TD2 in EPAC

[wolves78]

Bud

lots of convection looks like building from aletta

aletta seems to have fueld this stom from the nothern edge but lots of convection ATM

[pottyprof]

interesting post wolves.. so thats 2 within a week.. looking good for the prospects for this year..

just hope the atlantic season is a little more merciful this year..

[wolves78]

dunno about the merciful part though as i think the ring of fire in the atlantic will play a part in activity this year SST'S look to support this aswell some decent activity in the east atlantic ATM

just hope 4 the US its not like last serason but i fear records will fall again this season

[pottyprof]

dunno about the merciful part though as i think the ring of fire in the atlantic will play a part in activity this year SST'S look to support this aswell some decent activity in the east atlantic ATM

just hope 4 the US its not like last serason but i fear records will fall again this season

we have a ring of fire in the atlantic?? :o ah well.. it was bound to happen sooner or later... is this the disneyland version?? sets out of florida and finishes in our local curry shop?? :lol: :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

just a quick one how was hawayi formed ?

from the east atlantic volcanic activity?

pottyprof read up a little :lol:

the atlantic is bigger than just the UK side mate dont forget how the other side what with warmer waters was created

Now I'm gettin' confused..........as my education was focussed around geology I ought to know my Atlantic and the last I checked we had one spreading centre and NO subduction zones. All the vulcanicity occurs down the 'spreading centre' (Iceland, Canaries, Azores) and the same with the earthquakes. To the west we have Greenland/The Americas (no activity on their coastal fringes) and to the east we have NW Europe and Africa ( no activity on their coastal fringes) so I seem to be missing this 'East Atlantic activity' I'm hoping you are confused and we are talking the Pacific as that would fit the M.O.

So far as the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season is concerned I fear that America will again bear the brunt of some brutal storms (and 'Yes' records will fall again) and we are in for more 'retirements' in the name stakes (which is always bad). The recent study into the 'mythical cycles' we used to believe in means we must now just look to the tropical sea temps as the 'force' behind the storms and that anomaly goes up and up and up so the frequency and ferrocity of storms will do likewise (which makes a lot more 'cause and effect' sense to me!!!).

[crimsone]

just a quick one how was hawayi formed ?

from the east atlantic volcanic activity?

Erm, methinks you've placed Hawaii on the wrong side of the US. Hawaii is a group of EPAC islands.

we have enough happening in the east atlantic volcanic activity

You must be expecting some SERIOUS convection if you're calling the creation of African tropical waves volcanic! :lol:

If the air is rising that fast, I would certainly recommend that people in the Cape Verde Islands stop flying their kites IMMEDIATELY, lest they be sucked up by the killer explosive convection 100's of feet into the air!

To my knowledge, there are very few East Atlantic active volcanoes, and only one or two in the West Atlantic, of which only one is in the hurricane/tropical zone (Montserrat), which has already erupted a month or two back.

Edit Just to support GW's statement about "mythical cycles" and increasing TS formation, While there is indeed a cycle of high and low periods of activity, there also appears to be a net gain in both TS frequency and hurricane intensity....

Source (and full article) - http://www.icr.org/index.php?module=articl...on=view&ID=2589

Edited June 1, 2006 by crimsone

[wolves78]

crmsone & grey-wolf

yep i got confused had a few lastnight :lol: i moved the world around in one night :blush:

anyway back to what could be TS BUD

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG

seems to be bubbling away nicely could this be number 2 on the way?

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...

CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR

NORTHWEST.

[crimsone]

From that sat image, I'd say perhaps a small TD. If there's a loop that shows anything more then I might have a different opinion.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Edit Just to support GW's statement about "mythical cycles" and increasing TS formation, While there is indeed a cycle of high and low periods of activity, there also appears to be a net gain in both TS frequency and hurricane intensity....

Source (and full article) - http://www.icr.org/index.php?module=articl...on=view&ID=2589

Isn't the problem with that the skewing effect of technology? They didn't use to count hurricanes that grew in the big waters and never hit shore.

I suspect there isn't yet enough data available to draw adequate conclusions and any statement either way is as much guess as fact.

