Us Chase Day 10 - Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Tomorrow is being ramped up big time out here, so could be a big Supercell day, current thinking is to jaunt down to OK City and grab data to see where the action may be, and after 2 BUST Days :blush: B) We are ever hopeful to get you some big Supercell pictures and hopefully the classic Tornado Pictures.

Again if you have any ideas or think we are way out please feel free to post your thoughts here.

Regards

Paul Sherman

Week 1 Total

1-8 May 2006

7 Supercells

1 Tornado

1 Landspout

2 Funnel Clouds

1 Bow Echo with 70 mph Straight line winds

Hail to 4.75 Inches on the road in front of us.

[wolves78]

looks a good area for today

southern Plains central Texas to southern Missouri

just a quick guess hope you manage to get the rite conditions tday think you will look forward to hearing from you later take care

[stevestorms]

Morning all ahhh frereshed after a 4 hours sleep!! ok looks like rough area for today atm i40 somewhere near the Oklahoma/Arkansas Boarders with a maybe to drop south along that east side of Oklahoma 10% tornado risk today so thats the best we have had so far it dont sound much but tornados often form with only a 2% risk :-) oky dokey breakfast! oh for matt paul and ozzie I cant pick me email up out here on my home email so my usa contact is stevestorms@vodafone.net have a great day you guys.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Steve, same thinking here, will jaunt east to the I35 In Kansas and then drop South into Oklahoma and will probably jaunt along the I44 Coridoor towards Missouri and Arkansas. May even meet up this time.

Regards

Paul Matt Peter and Ozzie

[Roger J Smith]

1600z 9 May

Red alert, hope the chasers get this breaking info ...

Today's set-up has modified due to the development of a wave on the cold front in northeast Texas after 18z. Surface obs show that hot, humid air is pooling across southeast OK and most of eastern TX this morning (it's now 1100 CDT). For example, dew point at Ardmore OK past hour was already 24 C.

12h progs show wave developing near DFW and moving east-north-east to trigger the major outbreak expected tomorrow. I think this may result in a tornadic outbreak today in areas just east of DFW, possibly around Longview to Texarkana. At this time, some heavy to severe storms already firing in s MO and n AR but these are likely to be beyond the storm chasers' reach, would suggest dropping south more than east through eastern OK to await developments in a location like McAlester or Fort Smith.

I will post an update on development including the best radar around 18z.

As for tomorrow, the progs now indicate massive potential in the area of Nashville TN to Birmingham AL, with a rapidly deepening low across IL and MI creating strong cold fronts; this outbreak is sure to produce major tornadic activity and will last through Wednesday night into Thursday in the Carolinas if you want to keep tracking severe storms that far east. Looks like a 30-40 (F) temperature drop setting up behind these fronts, from the mid 80s to the high 40s. Would not be surprised if there is a rash of destructive storms tomorrow afternoon and evening across KY, TN, n AL-MS. But as for today, best chase conditions may eventually develop in northeast Texas or extreme southeast OK into s.w. AR and n.w. LA. Update at 18z

[wolves78]

hiya roger is that set up due to this i was reading earlier?

Major Spring Storm coming to Ontario

Monday, May 08, 2006

All the pieces are now coming together for a major spring storm across Ontario later this week......

Piece 1. Pacific energy diving southeast into the southern U.S. plains

by Tuesday night.

Piece 2. Western Canada energy diving southeast into the northern U.S. plains by Wednesday.

Piece 3. A building, block of high pressure Wednesday stretching from Labrador to Greenland.

What does all of this mean?

The two pieces of energy will come together later Wednesday and develop a storm over the Ohio Valley. The storm will rapidly intensify Wednesday night. The block farther to the northeast will slow the forward speed of the storm, then cause it to stall across the Great Lakes region through Friday.

The result: A widespread, beneficial rainfall for a large part of Ontario. The heaviest rain will be from Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Lighter, more intermittent rain then Thursday night and into Friday.

Thunderstorms? Certainly a possibility across southwestern Ontario Wednesday evening then again Thursday afternoon. I think the severe storms will remain down across Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Cloud cover and a southeasterly wind flow will likely limit the amount of instability for severe weather across southwestern Ontario.

[Roger J Smith]

1815z 9 May

The situation continues to appear volatile for later today in northeast TX as the hot, humid air continues to pool from DFW east. Currently temp/dew point readings in the DFW area are around 32/25. This hot,humid air is at the surface in southeast OK and over-running slightly cooler air around Tulsa.

No development in this zone yet, the storms continue to fire further east in n/c AR. However, I think that the dynamics appear very good for tornadic storm development between Dallas and Longview TX around 21z to 00z. Update around 21z.

[Anvil Crawler]

Hi Roger, we are currently just west of Mcalister, 100% risk of Severe Storm Potential today with Explosive Storms capable of producing Tornadoes close to the Outflow and Low Pressure Boundary today, we look like we will be heading east to Tennessee tomorrow as this cannot be passed up.

NetWeather Team

[Paul Sherman]

HI Guys, currently at a Comfort Inn sitting tight, amazing humidity here, just got out of the car and got wet in seconds. Giant Hail forecasted <_< :blink:

Paul Sherman

[Gorky]

Whatever happens today, don't put yourself too far from tomorrows action. Looks like it will be a very significant event with the best tornado potential of your trip to date. Already a moderate risk, and I wouldn't be completely surprised if Tor threat warrants a high risk. That will be very dependant on tonights action however

[SnowJoke]

HI Guys, currently at a Comfort Inn sitting tight, amazing humidity here, just got out of the car and got wet in seconds. Giant Hail forecasted :blink: :lol:

Paul Sherman

Giant Hail. Well there goes the deposit on the rental cars. <_<

Just tell them you were hijacked by a gang of volatile midgets armed with tack hammers!!! LMAO :lol:

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Giant Hail. Well there goes the deposit on the rental cars. <_<

:blink: I've been thinking that for a while. A bet theres a few dints by the time the cars returned.

