North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[kold weather]

Indeed Roger I'm watching Noel quite closely, such systems in the past have given hurricane force gusts. Exactly how strong it'll be at the time is obviously dependant on exactly how strong Noel is before ET and also. I wouldn't bne at all surprised to see wind gusts of 70-75kts if it hits dead on.

Cold night for winnipeg with temps overnihg tgetting down toabout -4C, close to the average over there but cold by UK standards. First cold shot digs down towards Winnipeg during the second half of Friday with an reasonably active frontal system moving through and breifly as the frontal system moves through maybe a touch windy tohugh not as windy as progged last night by the models. Beyond this dry cold shot we see the region go into a warm sector of a LP as it heads a little to the south of Winnipeg and its wake we get a fairly decent drag from the Arctic which brings down 850hpa temps of -11C with some pretty impressive thicknesses of 516mbs.

What is really interesting is the GFS is keen to bring light snow showers into the region and with such tmep profiles any snow that does fall will settle pretty readily and while it won't be much there is a chance for some flurries and light snow showers in the region between monday and Tuesday before a high pressure cell noves in and kills any convection. Certainly could be enough showers about for a dusting, maybe even a touch more in some lucky areas.

Because we have really low thickness I think its reasonable to expect a ice day for at least Tuesday, the real cold may not quite dig down fast enough on Monday but it should be good enough by Tuesday. If any snow is on the ground it could wlel help to keep temps a little lower for the upcoming days beyond that. The GFS has some really low temps despite the rise in both thickness and 850hpa temps and this can probably be down to the GFS expecting snowcover. whether its the case or not though who knows!

As others have said the models then dig this cold shot further down into the states, can't rule out some LES occuring in some lucky places however away from maybe the far north of the USA near the Great Lakes temps don't appear to be shockingly cold, though make no mistake about it, they are pretty below average.

By the way a little bit of trivia, the largest snowfall for Winnipeg

[Roger J Smith]

Noel is now projected to track further west across Nova Scotia, could bring sustained winds of 60-80 mph with gusts to 100 mph late Sunday including the Halifax area which was hit hard by Juan in 2003.

[Roger J Smith]

Noel is almost over top of the "hotel" buoy at 38.5 N 70.4 W, winds there have dropped to only 10 mph from the east and pressure is down to about 974 mbs. The storm continues to look impressive on satellite and should move across the western tip of Nova Scotia around 06z then through southeast NB and western PEI around 09 to 12z. Some areas may get damaging wind gusts to 100 mph with this storm, and it's fortunate that it comes halfway from full to new moon, otherwise the storm surge would be a big factor with 12 metre waves added in. The coastline of Nova Scotia is generally fairly elevated like southwest England so that large waves have a fair amount of cliff exposure to bash against, but there is bound to be some coastal flooding in the Bay of Fundy and on the north side of NS and around PEI where coastlines are lower.

[debs]

Hi Guys,

Noel began to make a show about an hour ago here in New Brunswick. I'm right on the coast (St martins where the world highest tides are) and the waves are lashing up already. Wind is pretty strong and rain coming down slightly horizontallyWarnings are to prepare for the worst. High tide due in a little under 3 hours (7.51 AST). Predicted winds are now at 120 to 140 K. Its my first "hurricane" type weather so pretty excited. Will let you know how bad/good it was, if I still have electricity tomorrow and a telephone line. Would take photos but may be too dark, but will give it a go.

Wish me luck

Debs

[Roger J Smith]

Is that located west of St John, will look it up in a moment in any case -- the storm track seems to be heading towards landfall near St John or slightly west (not to be confused in the UK with St John's NF), and please note, the latest obs from the ocean buoy at 39N 71W is quite concerning, as soon as the centre passed by there, a NW 50-80 mph wind set in, and this is not the strongest wind in the circulation. So, would advise you to watch the Weather Network if on your cable TV for last-minute guidance on track (the radar should show you an eye-like development approaching around midnight to 2 a.m.), and consider taking better shelter if you are on the east side of this track as I am expecting there to be significant wind damage in a wide swath to the east of the track. To the west, windy enough but not much damage, so it all depends on the exact position relative to the track for you -- take care, and post what you can if it's safe.

[debs]

Hi,

Electricity went out about 7.15pm and is back on now. Wind was strong but thankfully not too damaging. Shook the house a few times. St Martins is East of Saint John on the fundy bay. By Midnight the winds got stonger and never stoped blowing. Pretty scary actually. Woke this morning to sunny skies and slightly windy weather and the forcast is good for less wind in the afternoon.

