Autumn And Winter

[Snowly does it]

Until we see a return to below 10*C annual CETs we will never see a truly cold winter. Last winter came close to delivering something special, but still no cigar, due to persistent shortwvae features in the Greenland area which prevented high pressure building far enough north at a time when Europe became very cold.

Isn't that chicken and the egg though? When we get a very cold winter we will likely see a CET of under 10?

To be fair to SB here, he is using his forecast system which at present suggests what he suggests, thats not hopecasting, it is forecasting based on what he uses. It will either be right or wrong, but doomongery and 'cannots' are just as much (anti)hopecasting as guesses and wishes.

I would be very surprised to see a sub 2 month personally but its not out of the question, just very rare and getting rarer.

[beng]

To predict now a severe February of a 1.2 CET is utterly ridiculus; going by the weather patterns and trends of recent years this would be almost impossible, to get the correct synoptics for a sufficiently prolonged period of time in any winter month for such a low CET to occur. We have not even seen a sub 3C month for ten years let alone a sub 2C month. We have already broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 2C months; previous longest was 14 years 10 months (1902-1916), it is now at least 15 years 10 months to 16 years and counting. On a more modest point of winter cold we have also broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 3C months (9 years 11 months now and counting).

Not sure I totally agree - the period from Mid Feb to Mid March 2005 must have been quite close to this figure - it may not happen this winter and by the laws of probability alone you would bet against it (I sound like Dawlish now!) - but I don't think it's impossible.

Weather is chaotic and just because something hasn't happened for a long time - doesn't mean it won't happen again - or that a new cycle of snyoptics won't take over - quite out of the blue. Even in the Medievel warm period (lasting for a couple of hundred years) - there was still the occasional severe winter in the UK - out of the blue.

[Rollo]

As kw quite rightly said we did have one or two ice days here last february but they were anticyclonic foggy days with copious amounts of rime on the trees-I yearn for an ice day with frequent snow showers a la february 1979.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

A better forecast for August forecast with tempeatures in the vicinity of what i forecasted them to be

September:

10th-13th: Summer's last gasp

High pressure building to give mid-teens in the south before it slowly slips away. Pleasant for all but the west with cloud building all the time.

14th-18th: Autumn arrives

wet and windy spell with high winds in the north and west. heavy rain spreading from west to east before the low pressure system moves away.

19th-24th: Calmer

Calmer but remaining cooler. Sunshine and showers seems the general theme with longer spells of rain at times.

25th-30th: Mixed

Unsettled once again but shorter spells of rain allowing sunshine to appear every now and then.

Sorry for the lateness but my internet has only just began to work.

overall: Autumn has returned...

SNOW-MAN2006

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Autumn Forecast:

September: Autumn arrives on Queue

The title say's it all autumn will arrive on schedule for this year. A very unsettled spell for the middle of the month before things become slightly less unsettled for a time before we see another system moving in for the end of the month. C.E.T- 14

October- Will autumn make an early exit???

October i expect to begin unsettled with some very wet spells. Windy at times with sevre gales before the first week is out. As we head into the middle part of the month things quieten down as high pressure bcome re-established- meaning sunshine and pleasant by day but cold at night with persistant frosts. The end of the month continuing a more settled theme althougth i expect the last few days to see low pressure move in to leave a mark on october. current estimate temperature- 12

November- Winter will be present...

After an unsettled end to october i suspect the high pressure present in Ocotber will re-establish itself over the uk to give cold days with freezing nights with sub-zero temperatures. Come mid-month again we see unsettled weather but i suspect that colder weather will come into the equation to bring our first snow fall to many areas. This wont last long as the Atlantic stirs once more bringing unsettled weather to end november with. current estimate temperature- 6

Quick look into december and it's looking like a white Xmas may be on the cards as we see low pressure develop over Scandinavia and as it makes it way over to the atlantic it will drag some very cold Scandinavian air with it... something to keep an eye on...

Hope you have enjoyed my seasonal forecast

SNOW-MAN2006

[Dawlish]

Not sure I totally agree - the period from Mid Feb to Mid March 2005 must have been quite close to this figure - it may not happen this winter and by the laws of probability alone you would bet against it (I sound like Dawlish now!) - but I don't think it's impossible.

Weather is chaotic and just because something hasn't happened for a long time - doesn't mean it won't happen again - or that a new cycle of snyoptics won't take over - quite out of the blue. Even in the Medievel warm period (lasting for a couple of hundred years) - there was still the occasional severe winter in the UK - out of the blue.

Well said beng! It is never impossible for an event to happen that has happened before, just unlikely, if that event has not happened before with any regularity. The unlikelihood increases with a warming trend. I do love it how 4 years of slightly cooler Februaries suddenly becomes a cooling trend to take note of! Statistics throws up these quirks. Ignore them is the sensible way, until the trend acquires significance.

To be fair, though, Schorcher never said that there is a nil possibility of a 1.2C February and his comparison to there being similar odds of a 21C July, in GW UK would not be way off the mark, in my opinion. maybe a teensy bit of hyperbole for effect, but a memorable comparison, Schorcher!

