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Tc Vaianu


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Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford

    This seems to have gone un-noticed here.

    Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI

    Feb 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.

    Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.7 South

    174.2 West at 14012600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS

    imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving

    southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to

    the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,

    over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150

    miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and

    within 100 miles elsewhere.

    Overall organisation still remains good. Outer convective bands are

    weakening but inner bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc.

    Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere.

    Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Vaianu is expected to weaken

    beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs and increased shear aloft. Dvorak

    analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5,

    thus T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a

    deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this

    with graduall weakening.

    FORECAST:

    12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 174.3W mov ESE at 08kt with 65

    kt close to the centre.

    24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.4S 171.5W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt

    close to the centre.

    OUTLOOK:

    36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.7S 169.7W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt

    close to the centre.

    48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 28.9S 168.7W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt

    close to the centre.

    The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

    will be issued around 142000 UTC.

    Track

    IR Image

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    Oops. missed that, along with Invest 99W which I noticed about 2 days ago.

    99W looks to me like a fairly large system. Might just be the range of the image though?

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tables&DISPLAY=

    TC VAIANU though certainly wasn't on the navy's radar at that point. They report it as declining though. (and they recon it's a typhoon?)

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...D=gif&SIZE=full

    Somebody tell me - does the Pacific have an official season?, and if so, what are it's start and end dates?

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
    Oops. missed that, along with Invest 99W which I noticed about 2 days ago.

    99W looks to me like a fairly large system. Might just be the range of the image though?

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...tables&DISPLAY=

    TC VAIANU though certainly wasn't on the navy's radar at that point. They report it as declining though. (and they recon it's a typhoon?)

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...D=gif&SIZE=full

    Somebody tell me - does the Pacific have an official season?, and if so, what are it's start and end dates?

    I wouldn't go by the Navy, use the various RSMCs around the world instead.

    You don't get typhoons in this part of the world. NW Pacific season is al year round, SW Pacific is more like November to April. (Well that is the Australian season anyway)

    ZCZC 179

    WTNZ41 NZKL 151306

    STORM WARNING 189

    THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: SUBTROPIC AND PACIFIC

    TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU 980HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5 SOUTH

    170.7 WEST AT 151200 UTC. POSITION FAIR.

    REPEAT POSITION 26.5S 170.7W AT 151200 UTC.

    CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING SLOWLY.

    EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

    EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND

    OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST

    SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 150 MILES ELSEWHERE.

    FORECAST POSITION NEAR 27.5S 169.0W AT 160000 UTC

    AND NEAR 28.5S 166.5W AT 161200 UTC.

    THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 186.

    NNNN

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
    crimsone, 99W is another system completely

    This is the other system.

    WWCI50 BABJ 151800

    1:31:11:01:00

    BT

    SECURITE=

    MESSAGE FOR NAVAREA XI(IOR) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

    AT 2215UTC FEB. 15 2006=

    MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS=

    SYNOPSIS VALID 1800UTC FEB. 15=

    FORECAST VALID 1800UTC FEB. 16=

    WARNING=

    NIL=

    SUMMARY=

    LOW PRESSURE AREA 1005HPA NEAR 05N 136E MOVING WEST

    SLOWLY=

    WINDS FROM 6 TO 10M/S SEAS UP TO 2.0M OVER YELLOW SEA

    AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND EAST

    CHINA SEA AND KOREA STRAIT AND SEA OF JAPAN AND

    BASHI CHANNEL=

    SW WINDS FROM 6 TO 12M/S SEAS UP TO 2.5M OVER SEA NEAR

    RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS=

    WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA

    SOUTH OF JAPAN=

    NE WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA EAST OF

    PHILIPPINES=

    SE WINDS FROM 8 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA

    NORTHEAST OF AUSTRALIA=

    HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER PART OF

    YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT

    AND BEIBU GULF AND SOUTH CHINA COASTAL WATERS AND

    SEA OF JAPAN SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN AND KOREA STRAIT AND

    PART SEA NEAR LUZON=

    HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND

    NORTH OF G. OF THAILAND AND LAUT JAWA AND LAUT MALUKU AND

    LAUT BANDA AND SEA SOUTH OF JAWA AND PART OF SULAWESI SEA AND

    ARAFURA SEA AND MALACCA STRAIT AND SEL. MAKASSAR AND SEA WEST

    OF SUMATERA AND PART SEA NEAR KALIMANTAN=

    FORECAST=

    N/NE WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER BOHAI SEA

    AND BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA AND

    TAIWAN STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND KOREA STRAIT

    AND SEA NEAR RYUKYU-GUNTO ISLANDS=

    NE/ENE WINDS FROM 8 TO 16M/S SEAS UP TO 3.5M OVER

    SOUTH CHINA SEA AND BASHI CHANNEL=

    WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER BEIBU GULF=

    NW WINDS FROM 8 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA OF JAPAN=

    WINDS FROM 8 TO 18M/S SEAS UP TO 4.0M OVER SEA EAST OF

    JAPAN AND SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

    WINDS FROM 6 TO 14M/S SEAS UP TO 3.0M OVER SEA EAST OF

    PHILIPPINES=

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    crimsone, 99W is another system completely, heres a image of Vaianu presently:

    Indeed KW. methinks I need to learn to write a little more clearly. lol

    So, if the S Pacific is Nov to April, what's the W Pacific?

    You may well be right about not going by the navy PK. I just happened to be looking a day ot two before, and now I see two more invests in the south pacific. 99w is off the radar, but say hello to 97S and 98S

    Looks like Vaianu has quite abruptly collapsed...

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropica...-275S-1683W.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Watford
  • Location: Watford
    Indeed KW. methinks I need to learn to write a little more clearly. lol

    So, if the S Pacific is Nov to April, what's the W Pacific?

    You may well be right about not going by the navy PK. I just happened to be looking a day ot two before, and now I see two more invests in the south pacific. 99w is off the radar, but say hello to 97S and 98S

    The New Zealand Met Service declared this ET yesterday.

    There is no W Pacific basin, but the SW and NW Pacific basins. The NW Pacific season is all year round as I said above.

    That Navy page is intended purely for the USA's military, the local RSMCs have better local knowledge so I would always use them.

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