Tropical Cyclone Floyd+tropical Cyclone Glenda

[summer blizzard]

IDW24100

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Saturday, 25 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is now current for coastal

areas between Mardie and Carnarvon.

At 8Pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD was estimated to be

470 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and

725 kilometres north north west of Carnarvon

and was moving southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD is expected to continue to weaken as it moves

towards the coast. Gales are not expected in coastal communities in the next 24

hours, but may develop within 48 hours if the system does not weaken

sufficiently prior to crossing the coastline.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD at 8Pm WST.

Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of

Latitude 18.8 South Longitude 111.1 East.

Recent movement : Southeast at 18 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 955 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 205 kilometres per hour near the centre.

Severity category : 3.

FESA-SES advise there are no community alerts at this stage.

The next warning will be issued at 3am Sunday. Cyclone advices and State

Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by

dialling 1300 659 210

Here is the link to some pictures of the storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&PROD=composite

[wolves78]

IDW24100

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3

Issued at 3:05 am WST on Sunday, 26 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE is now current for coastal

areas between Mardie and Carnarvon.

At 2am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD was estimated to be

415 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and

680 kilometres north north west of Carnarvon

and was moving southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD is expected to continue to weaken as it moves

towards the coast. Gales are not expected in coastal communities today, but may

develop during Monday if the system does not weaken sufficiently prior to

crossing the coastline.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD at 2am WST.

Location of centre : within 45 kilometres of

Latitude 19.1 South Longitude 111.5 East.

Recent movement : Southeast at 10 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 960 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour near the centre.

Severity category : 3.

FESA-SES advise there are no community alerts at this stage.

The next warning will be issued at 9am Sunday. Cyclone advices and State

Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by

dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

FLYOD has been building up since the 18th of march long lasting storm

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60280.gif?1143314781339

seems to have slowed down at the moment dont think it will be long before we see it being a cat 4

Edited March 25, 2006 by wolves78

[P.K.]

The title of this thread is a bit misleading, TC Floyd has been around since the 20th March and is reaching the end of its life.

[wolves78]

The title of this thread is a bit misleading, TC Floyd has been around since the 20th March and is reaching the end of its life.

as you may or may not have read mate its been around since the 18th as a low now building into summet up to a cat 4 but looks to make landfall it is a missleading thread name as i said in my last post all ppl need to do is look at the pics and read what is with it :blush:

[summer blizzard]

IDW24100

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8

Issued at 5:50 pm WST on Sunday, 26 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas

between Onslow and Coral Bay.

The CYCLONE WATCH east to Mardie and south to Carnarvon has been CANCELLED

At 5pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD was estimated to be

300 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and

400 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay

and was moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD is expected to continue to weaken as it moves towards the

coast. Gales are not expected in coastal communities today, but may develop on

Monday if the system does not weaken sufficiently prior to approaching the

coastline.

Details of TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOYD at 5pm WST.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of

Latitude 19.7 South Longitude 112.5 East.

Recent movement : south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 980 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour near the centre.

Severity category : 2.

FESA-SES advise there are no community alerts at this stage.

The next warning will be issued at 9pm WST Sunday. Cyclone advices and State

Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by

dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Looks like Tropical Cyclone Floyd has weakened.

Sorry, i did not realise it had formed so early as i did not see a thread for it, please could a moderator change the name of the thread.

[P.K.]

as you may or may not have read mate its been around since the 18th as a low

It was upgraded to TC Floyd at 2100 GMT on the 20th March.

[wolves78]

as floyd is on the way out looks to be followed up with glenda

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24200.txt

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...&DISPLAY=Latest

[wolves78]

what a season for australia

floyd has gone so no point in starting a new thread on glenda looks to skirt the western coastal regions of aus no land threat so far

IDW24200

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25

Issued at 2:40 am WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE for coastal and island

areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south to

Dampier.

At 2am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be

120 kilometres north northwest of Cape Leveque and

260 kilometres north of Broome

and was moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal parts

between Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay until early morning. The cyclone is expected

to move roughly parallel to the coast in the next few days and intensify

further. Should the cyclone move closer to the coast than expected, gales with

gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may extend south to Bidyadanga during Tuesday

and then south to Dampier during Wednesday or the early hours of Thursday.

