Unusual Winter?

[SP1986]

I'd rather have a warmer than average winter with cold spells embedded, than a cooler than average winter with little or no variation.

Agreed, It's a northern-western zonal thinking area is that!

A nice cooler spell with snow showers on a northwesterly, followed by a southwesterly flow bringing a fohn effect sounds a perfect winter setup to me...

[The Enforcer]

Jan-Feb 1978 had alternating spells of cold and snowy with mild interludes. In Yorkshire it snowed on four consecutive Thursdays as I recall, thereby saving me the penury of rugby / games. 1996 was zonal snowy.

I'd rather have a warmer than average winter with cold spells embedded, than a cooler than average winter with little or no variation.

Thought so. Interesting that whilst comparisons were made before winter even started, a comparison with 1996 reveals quite different synoptics.

I suppose the question I should have posed is will the UK get significant cold and snowy spells in a winter where the Jet is dominant anymore? It is looking increasingly unlikely.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It depends on whether we can somehow get that jet tracking further south.

February 1996 didn't have an especially southerly jet, but it wasn't exactly raging through 70N and being propelled by Icelandic Lows; thus, cold blocks repeatedly formed to the north and brought short lived but significant snow events from the N, NE and E, and there was even one from a W'ly in places around the 25th/26th.

In February 1994, there was a Russian High, but an important difference with this winter was that the jet stayed quite strong, but drifted south. Cold air came in from the east on the northern flank of the lows, and brought snow showers to the east and mild/cold frontal battlegrounds.

There was even a classic example of "polar NW'ly snowfalls" oriented jet in the mid 1990s, with lows taking a NW-SE track into central Europe and pulling in tongues of Arctic air; the month was March 1995.

However, can we even get back to the southerly jets we had in the mid 1990s?

[Yeti]

:huh:

[Terminal Moraine]

The least snowy winters here ( regarding number or mornings with lying snow at 0900) since 1963 are;

1998......2

1989..... 5

1992......6

1993......7

By winter I mean only the period Dec'-Feb'

The mean temperature anomaly from the 1971-2000 period for each of these winters was;

1998.....+1.7c

1989.....+1.9c

1992.....+0.9c

1993.....+0.2c

The current mean temp' for this winter is running at +0.6c and the number of mornings with lying snow so far is 4.

I've no idea how February will go but at the moment it's looking like the coldest and least snowy winter since 1993. If February is chilly and very dry it could easily be the coldest and least snowy combination on record.

T.M

[reef]

In my opinion this has so far been one of the most boring and snowless winters I can remember. Even winters such as 1999/2000 produced more snow here than 2005/06 has so far. Although Im in the east, all Ive had is around 2cm during the late-December event. January is quickly becoming an absolute stinker with regards to snow and frost, with only one single frost and no lying snow all month. In fact, the last January snow here was in 2004.

There seems to be points made by people suggesting that the synoptics are 'different' this year. However, once again it is just potential and nothing more. Whenever there seems to be a chance of a cold spell something scuppers it. Its just another relatively snowless modern winter, regardless of the average temperatures.

More alarming than the whole 'modern winter' fiasco is the recent trend of heavily blocked winters with a far northerly running PFJ. The Atlantic itself is no quieter than before, its just the jet is so far north that only the far north-west ever feels the effects of the Atlantic depressions. This in itself is the reason why the Bartlett isnt present, the high itself is, but is displaced so far north that the north-west gets the mild air that used to flood the CET zone, while England and especially the south-east sit under cooler air which used to be reserved for France in the 90s.

After one of the most northerly Februaries in 2005, one can only hope February 2006 delivers something similar (though colder). As so far, although many will not say it (probably due to November-tinted glasses), this winter has been terrible. Indeed, Mr Data's Winter index for Manchester says it all.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Absolute rubbish winter. One of the highlights of living where I do is being surrounded by nice snowy hills of the Pennines, Dales and Lakes, but this year, it just hasn't happened. I can only remember one or two days when the hills had anything white on.

Garbage.

[Bottesford]

I've liked this winter for the clear skies. Well ok the first half of winter anyway. November & December were great- Sunny by day, crystal clear by night making for some lovely views of the high Moon (in Dec) and my first view of Saturn through a telescope. Cold is great when it's clear.