Have'nt thrown the emergency water away yet just in case the power goes out again:-)

[WhiteFox]

The first Lake Effect Event has set in today, beginning in the Northern part of Wisconsin by Lake Superior. As the cold digs in and thicknesses fall tonight this will turn rain to snow on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and later on into Lower Michigan. Could be a few inches (4-6) over Northern WI/UP MI by the time the wind blows through. The system responsible moves through quite quickly though which sets up areas off Lake Erie and Ontario for Tuesday/Wednesday. Less in the way of snow here; more likely a mix, although high ground will probably seem some accumulation.

Also, first freeze of the season spreading south; as far as Atlanta, Ga forecast to be just above freezing.

For Kold Weather, forecast windchills for International Falls tomorrow are -10oC, but winds look set to calm down towards Winnipeg where the temperature should sneak just above freezing. Forecasts for the next week show temperatures remaining above freezing for the next week.

[WhiteFox]

The first snowfall event of the season (beyond LES) currently taking place here in the NorthEast. A fast moving system from the West moved to the Mid-Atlantic and deepened rapidly moving up the East coast. Currently in New York it's 5oC and raining steadily, but about 50 miles to the North the rain has turned to snow. The radar image below is about 2 hours out of date; the current mix line is a bit North of HPN on the map (but I was having trouble capturing the latest map.)

[debs]

Hiya,

Snowed here over night. 5cm laying here but upto 15cm in some places. Temps down to -4 overnight. Wind was very strong almost as strong as last Saturdays hurricane. . Electricity went out for 10 hours because of the ice forming on power lines. Small snowflakes fell most of the night though, woke up to covering. Nothing lavish I am sure but nice to see. Temps forcast to get to -10 overnight. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Debs

Edited November 11, 2007 by debs

[Roger J Smith]

Major wind and rain storm approaching southwestern BC tonight, likely to blow through around sunrise Monday which is a holiday here. We have to go across to Vancouver Island to see an ill relative today, thinking of staying on to get some photos of large waves and wind damage expected in Victoria and region on Monday, so will post any interesting shots later.

Looks like 60 knot gusts with a tight gradient forming ahead of a deep low currently around 500 miles offshore. Hoping to find a safe place to park the vehicle and then a good viewpoint for the storm's morning fury. That's if we get over there at all, ferry still running but wouldn't be surprised if the later runs are cancelled.

[Mondy]

Major storm arrived.

Power out in BC

[Roger J Smith]

Dead right there, Mondy, the power went out at 0700 in our hotel, about two hours after the winds started tossing deck chairs around on the pool deck. It has now calmed somewhat from S 60 mph to SW 30 in advance of the westerly blast we are expecting here in Victoria (on Vancouver Island) ... should have some nifty wave and tree damage shots later on as it looks like another 60 mph blast coming in. Power is only out in a few spots, most of Victoria seems to be okay so far. More later.

[Mondy]

It was a radio ham in Maple Ridge, BC who reported the power had gone out at his place. Was running the worldwide DX cluster node on battery power, said he!

Chuck in some webcam links if you know of any..

Edited November 12, 2007 by Mondy

[Roger J Smith]

Just got back from the adventure, lots of photos and even movies of big waves to process but too tired to do it now as midnight has come and gone, off to bed and then work so it's going to be 24-36 hours before any of these get onto the net anywhere. Oh well. We did have the blast of westerly winds around noon to 2 pm local time, it promptly cleared up for a time, then hailed for 15 minutes, cleared up again and the winds died down allowing ferry service to resume, so with an extra boat or two they managed to work through the backlog of travellers and we didn't have too long a wait.

Apparently there was a lot more tree damage over on this side than the island, probably because the trees over there have been culled more successfully by previous storms, I suppose, it was certainly windy enough. At one point I was standing on the southern tip of Vancouver Island trying to take some pictures into a 50 knot wind, not the easiest situation for steady hands but we'll see how that turned out ... the preview pictures look alright. Everything has calmed down now and the low is in Alberta, you'll have what's left of it after a few twists and turns in about 10 days time.

[WhiteFox]

Just got back from the adventure, lots of photos and even movies of big waves to process but too tired to do it now as midnight has come and gone, off to bed and then work so it's going to be 24-36 hours before any of these get onto the net anywhere. Oh well. We did have the blast of westerly winds around noon to 2 pm local time, it promptly cleared up for a time, then hailed for 15 minutes, cleared up again and the winds died down allowing ferry service to resume, so with an extra boat or two they managed to work through the backlog of travellers and we didn't have too long a wait.

Apparently there was a lot more tree damage over on this side than the island, probably because the trees over there have been culled more successfully by previous storms, I suppose, it was certainly windy enough. At one point I was standing on the southern tip of Vancouver Island trying to take some pictures into a 50 knot wind, not the easiest situation for steady hands but we'll see how that turned out ... the preview pictures look alright. Everything has calmed down now and the low is in Alberta, you'll have what's left of it after a few twists and turns in about 10 days time.

