Usa Chase Day 1 Discussion

[Paul]

Paul, Ozzie and the others will be landing in the USA later and are hoping to get straight into the action. They may well get the opportunity to get onto the net whilst at the airport waiting for baggage, their vehicle etc so any info you can give on possible target locations for later in the day could well come in handy. They are landing at Fort Worth, Dallas at around 8Pm BST. which is 2pm local time.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Well I hope they all had a good flight, and managed to get some kip. Although i'm sure the adrenaline will be pumping as soon as they hit the soil of the US.

Looking forward to see what happens.

[wolves78]

Warm and humid air at the surface will bubble up into a pool of colder, drier air aloft across portions of Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa on Sunday, resulting in vigorous thunderstorms which may produce heavy rain, large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few of the most violent thunderstorms may also spin-up a tornado. The churning pool of cold air aloft will provide an intense shearing environment where the surface winds and the wind aloft veer with height promoting rotation within a thunderstorm which may help to spawn a tornado. Strong to severe thunderstorms will also rumble along the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana across Mississippi into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Sunday

[Cloudburst]

Well I hope they all had a good flight, and managed to get some kip. Although i'm sure the adrenaline will be pumping as soon as they hit the soil of the US.

Looking forward to see what happens.

Indeed yes. Look forward to their first post from 'on the road'.

[kold weather]

Well hope all is well with the lads, and hopefully the flight was good.

Present condtions in the Dallas region are very calm with very limited cloud to the north-west of the city, Sw airflow with temps into the low 60's and dewpoints mainly in the 50's, though temps are due to warm up, getting into the 80's by the time they reach the ground later today.

Reasonable Helicity forecast in the SW portion of OK by the eveing period, though not that much cape, still gets upto about 900kj's according to the predicted parameters but there is some dry air now working its way in, possibly a little too dry for any decent cells to brew, though the odd one may form, but not worth taking the risk I dare say!

Further east and as someone else posted some shear present over Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa though its not exactly stunning according to the soundings but it may be JUST enough for some supercells in the eveing hours as a jet streak pushes around a diving upper trough. Cape is forecast to be also between 5-900kjs generally, still reasonable level of moisture in the air so at the very least I think there should be some storms that breaks out around this area, though probably with only a slight risk of anything supercelluer.

Still looking foward to what the guys decide to do once they reach the airport.

[tinybill]

weather warning for may 1 st

It appears that there will be a chance at supercells over portions of eastern kansas and northeast oklahoma on monday the 1st.

While it is unclear how - models are in good agreement that there will be a significant increase in the low level moisture in this region resulting in a fairly unstable (3000 j/kg sbcape) late afternoon and early evening atmosphere. It is also unclear just where low level boundaries will end up.... but it looks like there may be a couple of e/w regions of low level focus. The primary front may end up near the ks/ok border.

WNW flow aloft with an embedded shortwave and 40 kts of h5 flow will spread across the threat area starting late in the afternoon. Forcing associated with the wave combined with surface heating and low level convergence should be suff for the development of storms. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kts combined with the instability suggests that initial activity will be supercellular. At this time... low level cape and shear do not look favorable for tornadoes. Tho... there is always that slight chance a localized area may have everything come together just right. I would expect some nice late day storm structure and the potential for large hail until evolution toward MCS takes place a couple of hours after dark.... at which time higher lightning photo ops are looking good.

[Cloudburst]

Looks like they have a long trip north east if there to see anything today.

Edited April 30, 2006 by ¤CloudBurst¤

[Cloudburst]

First tornado Warning, for MO state

WFUS53 KPAH 301549

TORPAH

MOC133-301615-

/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0055.060430T1547Z-060430T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

1047 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT.

* AT 1047 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO BETWEEN

EAST PRARIE AND ANNISTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WYATT...WILSON CITY AND CHARLESTON

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN EXITS 10 AND 12.

TAKE COVER NOW. IN YOUR HOME...GET INTO THE BASEMENT. IF YOUR HOME IS

WITHOUT A BASEMENT...GET INTO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM WITHOUT WINDOWS

ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE IT AND

GET INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3682 8947 3677 8939 3695 8911 3702 8933

$$

Just to show you the cells here they are :

Edited April 30, 2006 by ¤CloudBurst¤

[kold weather]

Satilite shows them to be on the tailend of the front thats moving eastwards, presently moving into the state of Kentucky with rainfall rates close to 100MM per hour. It's after this batch rolls through then we see the set-up looking good for the afternoon, wil lbe intresting to see the soundings later today.