Tides will be higher than normal between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through the Kimberley with heavy falls

possible in western coastal parts. Refer to current flood warnings for more

information.

Details of the TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 2am WST Tuesday.

Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of

Latitude 15.6 South Longitude 122.2 East.

Recent movement : West southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 965 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 185 kilometres per hour.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities of Mitchell Plateau, Kuri Bay, One

Arm Point, Beagle Bay, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Broome should commence taking

precautions.

The next warning will be issued at 6am WST Tuesday.Cyclone advices and State

Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by

dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

98S.INVEST

is another one to watch but will it make land fall?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_p...1041E.100pc.jpg

ANY OF THE MODS would you like to re name this thread to the reast of the southern HEM season as all the tc's atm seem to die out so quick

worth one thread atm

Edited March 27, 2006 by wolves78

[Aussie Big Ben]

This shows that Glenda is predicted to make landfall in about 48 hours. according to the JTWC in 48 hours she will be a category 4, winds around 95 knots gusting to 115 knots.

[Aussie Big Ben]

http://data.theweather.com.au/access/image...s_wa_latest.jpg

Is this what I've seen referred to as a pinhole eye? What does that mean for a system?

This is a very quickly developing storm from nothing to cat 3 in under 24 hours, probably a cat 4 already, if so how much further will it develope?

Sorry couldn't post the image, the link is dynamic. I'll search for one that can be posted.

Edit yep here is one that works.

.

Edited March 28, 2006 by Aussie Big Ben

[Aussie Big Ben]

This has got to category 4 from its forming in about 36 hours, is it just me or is that really quick? predicted to strengthen further, is another cat 5 going to happen?

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28

Issued at 11:55 am WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal and island

areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga. A CYCLONE WATCH extends along the

Northwest coast to Exmouth.

At 11am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be

180 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and

260 kilometres north northwest of Broome

and was moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal parts

between Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay for the next few hours.

Should the cyclone take a more southwesterly track then gales with gusts to 120

kilometres per hour may extend south to Bidyadanga during the day.

The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast for the next 24 to

36 hours and continue to intensify. Communities in the central and western

Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is likely to be near

the coast in 48 to 72 hours time.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 11am WST Tuesday.

Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of

Latitude 15.8 South Longitude 121.4 East.

Recent movement : West southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 940 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 235 kilometres per hour.

Severity Category : 4

[Aussie Big Ben]

Number 30 is due soon (within the hour)

It dropped 15hp in 3 hours and JTWC expects that it will reach 150kts sustained wins gusting to 180kts at 291800Z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29

Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal areas

between Wallal and Exmouth.

The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal and island areas between Cape Leveque and

Bidyadanga has been cancelled.

At 2pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be

200 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and

260 kilometres north northwest of Broome

and was moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast for the next 24 to

36 hours and continue to intensify.

Communities in the central and western Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE

TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to approach coast during Thursday or Friday,

when it is likely to be a very dangerous tropical cyclone with very destructive

winds.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 2pm WST Tuesday.

Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of

Latitude 16.0 South Longitude 121.1 East.

Recent movement : West southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 925 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 265 kilometres per hour.

Severity Category : 4

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody tell me what the sustained windspeeds are please as i can only find the maximum gusts????????

Advisory 30 is not out yet.

SITUATION

At 0600UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda located within 20 nautical miles of

Latitude sixteen decimal zero degrees South [16.0S]

Longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal one degrees East [121.1E]

Recent movement : West southwest at 6 knots.

Maximum winds : 100 knots.

Central pressure : 925hPa.

100 knots converts to 115mph, by 06:00 tommorow, Tropical Cyclone Glenda is expected to have sustained winds of 138mph, i am not sure which scale the Australians use because by the Saffir-Simpson scale, Tropical Cyclone Glenda should currently be a category 3, increasing to category 4 tommorow.

[P.K.]

The SS scale is only used by the NHC. This system is close to being a cat 5 now.