Ironically I flew into Vancouver yesterday and spent the night at my relatives in Langley. Anyway as we were drinking up last night I could hear the wind howling around the house. Woke up several times during the night to some pretty impressive wind gusts.

I had to get over to Victoria and, checking the website, found out that the ferries had started running again. As I approached Tsawassen for the 3pm ferry the signs told me that the 3 and 5pm ferries were full with possible waits for the 6pm. I finally drove on to the ferry at 8 Pm...

It seems that although some wet and windy weather was forecast, the strength of the storm was underestimated; gusts in Victoria reached 100KPH.

Still haven't made that drink Roger; hopefully we have a new customer on the mainland in Vancouver; if you're really lucky I'll let you thrash me at golf sometime!

Had a few showers here in Victoria this evening; on the 14th floor overlooking the bay.

Edited November 13, 2007 by WhiteFox

[Coopsy]

The precipitation from the low that hit BC hit here yesterday in the Rockies and we got about 5 hours of snow, and then it passed on through. No major wind just about 3 inches of snow in town in the process, much more on the slopes

[Roger J Smith]

Storm videos from Monday, first one taken at Victoria's waterfront park at 1130 PST, looking east, and later at 1400 PST to the west of there, at Sooke Regional Park, panning from west to south in that case.

This link shows both videos, just select the Victoria one first, then the Juan de Fuca video.

http://www.bebo.com/ProfileVideoTab.jsp?MemberId=5007614729

Edited November 14, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[WhiteFox]

Looks like the cold air is starting to dig in over Canada:

Signs of more prolonged cold possible as well. Some very low 850s possible on that chart!

Having said that, the 18z run is not so favourable as the 12z which showed more agreement for prolonged cold.

Whatever happens, it looks like temperatures for Winnipeg at least are going to fall to average or below from next week. Highs forecast at -1oC next Tuesday and then -3 to -4 thereafter.

Elsewhere, Chicago is around about average with temps of around 8oC and New is below average with temps around 7 to 8oC for the next few days before a warm up.

Meanwhile, October was very warm in the Eastern half of the US:

With records set in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and Rhode Island. I know that New York City also equalled its warmest October on record.

[debs]

Storm videos from Monday, first one taken at Victoria's waterfront park at 1130 PST, looking east, and later at 1400 PST to the west of there, at Sooke Regional Park, panning from west to south in that case.

This link shows both videos, just select the Victoria one first, then the Juan de Fuca video.

http://www.bebo.com/ProfileVideoTab.jsp?MemberId=5007614729

Hi Roger,

tried to view your videos. I am a member of Bebo but was unable to view them. Any chance you could send them another way, would love to see those.

Temps here today upto 14c, very mild day. Nothing too fantastic going on here in New Brunswick. Monday morning woke up to see the Bay of Fundy "steaming". First time I've ever seen that, where the sea temps are higher than the air temps and create a steam effect. Does this have a special name? Let me know.

TTFN

Debs

[Roger J Smith]

Hi Debs and others who have had trouble seeing these videos,

Sometimes it logs in and sometimes it doesn't ... so some have managed to see the videos and some haven't.

I have tried to fix this problem so try again, and if you're confronted with a log-in page, type in "weatherguy" as the password. These are the only videos I have uploaded and so there is nothing else to see there anyway, so use my password with complete impunity.

But I think it should auto-log-on now, whatever that means actually.

[Coopsy]

Colder weather digging in here in Alberta at the mo, I went out at 1pm today and the high was -8oC. Night time lows getting down to -16oC. Just a serious lack of snow at the moment. Not complaining though as the sunshine is gorgeous

[kold weather]

Woah thats real cold from the 12z GFS for the Winnipeg region...bitter...though not sure it'll get quite that cold mind you!

[WhiteFox]

There's certainly a large and quite intense area of cold air developing over Canada:

The first element for any cold shot required for us down in the US. Sooner or later that air will make it's way further South. The 0z shows the cold air intensifying further:

And then further still with hints of a push down towards the North East US:

Some pretty low thickness levels also starting to appear by next week:

If you were in Winnipeg over the next week or so you could expect maxima in the range of -12oC to -7oC (tomorrow is forecast to be -7oC with snow showers). The current reading for Winnipeg is -11oC with light snow.

At the moment I'm in Corpus Christi, TX where I can expect temperatures in the mid 20s this week. A far cry from the snow which delayed me on Saturday morning in El Paso airport in Texas!

[Coopsy]

High pressure moving in to western canada, but not before a few inches have fallen here in Alberta as the remnants of an Alberta clipper-esce style low departs the area. Snowing now for approx 5 hours and still going. Temps moderate at around -5oC for the day, but as a northerly kicks in later this week, high of -15oC possible, with lows in the -20's.

[lesta_snow]

Can anyone tell me what it could be like between the 14th and 18th december in newyork because thats when im jetting off there to do some christmas shopping?... i would like some snow