Super Typhoon Ioke

[Paranoid]

Haven't seen this mentioned here, so here's the latest advisory for this Central Pacific hurricane.

000

WTPA32 PHFO 221652

TCPCP2

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 11

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006

700 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 815 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...15.6 N...168.8 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER CRAIG

Edited August 22, 2006 by Paranoid

[Somerset Squall]

Hurricane Ioke has now weakened to a category 2 hurricane from a category 4. What caused this sudden weakening?

[Paranoid]

Don't know. The advisory said there would be little change in strength. The current advisory doesn't say anything either.

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006

1100 AM HST TUE AUG 22 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 850 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...OAHU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IOKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...16.2 N...169.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BROWNING

[Paranoid]

Sorry to double post. Regardless of the weakening, GFDL seems to bring this system back up to Major hurricane status, which makes me think the weakening was due to an Eyewall replacement cycle. In fact, GDFL bring this system near or to Category 5 strength. 142kts at flight level and pressure at 927mbar, certianly looks to be Category 5 or very strong Category 4. Also, i expect this will become Typhoon Ioke if it continues on its present track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...;hour=Animation

EDIT: You'll have to forward it to 20.

Edited August 23, 2006 by Paranoid

[Paranoid]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006

1100 PM HST WED AUG 23 2006

...IOKE RESTRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...AND ABOUT 955 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...18.6 N...172.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hurricane Ioke is ploughing its way through the C Pacific heading towards the 180W line! What's the record for the longest time a TC has had sustained winds of hurricane strength? Ioke seems never ending at the moment. Here's the latest from CPHC:

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 21

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006

500 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006

...MAJOR HURRICANE IOKE REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 SYSTEM FAR WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 173.7 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1035 MILES WEST OF HONOLULU.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IOKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...19.1 N...173.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BURKE/KODAMA

The image below is great, shows both Ioke and Ileana:

[Paranoid]

Getting stronger. Now the first ever named Central Pacific Category 5.

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 22

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006

1100 PM HST THU AUG 24 2006

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.5 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WEST SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...19.2 N...174.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER DONALDSON

[kold weather]

Indeed Ioke is probably the strongest system to ever form in the central Pacific, it does look very impressive right now and by far the most impressive tropical cyclone this year so far, very impressive, tohugh it shouldn't get much stronger as its probably peaked pretty close to its lowest MPI and as the discussion noted ther eis just 1.1MS of shear over Ioke, thats amazingly low and is why Ioke has got such a perfect look to it right now, much akin to hurricane Rita last year actually.

Amazing system this one is and very long lasting, I'm gonig to be very intreste dto see its eventual ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) will turn out to be, could well be very high indeed considering its heading into the favorable WPAC where it'll become super Typhoon Ioke.

Edited August 25, 2006 by kold weather

[parmenides3]

Should still last 4-5 days nmore, according to NOAA, if not so strong. Due to cross 180 in about 60 hours. Beautiful shot:

P

[Paranoid]

GFDL brings this storm down to 899mbar and maximum flight level winds of 162kts. If these winds were at surface level then they'd be rounded up to 190mph. Somehow this storm is going to seem a lot weaker after the windspeed is switched to 10 minute sustained. This storm is also growing larger. By the end of the GFDL run it's at least twice it's current size.

Edited August 25, 2006 by Paranoid

[iain123]

Hi don’t usually post here only when big storms are on the go, I just thought id try and create a bit more interest for this thing, I mean it’s a fully fledged super typhoon it looks like a welt on the side of the earth, the fish out there most be getting the living **** beat out of them.

and there’s 5 times more posts on an Atlantic tropical storm, im defiantly sensing some Atlantic prejudice.

Here’s some overnight development in case you missed it

At 20.00 on sat 26 August

and

At 3.00am on the 27th

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Iain.

Ioke will surely break quite a few records...how about longest time sustaining cat4/5 winds...not sure what the record is. This system is truly a beast and really the "perfect storm" - sorry to use the cliche but it really is!!! :lol:

Just read this on Central Pacific Hurricane Centre website:

IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.

Edited August 27, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[parmenides3]

This system is still holding its energy and is now predicted to hit Wake Island head on. Wake is a high-security US Military site, so don't expect too much information, but it is basically a small, low lying atoll with a large airport and several thousand personnel. With waves estimated at 48 feet and winds in the 130-170kmh range, severe damage is to be expected.

Meanwhile, a new TC warning has been published for the East Pacific, off the Mexican Coast. If this develops, someone may want to start a new strand.

Satellite images of Ioke are spectacular; I recommend a look at the JTWC multi-spectral images.

P

[Gray-Wolf]

Will it keep them awake in Wake ? what wake will they wake to in Wake?...........I'll go back to the Atlantic shall I?

[parmenides3]

Most recent JTWC image: Atlanteans eat your hearts out.

[parmenides3]

Done some further checking on Wake Island.

According to the update last week in the CIA worldbook, population at the moment is about 200 non-military personnel. Maximum elevation above sea level is 7 metres.

ST Ioke has 46 foot waves associated with it. It's still heading for the Island, winds are still at the top end of the scale ; 135-165 kmh.

I have not yet found comment on the situation, even in the American press. I hope the island will have been evacuated; there may not be much of it left in three days time.

P

[Louby]

I can not find much on the predicted path of Ioke, has anyone got any links?

[parmenides3]

I can not find much on the predicted path of Ioke, has anyone got any links? :lol:

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

P

[flagpole]

Keep thinking the title of this thread is 'super typhoon joke' d'oh

[Louby]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

P

Thanks P :lol:

Keep thinking the title of this thread is 'super typhoon joke' d'oh

[parmenides3]

Keep thinking the title of this thread is 'super typhoon joke' d'oh

:lol:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wake Island certainly looks like it's in for a severe hammering...hope they got the people out of there!

Here's the latest on Ioke from JMA:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 29 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 290600UTC 16.2N 173.4E GOOD

MOVE W 08KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 300600UTC 17.5N 170.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

48HF 310600UTC 19.3N 167.9E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

72HF 010600UTC 21.4N 164.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

[parmenides3]

Keep up, TH ! P

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's an article which Geoff Mackley (Geoff's website) found. It concerns Ioke and Wake Island's preparations:

Stars and Stripes - Typhoon Ioke and Wake Island

Edited August 29, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[parmenides3]

Here's an article which Geoff Mackley (Geoff's website) found. It concerns Ioke and Wake Island's preparations:

Stars and Stripes - Typhoon Ioke and Wake Island

Excellent find! Ta. P