Autumn And Winter

[Coopsy]

..and the 2 months with the highest June CET have the lowest December CET, very interesting that

[Paul]

Almost guarantees an ultra mild december now

[lesta_snow]

lol hopefully its below average like the other decembers which has a june above 16c

[North-Easterly Blast]

Mr Data; Kevin Bradshaw;

Where did you find the statistic that the first half of October 1974 was 0.5*C colder than the second half of December 1974? I do not know any website that tells you that information, only the monthly CET as a whole. That is ironic - the winter 74-75 was a big let down after such a cold autumn, especially during December and January.

[Anti-Mild]

lol hopefully its below average like the other decembers which has a june above 16c

Only thing is, this June was only 15.9c !

[acbrixton]

Yes, Autumn 74 was full of ideal winter synoptics for cold fans like this :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119741007.gif

Whilst the winter that followed was full of 'hello Mr Bartlett' :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119741225.gif

The statistics regarding June and the subsequent December are quite interesting. The tabloids will possibly pick up on it when they fancy their first 'Britain set to freeze' story.

I remember it well: at boarding school in Somerset the rule was no central heating of any type until after half-term. October was cold with frost and "wintry showers": not pleasant. Even late September was cold (and wet): I can recall a maxima in Surrey (forget where now) of only 8c in the second half of September 1974.

Regards

ACB

[conor123]

Im hoping this winter will be a decent one.

2004-2005 was an atrocious winter

2005-2006 was a much better winter though.

[ChrisHell]

I remember it well: at boarding school in Somerset the rule was no central heating of any type until after half-term. October was cold with frost and "wintry showers": not pleasant. Even late September was cold (and wet): I can recall a maxima in Surrey (forget where now) of only 8c in the second half of September 1974.

Regards

ACB

Fingers crossed that 2006/07 will be the one

[patrickshere]

Im hoping this winter will be a decent one.

2004-2005 was an atrocious winter

2005-2006 was a much better winter though.

I wouldn't say that. It all comes down to where you live. Here in Aylesbury 2004-2005 was 10* better than 2005-2006. Atleast we actually saw a measurable amount of snow on the floor in 2004-2005..

[kold weather]

Intresting to note the cold pool over the Artic still seems to be showing no signs of being destroyed yet despite the jet shwing signs of powering up, which is a good sign. I'd take a guess and thank a fairly quiet hurricane season for this as there has been little in the way of tropical heat moved north-wards. Despite this Florence may well stall the cooling for a week or so. Beyond that and the cold pooling looks like it continues with the PFJ tracking close to us, which should be good for the cold pool to grow.

[The Enforcer]

I wouldn't say that. It all comes down to where you live. Here in Aylesbury 2004-2005 was 10* better than 2005-2006. Atleast we actually saw a measurable amount of snow on the floor in 2004-2005..

The even larger teapot is a localised one at best.

[anvil]

In my humble and mainly ignored opinion the poster above has hit on a very valuable and worthwhile point. In the years before the 90's we could expect widespread falls of snow and regular freezing spells during winters where almost the entire country was affected.

Now we see irregular localised cold periods, with even more localised snowfall which does not last beyond a few days. Those wishing for a return to the pre nineties style winter need to wake up now and look at the evidence.

The earth is warming, the climate of Britain is at the forefront of that change and the required cold pooling doesn't occur close enough to these shores to give a chance of prolonged or widespread severe cold. People don't like to hear the term "even larger teapot" but they need to get used to it, as it is a reality.

No matter how much the hopecasters tell you that this year is the big one and the synoptic charts remind them of 1947 or 1963 it won't happen. Even with an identical synoptic pattern the source of the air is nowhere near as cold during a even larger teapot as it was before the rapid warming period of the previous 15 years.

If you want snow, move to canada or norway, but be quick because even they are noticing the change.

[shuggee]

However, the weather remains essentially synoptic driven and given the right set-up it is still possible for Britain to have an eighties style cold spell, and I believe it will this winter.

Have you been drinking Ian?

[The Enforcer]

I might be generalising here, but even in this poorest of poor locations for snow - there was on average a 50:50 chance that there would be at least one decent snowfall during the winter season. Now, 0 out of the last 10.

