Super Typhoon Ioke

[Typhoon Hunter]

Excellent find! Ta. P

The latest JTWC forecast track has Ioke passing even closer to Wake than that article suggests. At the moment it's forecast to pass 21 miles to the north. Wake could be blown off the map!

[parmenides3]

The latest JTWC forecast track has Ioke passing even closer to Wake than that article suggests. At the moment it's forecast to pass 21 miles to the north. Wake could be blown off the map!

This is what has been worrying me, too. And yet everyone is fixated on 'Ernesto', which is likely to cause some heavy rain in Miami, while here, we're looking at, plausibly, an entire island (with a noble history) being wiped out.

P

[Louby]

The latest JTWC forecast track has Ioke passing even closer to Wake than that article suggests. At the moment it's forecast to pass 21 miles to the north. Wake could be blown off the map!

Why are they not evacuating the Island. as the article states, their bunkers are built to withstand Cat 4 storm, and this being a Cat 5, surely they should get out whilst they can

[Hendy]

Why are they not evacuating the Island. as the article states, their bunkers are built to withstand Cat 4 storm, and this being a Cat 5, surely they should get out whilst they can

Looks like they are. Link

Edited August 29, 2006 by Hendy

[Louby]

Looks like they are. Link

Thank god for that!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for posting that link Hendy....gonna be interesting to see reports when people return to the island!

[parmenides3]

Thanks for posting that link Hendy....gonna be interesting to see reports when people return to the island!

Island? What island?

Edited August 29, 2006 by parmenides3

[SnowBear]

Geographic coordinates: 19°17′N 166°36′E

Area (land): 2.5 mi² (6.5 km²)

Coastline: 12.0 mi (19.3 km)

Maritime claims

exclusive economic zone: 200 nm (370.4 km)

territorial sea: 12 nm (22.2 km)

Elevation extremes:

lowest point: Pacific Ocean, 0 feet (0 meters)

highest point: unnamed location, 20 feet (6 m)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wake_Island

Ioke is packing 50' waves, which will probably surge higher over the atoll. Submerged pretty much without doubt I think.

[BrickFielder]

JMA Ioke position Forecast

GFS suggests it will almost make it to Japan. Low levels of upper level winds should prevent the top of the storm being sheared out and killing the storm. It looks as if it only starts to die when it reaches cooler water. Very impressive.

[parmenides3]

This system is astonishing! Can anyone here remember a hurricane/typhoon of this strength lasting this long - perhaps up to two weeks? Hawaii a couple of days ago had Ioke as the fifth most powerful C-Pac on record, with the third lowest pressure (921mb), and the strongest for at least ten years. It was said in an earlier post; what records is this beast going to break?

P

[SnowBear]

I think according to Honalulu NWS it has unofficially taken the lowest pressure record...

NOHW40 PHFO 251958

PNSHFO

HIZ001>028-260600-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

1000 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE IOKE BECOMES FIFTH CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN CENTRAL

PACIFIC AND UNOFFICIALLY HOLD THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD

IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY

WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY

5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE

SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL

PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA

MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE

PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC.

IT MUST BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS IN THE CENTRAL

PACIFIC BEFORE THE EARLY 1960S ARE INCOMPLETE.

THE TOP STRONGEST STORMS ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE

1. HURRICANE PATSY - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - SEPTEMBER 1959

2. HURRICANE JOHN - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - AUGUST 1994

3. HURRICANE EMILIA- CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994

4. HURRICANE GILMA - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994

5. HURRICANE IOKE - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - AUGUST 2006

6. HURRICANE RICK - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1985

7. HURRICANE INIKI - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1992

8. HURRICANE FABIO - CATEGORY 4 - 120KT/140MPH - AUGUST 1988

AT THE SAME TIME...THE ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE

ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 27.20 INCHES.

WITH GILMA AND JOHN THERE WAS AIR FORCE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT THAT

MEASURED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. GILMA BOTTOMED OUT AT 926MB OR 27.35

INCHES AND JOHN REACHED 929MB OR 27.43 INCHES. HURRICANE INIKI WAS

AT 938MB OR 27.70 INCHES AT ITS PEAK.

$$

NASH

[SnowBear]

JTWC now plotting a direct hit with 130knt winds..

[Rustynailer]

JTWC now plotting a direct hit with 130knt winds..

Wake Island is only about 5ft asl i think

[Louby]

for those who are interested there is a programme on channel 5 at 8Pm about super typhoons. I have posted in here purely because anyone who would be interested in it would be in this thread

[SnowBear]

Wake Island is only about 5ft asl i think

Highest point is 20', (average level is much lower) with Ioke spinning 50' waves, plus the storm surge over the atoll...its gonna do untold damage, not only to the man made structures, but to the island itself as its made of coral, and even more so if the track is slightly to the south of the island and the NE quadrant hits the island.

[Rustynailer]

Thanks SB, at 20ft Wake is low enough, to be overun with waves at 50ft sounds like they will be busey evacuating everyone. I suppose there quite a few people there, there is an arifield.

[Coopsy]

What conditions prevailed in 1994 in order for 3 of the strongest storms ever to form in the space of a month?

[parmenides3]

What conditions prevailed in 1994 in order for 3 of the strongest storms ever to form in the space of a month?

El Nino, I believe.

:lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

Pah Pacifico's, easy to build a big storm when it's all hot water and no bloody mountains/shear.................. sour grape Atlantean signing off. (poor island......should we have a Wake? :lol: )

[SnowBear]

As far as I am aware from a link in a post earlier on the thread, all personnel were evacuated from Wake Atoll earlier today so any damage for humans will hopefully be only material. The atoll itself and the coral, is another matter, and I think the shape of Wake could be quite a bit different if Ioke stays on the current track.

[flagpole]

When is Ioke due to pass Wake Island?

[P.K.]

In about 48 hours time. Track

Still at 100kts, I really need to go back through the best track to see when a storm stayed so strong for so long.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 291800UTC 16.5N 171.9E GOOD

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

50KT 80NM

30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF 301800UTC 17.9N 169.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

48HF 311800UTC 19.7N 166.0E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

72HF 011800UTC 21.6N 161.3E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

[Typhoon Hunter]

Supertyphoon Ioke has intensified back into a cat 5 monster. It just refuses to weaken!

Here's the latest JMA data (10 min windspeeds):

Issued at 09:00 UTC 30 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 300900UTC 17.3N 170.2E GOOD

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

50KT 100NM

30KT 230NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 310900UTC 19.0N 167.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

45HF 010600UTC 20.1N 163.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

69HF 020600UTC 21.8N 158.3E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

I can't see there much to be going back to in Wake. The latest JTWC forecast has Ioke passing 1 mile from Wake with winds 135kts gusting to 165kts!!

P.K that would be really interesting to see how this compares to previous storms. Must be a contender for longest period of cat4/5 winds!?!

[summer blizzard]

Are there any live cams on Wake???????

[Typhoon Hunter]

I doubt it since it's a US military base. If there are any they won't be around for much longer!