The chances of such a cold February are remote. The same with any similarly cold month (although you would have a higher chance of being right, should anyone predict one winter month with a CET of 1.2C).

In present conditions, I'd offer 60/1 against February having a CET of 1.2C, or less and 20/1 against any of the coming 3 winter months having a CET of 1.2C, or less. Book open for the speculators.

I'd better start another odds thread to record these, as the last one appears to have been munched by the langoliers!

Paul

Paul

Autumn Forecast:

September: Autumn arrives on Queue

The title say's it all autumn will arrive on schedule for this year. A very unsettled spell for the middle of the month before things become slightly less unsettled for a time before we see another system moving in for the end of the month. C.E.T- 14

October- Will autumn make an early exit???

October i expect to begin unsettled with some very wet spells. Windy at times with sevre gales before the first week is out. As we head into the middle part of the month things quieten down as high pressure bcome re-established- meaning sunshine and pleasant by day but cold at night with persistant frosts. The end of the month continuing a more settled theme althougth i expect the last few days to see low pressure move in to leave a mark on october. current estimate temperature- 12

November- Winter will be present...

After an unsettled end to october i suspect the high pressure present in Ocotber will re-establish itself over the uk to give cold days with freezing nights with sub-zero temperatures. Come mid-month again we see unsettled weather but i suspect that colder weather will come into the equation to bring our first snow fall to many areas. This wont last long as the Atlantic stirs once more bringing unsettled weather to end november with. current estimate temperature- 6

Quick look into december and it's looking like a white Xmas may be on the cards as we see low pressure develop over Scandinavia and as it makes it way over to the atlantic it will drag some very cold Scandinavian air with it... something to keep an eye on...

Hope you have enjoyed my seasonal forecast

SNOW-MAN2006

HI SNOW-MAN,

So, it is looking like a White Christmas is on the cards eh? At this stage, I'll offer 8/1 snow on the Met Office roof on Christmas Day. Fancy backing your forecast? Same odds for anyome else! Book open.

Paul

[Snowly does it]

So, it is looking like a White Christmas is on the cards eh? At this stage, I'll offer 8/1 snow on the Met Office roof on Christmas Day. Fancy backing your forecast? Same odds for anyome else! Book open.

Paul

8/1 eh Paul? I like the sound of that statistically, one virtual pint to 8 virtual glasses of dry white?

What odds can I have on a sub 6 November and a sub 3 winter month?

Edited September 10, 2006 by snowmaiden

[Dawlish]

8/1 eh Paul? I like the sound of that statistically, one virtual pint to 8 virtual glasses of dry white?

Mais oui, ma cherie! Vous pouvez choisir votre tipple! Un botteille de Chardonnez et plusiers slurps si vous allez gagner!! Je gagne un seul pint de Speckled 'en si vous perdez! C'est un pari?

Paul

[Snowly does it]

Mais oui, ma cherie! Vous pouvez choisir votre tipple! Un botteille de Chardonnez et plusiers slurps si vous allez gagner!! Je gagne un seul pint de Speckled 'en si vous perdez! C'est un pari?

Paul

Bien sur! Pour moi, c'est seulment les vins de Nouveau Zealand au Hawkes Bay s'il te plait!

Le Speckled 'en?? ooooh la la, le Franglais!

[Snowyowl9]

The chances of such a cold February are remote. The same with any similarly cold month (although you would have a higher chance of being right, should anyone predict one winter month with a CET of 1.2C).

In present conditions, I'd offer 60/1 against February having a CET of 1.2C, or less and 20/1 against any of the coming 3 winter months having a CET of 1.2C, or less. Book open for the speculators.

I'd better start another odds thread to record these, as the last one appears to have been munched by the langoliers!

Paul

1994 had a cet of 3.2c and 1996 was 2.5c so that`s a more possible figure we may get in feb but even so that will still be a drop of 1.3c since last feb,as for 1.2c that would be huge task considering we only had 1 month in the 80s that beat that.

1983 had a cet of 1.7c.

S9

[Dawlish]

Bien sur! Pour moi, c'est seulment les vins de Nouveau Zealand au Hawkes Bay s'il te plait!

Le Speckled 'en?? ooooh la la, le Franglais!

Oui, le Franglais est merveilluex! Et vous pouvez boire quels vins que vous aimez, avec votre recompense! Mais je demande encore - c'est un pari?

Paul

PS Now how did I guess you could speak French! 8/1 a white Christmas in London!

[Weather-history]

The second half of November 2005 was notably cold, it was the coldest 2nd half of November since 1993 and only the second halves of November 1952 and 1993 were colder since at least World War II

[Snowly does it]

Oui, le Franglais est merveilluex! Et vous pouvez boire quels vins que vous aimez, avec votre recompense! Mais je demande encore - c'est un pari?

Paul

PS Now how did I guess you could speak French! 8/1 a white Christmas in London!

Oui, c'est un pari

j'adore le Francais et aussi la France!