[crimsone]

Yet there's enough data for so many "experts" to claim that it's all down to a 30 year cycle? How does that account for to correlation from, say, 1940 onwards?

[pottyprof]

sorry wolves for taking the rise mate.. just had to be done..

as for what you say there has to be some effect.. but dont expect the answers to be welcoming.. there are a lot of people on here that quote boils law but yet they dont see the effect of a huge tidal wave stiring up the atmosphere..

anyway.. yes i belive the activity in the pacific will have an effect on the sea temps.. and therefore the up and comming storm season.. as 'minimal' as they are (or so some think) they all add to the big picture..

[P.K.]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006

800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW

DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND

ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY

INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS

ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD

BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED

WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL

MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS

EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A

WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE

DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD

NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND

NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS

ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE.

BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY

THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST

OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT

24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT

36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT

48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT

[kold weather]

Just to note what AF said Crimsone, there wasn't any way of finding TS systems unless ships or land got hit by them, no doubt storms that were out in the east Atlantic were dismissed and all storms like Epsilon, Delta and Zeta would all have been dismissed as extra-tropical systems.

Well there is some decent deep convection with TD2-E presently with some impressive cloud tops indicating the strong convection. It's actually got a very good structure to it with impressive cyclonic curveature according to the latest satilite.

Still any further strengthening shall be severely limited soon by the upcoming land known as Mexico. It's in a fairly slack flow presently so its still got a good 24-36hrs to gain a little more strength and while 35mph seems a likely landfall strength, i wouldn't rule out it reaching 40mph and gaining tropical storm strength just but its got very little time and presently I think maybe just a little too little time, but it may be close.

Seems like the main threat is not so much the winds, as they will probably only be about 20-25mph inland and even by the coasts probably only about 30-40mph. More of a threat will be the heavy rains that will fall as there is no doubt impressive convection present looking at cloud tops and IR imagery, could be that mudslides and heavy rains which cause flash flooding may well be a problem.

[wolves78]

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006

200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A

LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS

OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE

BANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER-

LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND

A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.

THEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE

FORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS

BEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON

THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION

CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE

RAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE

MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11

INCHES OF RAIN.

GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER

REMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE

DEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF

DISSIPATING OVER LAND.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecasted to JUST make tropical storm status then.

[crimsone]

Oh dear. The city itself will probably cope as well as any other city, but lets just hope the inevitable mudslides and flooding outside of the city aren't too severe.

[Somerset Squall]

Oh dear. The city itself will probably cope as well as any other city, but lets just hope the inevitable mudslides and flooding outside of the city aren't too severe.

Indeed, 11 inches of rain already in Acapulco. If the system does indeed meander along the coast (which is a possibility) and therefore has a longer life, the flooding could be catastrophic.

Edited June 3, 2006 by AtmosFear

[kold weather]

Yep TD-2 is going to give some massive amounty of flooding. Since yesterday the system has failed to get any better organised and is still a fair mess. Convection seems to be much less widespread then yesterday and also much weaker, cloud tops in the strongest lump of convection is still pretty cold but its not as strong as it was yesterday, as land interaction is now starting to slowly weakening the convection and warming the cloud tops.

Despite the system apprently stalling according to the NHC, I do not think there will be any more strengthening becasue it sems the MLC (mid-level center) seems to be already over land on the NE side of the system. The detachement of the two systems usually signals the end of the systems life and while the LLC may stay off-land because its stalled, I should think that it should slowly wane away as the convection dies off as well like its doing presently.

Winds should gust to about 35mph near the coasts, with sustained winds probably at 30mph, maybe getting clsoe to 35mph in the strongest areas of convection. As was said though before, the wind never was going to be the worst of this system. The rain seems to be stil lfalling and now the system has stalled just offshore the convection probably won't be going anywhere fast so the system may well just rain itslef out over the area of land its close to right now so therefore widespread amounts of 10-30 inches are possible, though thankfully as I said before convection is presently on the wane but still flash flooding may well be a problem.

[wolves78]

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30

MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH... AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION

COULD MOVE INLAND BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO LATER

THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE

SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES