Hurricane Helene

[tinybill]

i think she going to be more trouble ,then gorden was looking at all the models to-night :lol:

[Mondy]

Wind event for Ireland, W.Scotland. Rain event for UK.

On tonight's gfs 06z, Helene gets no closer to the UK than 1500 miles. My advice would be to stop worrying about these storms unless they are actually likely to cause a problem to us. The danger was Gordon - for a while - but in the end, the perceived problem was only in the minds of the forecasters, who had to err on the side of too much caution. It did not "bomb" and there is no forecasting technique, presently available, which could have determined whether it would, or it wouldn't have bombed. It had a chance, but the chance was slimmer than was forecast.

Helene is not likely to be a problem, 20/1 against it being a problem, as it stands today - really!

2 of my family are going on holiday to Mexico (Yucutan) on Tuesday. Now that is something I could do with a decent forecast for.......after last year!!

Paul

Of course, it's only the remains of Helene, but with all projections and forecasts, the remains, like Gordon, do get quite a bit closer than 1500miles. (or did you mean nautical miles?)

[Snowyowl9]

Wind event for Ireland, W.Scotland. Rain event for UK.

Of course, it's only the remains of Helene, but with all projections and forecasts, the remains, like Gordon, do get quite a bit closer than 1500miles. (or did you mean nautical miles?)

Looks like gales perhaps severe for the NW briefly going by the fax, which I posted on the model discussion thread earlier,but I wasn`t expecting much from Helene anyway.

Overall the models did a good job last week of predicting an ex-hurricane coming this way and dieing away.

[shuggee]

Mondy has opened a thread in the main Autumn Section to discuss what's left of Helene as it approaches the UK, here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=32954