Now what about my other bets, a sub 6 november and a sub 3 winter month? I wanna get really really wined up this winter!

[Dawlish]

Oui, c'est un pari

j'adore le Francais et aussi la France!

Now what about my other bets, a sub 6 november and a sub 3 winter month? I wanna get really really wined up this winter!

Pari taken! I'll think about the others!

Paul

PS 8/1 snow on the met office roof on Christmas day (a single, tiny flake would be all you need to win) is open to all!

[North-Easterly Blast]

I thought that the second half of November 1996 was cold with frequent northerlies and frosts and even some snow for some. The second half of November 1965 was also notably cold, so I wouldn't have thought that the second half of November 2005 was colder than this.

[mcweather]

Hi everybody thought I,d dip back into the forum to see if winter discussions are up and going. Great to see that things are already up and running. Some very interesting points already being made as to whether there will be perhaps one outstandingly cold winter month this time round. The snow lovers amongst us would very much hope so. Winter lover though I am I,m afraid I have to agree with the thought that a winter like 63 or 47 is probably beyond us now.

However the snow loving side of me is always buoyed up by the fact that the deepest and most disruptive snow I have encountered in my life came in February 1978 which had an England and Wales value of 2.1C and which although cold by recent standards is not yet unreachable.

In that particular month it was the middle two weeks that were extremely cold and snowy, the beginning and end were mild. In reality now I think that sort of spell is probabaly the best we can hope for and would certainly make for a memorable winter even if the rest of the time was indifferent. Id rather have a fornight of real winter stuff in the middle of a generally wet and windy winter, than weeks on end of the psuedo winter we endured earlier this year.

[The Enforcer]

Id rather have a fornight of real winter stuff in the middle of a generally wet and windy winter, than weeks on end of the psuedo winter we endured earlier this year.

That's all one could ask for.

Mais oui, ma cherie! Vous pouvez choisir votre tipple! Un botteille de Chardonnez et plusiers slurps si vous allez gagner!! Je gagne un seul pint de Speckled 'en si vous perdez! C'est un pari?

Paul

Can you tell me where that was historically brewed?

[Weather-history]

I thought that the second half of November 1996 was cold with frequent northerlies and frosts and even some snow for some. The second half of November 1965 was also notably cold, so I wouldn't have thought that the second half of November 2005 was colder than this.

From Philip Eden

"The first half of November was the warmest since 1994 (temperatures 2.0-2.5 degC above normal), while the second half was the coldest since 1993 (3.5-4.0 degC below normal)."

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0511.htm

[summer blizzard]

I believe that the CET for either the second half of November or the last ten days of November was 1.1C.

As for my prediction of the February CET being 1.2C, at this range, that is based entirely on pattern matching as is the January CET forecast, it is entirely posible that i may forecast an even colder February but on the other hand, i may forecast a mild February, my CET forecast based on pattern matching are usually within 1C of the teleconnections forecast figure, so a cold February is favoured in my forecasts.

Only the November forecast is verified.

[Snowyowl9]

The second half of November 2005 was notably cold, it was the coldest 2nd half of November since 1993 and only the second halves of November 1952 and 1993 were colder since at least World War II

That`s impressive these days just checked my temps and surprisingly it is colder than 1996 by 0.9c. for the last half of the month.

Hopefully a start of a trend as recent novembers have been very disappointing,besides the last 2 of course 2004 has bucked the trend for novembers.

Edit:as 1993 though no contest as for the last half I just got 0.6c. for the last half daytime max

Edited September 10, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[summer blizzard]

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/i...s/tele_index.nh

The data for August is out and backs up Phillip Edens notions of a very northerly August, with a very negative PNA and NAO, coupled with an inversly corelated very positive SCA.

As the data is out for the summer, i though that i would find anologues for the NAO, to see if anologues back up the Met Office positive NAO senario this winter...

1969 is the only anologue for the NAO, with a neurtal to positive NAO in both June and July (0>1) followed by a negative NAO during August (-1>-2) however the winter that followed featured a December and January very close to what i am currently predicting with a sub 3C February, the winter CET was 3.3C and featured a neutral to negative NAO.

[Weather-history]

I believe that the CET for either the second half of November or the last ten days of November was 1.1C.

The second half of November 2005 was 1.6C according to Philip

The irony is the coldest sustained weather came just before and after the meteorological winter months, if you add the second half of November 2005 with the first half of March 2006 then that 30 day period averaged 2.25C (3.65C below the 1971-2000 average)

Edited September 10, 2006 by Mr_Data

[The Enforcer]

As for my prediction of the February CET being 1.2C

Even if you are right, I reckon the CET will be set at that level by a month of temperature inversions, like we had for a short time last January or by extremely low night time temperatures and it will still end up largely snowless.

[acrossthechannel]

That's all one could ask for.

Can you tell me where that was historically brewed?

Don't you mean une bouteille?

[Dawlish]

Don't you mean une bouteille?

Oui, naturellement!

Gawd, its tough enough writing half-decent English; don't expect perfection in French for goodness sake!!

Paul