I put this down to the complete disappearance of the stalling active front over Central UK breakdown scenario, the complete disappearance of the easterly cold front sweeping the country and a slight raising of ambient temperatures that have caused snow to stop sticking and/or fall as sleet/rain. So both synoptics and temperatures.

Edited September 9, 2006 by The Enforcer

[summer blizzard]

Even with an identical synoptic pattern the source of the air is nowhere near as cold during a even larger teapot as it was before the rapid warming period of the previous 15 years.

2005 proved that we can get the synoptics, 2006 proved that we can get the required cold pool, we have been unlucky that we have not yet had a combination of the two.

I believe it was Glacier Point who made a post last year, that the core of the cold in the Arctic is just as cold as 30 years ago and the Polar Front can get just as far south however the intermidiatery cold pool (-10C) does not reach as far south as 30 years ago.

Ian Brown, i agree with your thoughts, at this stage, here are my CET predictions for the winter period...

November - 3.9C

December - 3.1C

January - 3.7C

February - 1.2C

March - 7.9C

[Roger J Smith]

I found the discussion of 1974-75 interesting, because some similar things happened in Ontario where I lived back then. It was quite cool in September 1974, especially the second half, but from 30 Sept to 2 Oct it was actually below freezing for most of 48 hours with snow lying on the ground in the daytime, which is very unusual that early in the season. The whole month of October was then quite chilly, probably 3-6 degrees below normal, then it warmed up rapidly for November and the anomalies were 3-6 above normal from then until February 1975. The winter was probably the least snowy of all the winters I recall or at least one of the three least snowy, but March then became cold and somewhat more snow fell than normal, followed by a really freakish blizzard on 2-3 April (75) which left three feet of snow on the ground, and up to seven feet in giant drifts in open country, lasting for about two weeks. The daily melt-freeze cycle turned these drifts into something like concrete, you couldn't easily shovel it away, so people were stranded in their homes for up to a week in areas north of Toronto. When that was finally melted, it stayed very cool for another two weeks, then May 1975 was the warmest on record.

A very strange set of anomalies and hardly one you would recognize as a pattern that might repeat.

Edited September 9, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[Coopsy]

And this is one of the reasons weather fascinates me personally so much, just never expecting what actually happens

[Scorcher]

Ian Brown, i agree with your thoughts, at this stage, here are my CET predictions for the winter period...

November - 3.9C

December - 3.1C

January - 3.7C

February - 1.2C

March - 7.9C

There is no way February will have a CET of 1.2C. It's ridiculous to be even predicting that, and almost 6 months out suggests to me that this is just hopeful ramping. To predict a winter month to have a CET of 1.2C at the current time is like predicting in February that the coming July will have a CET of 21C.

[Coopsy]

There is no way February will have a CET of 1.2C. It's ridiculous to be even predicting that, and almost 6 months out suggests to me that this is just hopeful ramping. To predict a winter month to have a CET of 1.2C at the current time is like predicting in February that the coming July will have a CET of 21C.

Any scientific reasoning why there is no way February will have a CET of 1.2oC? Your statement indicates that there is zero possibilty, that its never happened, that its never gonna happen and can be construed as hopeful mild ramping. It was, as stated, a prediction.

There has infact been 11 years since 1914 where February has recorded a temp of 1.5oC or below, the latest being 1991 at 1.4oC and the trend is falling: (England and Wales mean temps)

2002 - 6.6oC

2004 - 5.0oC

2005 - 4.0oC

2006 - 3.6oC

Source - http://www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/series...tics/ewtemp.txt

[Scorcher]

Any scientific reasoning why there is no way February will have a CET of 1.2oC? Your statement indicates that there is zero possibilty, that its never happened, that its never gonna happen and can be construed as hopeful mild ramping. It was, as stated, a prediction.