[Roger J Smith]

30 April 06 _ 1625z

Would advise the chase team to hold tight in the area between DFW and SPS (Wichita Falls) tonight, awaiting gradual development in that area tomorrow. Only a slight chance of isolated TRW+ in western Texas later today as a weak thermal low is developing west of Midland TX but most of TX and OK are under a weak ridge This feature will slowly intensify tomorrow with a weak surface ridge over Oklahoma and a trough from near Midland to the TX-OK border around Ardmore OK. This trough likely to become the focus for TRW+ development with some supercell potential. Best threat zone is likely to be somwhere between Wichita Falls and Graham TX. Would suggest Mineral Wells TX as a good Monday morning position, development is likely to come after noon CDT. This is about a 90 minute drive from Fort Worth west on the interstate highway.

[Cloudburst]

Following on from my last post, warning now removed and storms have lost their potent signatures

[kold weather]

There are some moderate cells still present over Missouri. Further west drier now moving into Texas, as Roger said, thanks to a weak ridge moving into the area, water vapor images shows this quite well with the front feature now moving into the eastern section of the states.

[Roger J Smith]

The following link will give an updating infra-red satellite image for the USA and southern Canada.

<< http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/satelli...am_1070_100.jpg >>

[stevestorms]

Paul, Ozzie and the others will be landing in the USA later and are hoping to get straight into the action. They may well get the opportunity to get onto the net whilst at the airport waiting for baggage, their vehicle etc so any info you can give on possible target locations for later in the day could well come in handy. They are landing at Fort Worth, Dallas at around 8Pm BST. which is 2pm local time.

Best wishes to a early start or chase as they hit the tarmac is a cracking start but boy! is it going to zap the team they would have been traveling for 16+ hrs and just want to get off that bird :blink: however if a Tstorm is on offer in the neighbourhood of their first nights stay YAHOOOO ! WHAT A BONUS, we will be in OKC around 1800hrs CT or 2400hrs BST thursday night/friday morning for you guys at home atm long range is 30% for Tstorms in the OKC area ! I tell yer, it dont get better than a welcome back Tstorm on yer first night especially when you dont have to leave yer hotel to see it will write in meself to give a few reports from my team starting end of next week.

[Cloudburst]

Shouldnt we have heard from them by now?

[wolves78]

Shouldnt we have heard from them by now?

dont think it will be to long now mate its only just after 2pm in the US plus what with all the airport security they will have to go through

sure there all fine and buzzing with excitment

[Cloudburst]

dont think it will be to long now mate its only just after 2pm in the US plus what with all the airport security they will have to go through

sure there all fine and buzzing with excitment

Yes i suppose so, looking forward to hearing what the conditions are like :blink:

[Paul]

They will be landing about now, can't guarantee they have internet access yet though - hopefully they will wherever they decide to stay tonight. Plenty of storm warnings out north of them at the moment:

[wolves78]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 266...RESENT

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1155 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARKANSAS

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS

FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 700

PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF

SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BATESVILLE

ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6

[kold weather]

Well condtions look nice in terms of satilite, looks like hazy condtions where they are landing with some slight high cloud moving in from the WSW/SW. Temps are in the high 70's (Generally upto 77-79F) and dew-points are reducing now though as a weak upper ridge pushes into western parts of America and a plume of drier air comes in with it reducing dew-points and effectivly reducing the risk of any development at least in Texas I'd have thought, with the main target area to the East and north-east of where they are, where some decent thunderstorms may well be possible.

[wolves78]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 267

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT SUN APR 30 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

FAR WEST KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

FAR WEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 900

PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF

MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO

ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

Edited April 30, 2006 by wolves78

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well unless im wrong which is most probable then they landed abour 20 minutes ago. These are the details according to American Airlines ...

estimate arrival time actual arrival time

LGW London, 04/30/2006 10:25 AM 10:16AM N62

Arriving DFW Dallas/ Fort Worth, 04/30/2006 2:20 PM 2:04 PM DD21D5

Edited April 30, 2006 by *Stormforce~beka*

[wolves78]

Well unless im wrong which is most probable then they landed abour 20 minutes ago. These are the details according to American Airlines ...

estimate arrival time actual arrival timeLGW London, 04/30/200610:25 AM10:16 AMN62 ArrivingDFW Dallas/ Fort Worth, 04/30/20062:20 PM2:04 PMDD21D5

you are spot on its now currently 15:41pm

but as paul said they prob have no net access just a case of wait and see

Edited April 30, 2006 by wolves78

[Paul]

Good spot there Beka, they may briefly have net access but I'm sure their main priorities once sorting the normal airport stuff out will be to get themselves to somewhere with some action today or to somewhere within easy reach of some action tomorrow :blink:

[wolves78]

Good spot there Beka, they may briefly have net access but I'm sure their main priorities once sorting the normal airport stuff out will be to get themselves to somewhere with some action today or to somewhere within easy reach of some action tomorrow :blink:

ooopppps sorry paul i used that wink i 4got you hated it

looks like they might have to do a few hours more travel tday to see something only time will tell