January, however, has been pretty rubbish. Too much cloud. That cloudy easterly we had earlier the month was the worst. Cold & grey is awful. At least mild & cloudy has the bonus of mild (which is nice to give some respite from the cold in mid-winter so long as not all the time).

Seemed a fairly different winter to me, colder feeling & clearer. So good.Extremely dry though of course. Which won't be great come summer.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Living bang in the south east here - give me 4 weeks of Bartlett high and I'll still say it's a decent winter. Used to getting nothing from Northerlies and where I live the PPN from North easterlies fizzle out before it gets here in deepest southern Essex. Easterlies are the only chance this region gets of getting lying snow and though what we got was pitiful, at least we got something we wouldn't have got in another year.

Highlights then - November frosts, spectacular indeed because of the hard crusty white ground, and the December 28 2005 snow, which deposited 2 centimetres in an evening. This snow event was arguably better than Feb 2005 because the ground did not turn green a couple of hours later (due to the time the PPN fell, at night not the morning) and I got to make a mini-snowman (in the dark!). The next morning was a white sea of slush.

I recognise it is a staggeringly poor winter for much of the British Isles and it's been a let down for the east too, my heart goes out to London, but by my staggeringly low expectations in this staggeringly dry (drier than Lebanon), if cool part of the country this year, just one overnight snow shower makes the winter something to remember. If I want anything more I know I'll have to move to Kent, or Norfolk. :huh:

My very personal opinion.

[John Cox]

The Beast is just born........it will lick its wounds from its first British conflict and return east.

But it will be back....and will be back bigger, better, and stronger ! And it will prevail. Ha ha !

Those that choose to ignore do so at their peril

You have been warned (cue spooky music) wooo-wooo

Tamara

Hi Tamara,

Same here in Dublin.

My Irish counterparts totally disagree with me though.

I dont think they see the synoptic change and its consequences for the future.

Strange

A new winter has been born this year.

Next year will continue this trend and expand

[Weather-history]

As I've said before, a below average winter does not necessarily mean a snowier one, as TWS has mentioned, the examples I always use to show this is the winters of 1963-64 and 1993-94.

Other examples include the winters of 1902-03, 1903-04, 1904-05 and 1905-06. They were not especially snowy but only 1902-03 was particularly mild , the others were close to the average.

[SteveB]

The only talking point of this winter will be the below average months and the lack of snow, so in that respect it has bucked a trend.

And when next winter comes along and there is talk of it being a cold winter again those two points above will be thrown into the mix as weight for the arguement , like the cold spell at the end of Feb was used for this winter predicted cold weather.

[The Enforcer]

Next year will continue this trend and expand

I'm not sure that there is a trend as yet. The preceeding few winters have all been mild. This still has the possibility of being (much) closer to average. There is no guarantee what form next winter will take.

Modern Winterism finally died in Hastings late Dec 2005.

The Beast is just born........it will lick its wounds from its first British conflict and return east.

But it will be back....and will be back bigger, better, and stronger ! And it will prevail. Ha ha !

Those that choose to ignore do so at their peril

You have been warned (cue spooky music) wooo-wooo

Have you gone slightly mad, Madam?

[Cloudburst]

Here in worcs, it doesnt seem that far off normal, in the last 5 years we have had so little snow here it doesnt make a difference anymore. Although i would agree on the whole, that the u.k has seen more dry cold days than normal.

[Stratos Ferric]

Absolute rubbish winter. One of the highlights of living where I do is being surrounded by nice snowy hills of the Pennines, Dales and Lakes, but this year, it just hasn't happened. I can only remember one or two days when the hills had anything white on.

Garbage.

The garbage where I live isn't white - well, it is but it also has a strange red, yellow and orange M on it - can anyone explain? The chavs from Keighley seem to delight in sharing their food wrappers with us country dwellers: don't they realise we grow our own?

Cold end to November although missed out on any snow. Plenty of frost so far. Three days of heavy snow showers after xmas with several inches of lying snow. Some light snow flurries second week of Jan - although the rest of the month has been rather boring. Very little atlantic influence whatsoever throughout.

Can't complain about all that personally at all.