Sounds like you guys are having a good day over there. Theres something about the sound and smell of torrential rain thats quite pleasing :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

2120z 9 May

Cap remains in place but OKC and DFW forecast offices are both mentioning imminent break-down in about an hour, so rapid development could proceed from about OKC south to FTW about 23z, with resulting cells moving east at about 20-30 knots through s.e. OK and n.e. TX before sunset, although most severe phase may come around sunset or during darkness tonight. As Gorky was saying, whatever happens, would strongly advise a move overnight or at least at very early hour towards tomorrow's max risk zone which I would estimate 50-100 miles south of Nashville TN towards Huntsville AL.

Radars in OK and TX are all corrupted by ground clutter at the moment, will post one when cells develop.

[wolves78]

:blink: I've been thinking that for a while. A bet theres a few dints by the time the cars returned.

Sounds like you guys are having a good day over there. Theres something about the sound and smell of torrential rain thats quite pleasing

WHAT YOU TALKIN BOUT WILLIS :lol: :lol: <_<

[Gorky]

I see a few towers going up on satellite and a few cells forming on the OKC radar now. So far it seems to be mainly to the East of the metro.

[wolves78]

looks as thought the team are in for a decent night but hope you lot dont travel to far out the way of tommorows threat as its looking better for you wednesday evening for you lot <_<

[mac]

Looking good if you are near this!

Warning Bulletin

WFUS54 KTSA 092333

TORTSA

OKC135-100015-

/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0051.060509T2333Z-060510T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

633 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A

POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION 10

MILES NORTHWEST OF VIAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS IS A

DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...VIAN...MARBLE

CITY...BRUSHY AND SALLISAW.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO

UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE

LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

[mac]

This is worth seeing - video of a direct tornado hit!

Probably has been posted here before on NW but is new to me.

Note: Fairly large files so best viewed using broadband.

http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/050...multimedia.html

[Roger J Smith]

Just got back in, and found a tornado warning for McAlester OK. Here's the current radar:

<< http://www.weatherimages.org/radar/ktlx.shtml >>

This will update but as of 0020z the word "McAlester" has disappeared behind the middle of the three severe cells on the radar image. These appear to be moving east at about 30-40 knots.

I assume the NW team are still in the area chasing the cell. Will post any public damage reports.

[essexchase]

Some good coverage on NBC at the moment.

Cars dented by 3" hail in North Texas and a recent tornado in Childress.

Not long before Oklahoma gets some action

[Paul Sherman]

Quite literally an incredible chase day today. Our Position in Seminole had the very first severe cell of the day that popped overhead. Watched this cell with about 10 chase cars in a car park before it was apparant that a developing Supercell near Coalgate would be our play, only problem was just one road south and by the time we got to Coalgate we had to take cover from large hail, took refuge under a carport and then the Tornado Sirens were wailing for about 30 minutes, again have incredible video which i will post when i get a chance of this, a clearing to our south and looking above a church rapid rotation at about 6pm, SPC Has a report of a Tornado at that time as well, we blasted south to Atica and core punched the cell which had Mesos on the road in front of us, again took refuge at about 7pm under a Carport and then had amazing circulation and what looked like a massive white funnel cross the road in front of us, again SPC Have this reported as a Touchdown, today has been at times plain stupid of us to core punch, in the Bears Cage many times with ear splitting thunder and Tornados too close for comfort, but being within the circulation looking out and not looking in meant pictures hard to come by, currently at Durrant with a Supercell to our South doing damage to houses as it tracks east. Tomorrow looks like a very big day and we are tracking 350 miles to our east to play with Alabama.

Paul Sherman

[Roger J Smith]

10 May 0430z

Still some life left in the severe cells, including some well out to the west of Wichita Falls at this time. Assuming you may be planning a night drive, watch out for continuous lightning at some point as a signal of advancing tornadic cells.

Would suggest Tuscaloosa AL as a staging point as supercell potential appears highest across n.e. MS, n half AL, and central TN into s KY. It's not quite the "perfect storm" set-up (00z prog run backs off by 5-10% but that's not a big change). However, I am sure it is borderline moderate to high risk by SPC standards, meaning a widespread severe tornado outbreak.

Development should be fairly early compared to most days so far, for one thing, you are almost one time zone east by Alabama, but also, with Gulf moisture totally involved and frontal dynamics much stronger, development cycles begin earlier. Could be quite active as early as 15-17z (10 a.m. to noon CDT) although peak will come around evening. Still looks like an overnight tornadic onslaught for AL, GA, e TN, into Carolinas for Thursday.

Will post an update with analysis from 12z prog package at about 1500z.

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for that Roger, totally forgot about the 1 hour Timeshift We have calculated a 4 hour drive, so will leave Durant far South-East Oklahoma at about 8am to be in the Moderate Risk area by about noon.

Paul Sherman

[stevestorms]

Great new guys glad you had a good day we got caught on the north side and tried to run through the cells to the other side but were beaten back by zero visibilty and hail also taking cover where we could got some nice lightning to watch on the back of the super cell but tad disapointing for us today but hey! thats storm chasing :-) we are now back in Norman where we are going to have a rest day tomorrow good luck in the deep south you guys, stay safe. cheers Steve and the chaps