the legs of the

production platform next to which our rig was working. Waves on that

occasion averaged 30-32 feet high. That was scary.

4) We have a lot of 'snow-lovers' on our community, so here is the 'be

all and end all' question!: Can you see this Winter being cold, average,

or mild? Much snow?

Well, we are certainly in a sequence of very "un-westerly" months at the

moment. Whenever the westerlies come back, they get interrupted again

after a week or ten days. If this continues -- and it's a big 'if' --

the coming winter should be an interesting one, although the chances of

it being a historic snowy one are pretty small. The worst that could

happen for snow-lovers, I suppose, is that it ends up being totally

anticyclonic, like 1991-92 was.

What I would say, however, is this. Whatever the underlying trend in the

world climate, there is absolutely no reason at all why the synoptic

patterns which produced famous cold winters like 1947 and 1963 couldn't

happen again. And a winter with a mean temperature one or two degrees

higher than 1963 would still be a very cold and very snowy one. My

money's on 2007-8.

5) What do you find to be the biggest factor in producing a cold

Winter in the UK? Northern Hemisphere snow cover? Solar activity? NAO?

Ah, well I suppose I've just answered that. Snow cover over northern

and central Europe is, of course, very important because that reduces

the temperature of the lowest layer of the atmosphere ... and the really

long winters have all been easterly, not northerly. I have not seen any

research that persuades me that the variability in solar output has any

impact on the synoptic patterns which produce our coldest weather. It is

a branch of meteorology which has suffered severely over the last 75

years from being peopled by oddballs.

Now, the NAO. It's important to remember that the NAO is simply an index

of the strength of the circulation in our part of the hemisphere. It

doesn't have a life of its own. The NAO index is a result of the

sequence of synoptic patterns which make up a month, or a season, or a

year, not the other way round. The synoptic patterns do not happen

*because* the NAO is positive or negative; the NAO is positive or

negative *because* of the synoptic patterns. On that basis, a very cold

winter will inevitably be associated with a negative NAO index, but the

NAO didn't cause the cold winter.

6) What did you make of the breaking of 100F this summer? A one-off

synoptic situation? Climate change?

Both, I suspect, although I don't *know* any more than anyone else does.

Recent research has shown that extreme high temperatures in the UK are

increasing at a rate of 0.7 degC per century. The 1990 record was 0.4

degC higher than the previous record in 1911, that's a rate of 0.5 degC

per century. But the 2003 record was 1.5 degC higher than the 1990, and

that's a rate of 11 degC per century!!!!! So I think that the synoptic

detail had a considerable input on this occasion. I happened to be in

France during that heatwave, and we had 11 straight days between 37 and

40ºC with night minus around 22-24ºC. It was an endurance rather than a

holiday, and I can quite understand why so many people died from the

heat there.

7) Who do you most look up to in the feild of meteorology/climatoligy,

and why?

The people I most look up to are long dead, so I can spare their blushes

by naming them. Victorian trail-blazers like G.J Symons and James

Glaisher I have immense admiration for ... they set up climatological

networks, Symons's rainfall network was over 5000 strong (all voluntary

observers) by the time he kicked the bucket, and he administered it,

analysed the data (all by hand, remember, in those days), and published

an annual volume, for over 40 years. In the 20th century I have tried to

follow in the footsteps of Hubert Lamb and especially Gordon Manley,

both superb writers on the subject, and also meticulous collaters and

analysers of data. If any of these people had had computers to help with

their work they would have been able to do so much more. If you've

never heard of any of these guys, you should really spend one of those

long winter weekends researching them -- they led fascinating lives and

should be an inspiration to anyone interested in our weather and

climate. As far as doing the weather on the radio is concerned, if I

needed any advice there was only one person I would turn to, and that

was Jack Scott, who, by the way, is still very much alive. Younger

readers may not remember him ... he was the chief BBC telly forecaster

from about 1967 to 1983, and went on to Thames TV until about 1988.

Best regards

Philip Eden

Philip's book's can be found on amazon, some title's include:

The Daily Telegraph Book of the Weather (New Century)

Weatherwise: The "Sunday Telegraph" Companion to the British Weather

and....

Weather Facts (DK Pockets)

http://www.forbesbookclub.com/bookpage.asp...p?prod_cd=IHU4L

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search...4531738-1717266

These links can (hopefully!) be used to access information on them.

I would like to thank Philip for the time and effort he has put in for this interview....a round of applause for Philip Eden!

[Ross B]

Thanks for that a very interesting read

*clap* *clap*.....

[du_snow]

Thanks for saying so ross, its like a ghost town in here, maybe everyone shocked at Philips replies or summat

[Ross B]

just wait a few weeks until it starts snowing, it might be a bit busier then

[du_snow]

Going to be deserted all Winter then!

[Ross B]

lol, just like the south of england a desert

[Supercell]

It really is a gnarly interview. Its like a life story explaining extremes etc.. a great read!!

[thunderfoot]

Thank you Du_snow and philip for a Great read

[Snow_Lover]

Well done du_snow and Phillip Eden for putting together such a great interview. Great thoughts, and very good questions! Hopefully we will keep getting more and more new facinating interviews.... Has anything been lined up???

[Mr_Snowblower]

Excellent read indeed - most interesting. Well done du snow and thanks to Philip.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yeh! well done on that interview very interesting! I'm glad he has not budged from his 2007/8 winter for the next cold one. He no doubt has a great knowledge on the subject and is a great weather historian!

[du_snow]

Glad you liked it guys

I havent got anyone lined up atm, but Im working on a few. ChaserUK has got Gary England for an interview, but he's busy atm with other things

[marksledgerholic]

HIYA DUNC IM JUST WONDERING HOW YOU GET IN CONTACT WE THESE PEOPLE .

O AND GET BILL GILES IN AS WELL TO EXPLAIN ALL HIS WRONG FORECASTS AND GET SOME 1 FROM METCHECK TO LOL

[Martin R]

Mark do u use TWO forum there was an interview with bill on there a few weeks bac

[marksledgerholic]

no mate i only go on here and snow watch thanx for telling me though mate much appreciated

kind regards mark

[mr_crazy_snowfan]

gufaaaaaawwwwwwwwww mr sledgerholics! u is cracks ups! maybe u is should do those interviews eh? gufaawwwwwww!

well dones du snows!! me glad u is asked the 'winter will be likes' questions! u is should puts that right at top of interview!!