There has infact been 11 years since 1914 where February has recorded a temp of 1.5oC or below, the latest being 1991 at 1.4oC and the trend is falling: (England and Wales mean temps)

2002 - 6.6oC

2004 - 5.0oC

2005 - 4.0oC

2006 - 3.6oC

Source - http://www.metoffice.com/climate/uk/series...tics/ewtemp.txt

Exactly, you've just proven how few times it's actually happened since 1914. The trend is falling but 3.6C is still 2.4C higher than 1.2C. The last winter below 1.5C was 1991, 15 years ago. The last few years have been notable for high summer temperatures and not low winter temperatures. Therefore I think making bold predictions about high temperatures months before the time is certainly more understandable with things as they have been over the past few years. Many places in the South haven't even seen an ice day since 1997. For a CET this low you would surely need several ice days.

[Coopsy]

Exactly, you've just proven how few times it's actually happened since 1914. The trend is falling but 3.6C is still 2.4C higher than 1.2C. The last winter below 1.5C was 1991, 15 years ago. The last few years have been notable for high summer temperatures and not low winter temperatures. Therefore I think making bold predictions about high temperatures months before the time is certainly more understandable with things as they have been over the past few years. Many places in the South haven't even seen an ice day since 1997. For a CET this low you would surely need several ice days.

11 times in 92 years is not bad odds (less than a 1 in 9), better than 'never going to happen'

But just as recently as 2002/03 the February CET went from 7.0 to 3.9 so you can never say never (this is now based on the CET so slightly different to the figures I have quoted above from the England and Wales mean temps...CET figures will be used from now on). Admittedly going on recent figures it is going to be difficult, but never out of the question.

True its been a fairly rare occurence for the south to see ice days but we are talking about the CET, so its not all reliant on the south.

[Skiwi]

Last winter we had several ice days around the 3rd of February in Surrey. It is rare but still quite possible for Southern England to recieve ice days. Therefore a CET of 1.2 degrees is possible (under the right weather patterns) and there is no reason why this couldn't happen this winter.

[kold weather]

Indeed last winter we saw several ice days across the country, in fac tone such day had Newcastle having a max temp of -7C. Also at the start of Feb 06 the south of England and central region saw several days where we had ice days, pretty much right out of the blue, heck even the models missed it!

I wouldn't go quite as cold as summer however, atleast not early on as the 80's sort of winter was usually summed up by a fairly mild Dec followed by a colder Jan and Feb. Indeed it's also intresting to note that at tyhe present moment a good comprasion year in terms of the Pacific and Atlantic SSTA is 1985-1986, and both 1986 and 1987 winters had some intresting spells.

I'm not at the moment going to go as far as to say this winter is going to be a very cold one but its intresting to just watch Greenland cool pool pump up...a below average hurricane season not pumping much of the way of heat into the northern lattiudes and plus the presistance of HP cell over Scandinavia region this summer has also been intresting to note.

Looking at the recent winters it would be quite hard to get winter CET of 1.2C, but the last few winters have shown bits of hope here and there and last winter we did come close to a very cold Jan had it not bee nfor the Pacific jet being as strong as it was.

Edited September 10, 2006 by kold weather

[North-Easterly Blast]

Until we see a return to below 10*C annual CETs we will never see a truly cold winter. Last winter came close to delivering something special, but still no cigar, due to persistent shortwvae features in the Greenland area which prevented high pressure building far enough north at a time when Europe became very cold.

To predict now a severe February of a 1.2 CET is utterly ridiculus; going by the weather patterns and trends of recent years this would be almost impossible, to get the correct synoptics for a sufficiently prolonged period of time in any winter month for such a low CET to occur. We have not even seen a sub 3C month for ten years let alone a sub 2C month. We have already broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 2C months; previous longest was 14 years 10 months (1902-1916), it is now at least 15 years 10 months to 16 years and counting. On a more modest point of winter cold we have also broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 3C months (9 years 11 months now and counting).

[J10]

Indeed last winter we saw several ice days across the country, in fac tone such day had Newcastle having a max temp of -7C. Also at the start of Feb 06 the south of England and central region saw several days where we had ice days, pretty much right out of the blue, heck even the models missed it!

Indeed GFS was forecasting for temps of 7c across the country just 1 day before, when many parts had temps close to freezing.

Unusual for GFS to overstate temps in the winter, normally the other way round.