Overall a quiet chilly winter with mixed regional perceptions as now people would view it. But with time left to still leave many more of us with a smile on our faces.

Perfect evidence of a cooling trend which has started over the last year or so and is IMO destined to prove that the wilderness years of a shift north in the Azores High and PFJ has been no more than an extended phase and has come to an end.

Modern Winterism finally died in Hastings late Dec 2005.

The Beast is just born........it will lick its wounds from its first British conflict and return east.

But it will be back....and will be back bigger, better, and stronger ! And it will prevail. Ha ha !

Those that choose to ignore do so at their peril

You have been warned (cue spooky music) wooo-wooo

Tamara

Tamara,

do please assure me that you have not, secretly, been dating EITS? lol!

[noggin]

Perfect evidence of a cooling trend which has started over the last year or so

Tamara

I couldn't agree more. The snow event in Jan 2004....that's when I thought "ah...it's started". Winters will get increasingly colder now, IMVHO. So will Summers, so it will all year round! Even my 13 yo daughter said the other day that Summers had cooled down since 2003 (yes I know ththere have only been two, but the longest journey starts with one step). It's coming, it's definitely coming. We are on the cusp of the change and the change will gather speed as we go along, just like driving over the crest of a hill.

As for this Winter....in this neck of the woods it has definitely felt generally colder than the last 10ish years. Certainly more in the way of frost. A huge change is that there has been almost nothing from the Atlantic.

A new winter has been born this year.

Next year will continue this trend and expand

morning John......gladdens your heart, doesn't it!

Yes, a new Winter has been born, of the seed that was sown about two years ago.

regards

noggin

[drgl]

I couldn't agree more. The snow event in Jan 2004....that's when I thought "ah...it's started". Winters will get increasingly colder now, IMVHO. So will Summers, so it will all year round! Even my 13 yo daughter said the other day that Summers had cooled down since 2003 (yes I know ththere have only been two, but the longest journey starts with one step). It's coming, it's definitely coming. We are on the cusp of the change and the change will gather speed as we go along, just like driving over the crest of a hill.

As for this Winter....in this neck of the woods it has definitely felt generally colder than the last 10ish years. Certainly more in the way of frost. A huge change is that there has been almost nothing from the Atlantic.

morning John......gladdens your heart, doesn't it!

Yes, a new Winter has been born, of the seed that was sown about two years ago.

regards

noggin

I agree,i watched our winters get slowly milder with less and less snow & frosts and now i have been watching the slow reverse for the last two-three years. Wait & see................

[TEITS]

do please assure me that you have not, secretly, been dating EITS? lol!

Damn tamara our secret is out

[noggin]

I agree,i watched our winters get slowly milder with less and less snow & frosts and now i have been watching the slow reverse for the last two-three years. Wait & see................

Always good to see someone else with the same thoughts! Blow the charts.....it's getting out there and observing it and feeling it that shows what the trend is.

Colder Winters...hooray

Not such horrible hot Summers....hooray :huh:

[The Enforcer]

I agree,i watched our winters get slowly milder with less and less snow & frosts and now i have been watching the slow reverse for the last two-three years. Wait & see................

But last winter there were hardly any frosts - hence why the snow in February failed to stick.

[noggin]

But last winter there were hardly any frosts - hence why the snow in February failed to stick.

How many have you had so far this Winter?

[John Cox]

morning John......gladdens your heart, doesn't it!

Yes, a new Winter has been born, of the seed that was sown about two years ago.

regards

noggin

Morning Noggin,

A nice frosty week ahead. I love this type of weather.

My fellow Irish compatriots are at odds with my view on this winter. They think it has been mild

It takes all types, even me :huh:

[The Enforcer]

How many have you had so far this Winter?

I haven't been logging them, but at a guess I'd say well into the teens. I'd observed more frosts in november than the whole of last winter.

In other words, this winter is shaping up differently, solely due to it's anticyclonic nature, which wasn't a trait of any of the previous 00 winters, hence there is no pattern or trend as yet.

[noggin]

A thought occurs to me..... I wonder if, theolder you are, the more likely it is that you can see and feel the trends?

[Bottesford]

I would love this weather if the damn sky would clear! It's trying to brighten but still overcast here. Does mean it's only 1C. If it clears later they'll be a severe frost.