[Aussie Big Ben]

The eye is tiny. Idf you look at the broome 256k radar loop, you can clearly see the eye. Looks to be about 10km (6 miles) across.

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR172.loop.shtml

My bad on number thirty, I saw 9pm and assumed AEDT, I was 3 hours out. 30 due in about 2 hours

[Joneseye]

Is this what I've seen referred to as a pinhole eye? What does that mean for a system?

I remember Rita had a pinhole eye, which as far as I can tell makes it very dangerous as it can lead to rapid drops in central pressure.

For clarification somebody like Kold Weather or Mondy may be able to help?

Ian

[Aussie Big Ben]

Summer blizzard, from the BOM website.

So it's currently 115kts gusting to 140kts (from JTWC) - 115kts is about 210 (115*1.85) which makes it a category 5. the BOM update will reflect this I suspect.

Edited March 28, 2006 by Aussie Big Ben

[kold weather]

Yes it does look like a pinhole eye to me, very small indeed though there have been smaller but I'll get to that later.

They are usually a sign of rapid strengthening with a tight pressure gradiant causing very high winds indeed.

Usually though even the powerful systems can't hang onto the pinhole eye for more then 12-18hrs before undertaking a eyewall replacement, and it'll be this that will weaken Glenda I suspect tommrow IF it follows the norm.

Anyway the smallest eye ever recorded must surely fall to one of the most powerful hurricanes ever:

WILMA:

[P.K.]

So it's currently 115kts gusting to 140kts (from JTWC) - 115kts is about 210 (115*1.85) which makes it a category 5. the BOM update will reflect this I suspect.

The BoM will not be copying the JTWC. The BoM and JTWC use different wind measuring periods anyway.

[wolves78]

the eye looks better on this sat image looking like its getting stronger cat 5 soon

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/xxirgms5w.GIF

[Aussie Big Ben]

Number 30 is in

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30

Issued at 9:10 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE for coastal areas

between Wallal and Mardie.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Mardie to Exmouth.

At 8Pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be

240 kilometres northwest of Broome and

450 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland

and was moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Communities along the Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE

GLENDA is expected to approach coast later on Wednesday and during Thursday.

Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour may develop along the Pilbara coast

between Wallal and Mardie as early as Wednesday night but more likely early on

Thursday morning. There is the risk of very destructive winds during Thursday as

the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 8Pm WST Tuesday.

Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of

Latitude 16.7 South Longitude 120.4 East.

Recent movement : Southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 910 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 300 kilometres per hour.

Severity Category : 5

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at

present.

36 hours from conception to a category 5 system. Does anyone know what the quickest time for a 0 to 5 development?

[Newbury High]

Are you anywhere near this Aussie Big Ben?

Ian

[wolves78]

Number 30 is in

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30

Issued at 9:10 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE for coastal areas

between Wallal and Mardie.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Mardie to Exmouth.

At 8Pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be

240 kilometres northwest of Broome and

450 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland

and was moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Communities along the Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE

GLENDA is expected to approach coast later on Wednesday and during Thursday.

Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour may develop along the Pilbara coast

between Wallal and Mardie as early as Wednesday night but more likely early on

Thursday morning. There is the risk of very destructive winds during Thursday as

the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 8Pm WST Tuesday.

Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of

Latitude 16.7 South Longitude 120.4 East.

Recent movement : Southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

Central Pressure : 910 hPa.

Maximum wind gusts : 300 kilometres per hour.

Severity Category : 5

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at

present.

36 hours from conception to a category 5 system. Does anyone know what the quickest time for a 0 to 5 development?

if i remember correctly wilma broke a record from a cat 2 to a cat 5 in 2 1/2 hrs

not sure on the fastest from 0 to 5 though mate

here is an interesting link http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/record2005.asp

Edited March 28, 2006 by wolves78

[Aussie Big Ben]

Are you anywhere near this Aussie Big Ben?

Ian

Nah, I'm in Melbourne recovering from the Commonwealth Games.

88MB in 36 hours is a fair drop in pressure. I wonder if Glenda can get below 900?

2!/2 hours for cat 2 to 5, that's scary.

[Mondy]

This was from earlier on today - the eye just forming.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets...1.2006087.terra