North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[Roger J Smith]

I would speculate that the milder options will verify -- the storm heading inland here later on Monday will bring a powerful surge of very mild air across the Rockies into the central plains but beyond that, the blocking complex to our north here is gradually weakening. Normal service should be resumed soon, this trend of super-cold air blasting down out of central arctic regions of Canada seems to be shutting down as part of the source region air mass leaks away in a retrograde jet over Alaska into oblivion, circulating around in the Pacific at high latitudes ... sort of the Atlantic waste of cold air situation applied over here for a change ... and I think that once the western block breaks down, the flow will revert to the mild coast-to-coast fast westerly type that confines wintry weather to central and northern Canada once again.

[Coast]

'Winter storm blamed for at least 10 deaths' Des Moines Iowa

And in Canada

Edited December 3, 2007 by Coast

[debs]

must have cost a fortune to get all that flour everywhere!

LOL

Love it..........its amazing what FX you can make with digi cameras Kidding.

Awaiting the next promised snow. Took daughter for a drive yesterday, well not quite a drive more like a drag, we tied some rope to the back of the car and dragged her along on her sled........love it

TTFN

Debs

Oh bit pf a heatwave here at present......its 0 degrees, might go put on my shorts and T Shirt......

[Coopsy]

Woke up this morning to a good 8 inches, of snow that is, still snowing though expect it to end soon

[WhiteFox]

Extremely unsettled across the North West US/South West Canada and the North East. Two powerful storms, but the one off the West coast of the continent looks like a monster:

This storm has brought gusts of wind in excess of 100mph on the Oregon coast line with hurricane force winds widely recorded along the coast. In fact, the weather stations have raised hurricane wind flags!

Also a very sharp temperature gradient as pointed out by Nick yesterday:

You can see where Vancouver got its snow from and why they are now concerned about flooding as snow levels look to rise quite rapidly.

[Coopsy]

I have witnessed one of those rare weather events...continual snowfall for 24 hours. Still snowing here, another warning has been issued for a further 4-6 inches ontop of the 8-10 inches we already have. Its certainly interesting walking and driving out there today...pics to come

[Stuart]

look like a lot of snow falling in rochester area at the mo

http://rochesterweather.myserver.org/webcam/WebCam.htm

[tinybill]

look like a lot of snow falling in rochester area at the mo

http://rochesterweather.myserver.org/webcam/WebCam.htm

hope that person in the cam got plenty of rock salt!!

[Roger J Smith]

Well, it warmed up so quickly and with so much rain (generally 50-150 mms in the region) that the lovely snowfall melted almost immediately and is now pretty much all gone at lower elevations around here. And it is 14 C with a steady rain, feels like we are now in the subtropics rather than the subarctic. Oh well.

[Coopsy]

Snow has all but stopped here now, just a few flurries in the wind, not quite the 4-6 inches today but all in told 30 hours of snowfall and a foot deep. Nice to see.

Roger, are you at risk of floods where you live? I hear Vancouver could be in trouble the way the rain is going

[WhiteFox]

I would speculate that the milder options will verify -- the storm heading inland here later on Monday will bring a powerful surge of very mild air across the Rockies into the central plains but beyond that, the blocking complex to our north here is gradually weakening. Normal service should be resumed soon, this trend of super-cold air blasting down out of central arctic regions of Canada seems to be shutting down as part of the source region air mass leaks away in a retrograde jet over Alaska into oblivion, circulating around in the Pacific at high latitudes ... sort of the Atlantic waste of cold air situation applied over here for a change ... and I think that once the western block breaks down, the flow will revert to the mild coast-to-coast fast westerly type that confines wintry weather to central and northern Canada once again.

Seems to be the option that most mets are going for. Quite a similar pattern to last year in that respect, although it has been considerably colder in the East during November and December. Last year saw a cold first week of December for the Midwest especially and then a zonal pattern set in for quite some time with the cold air being locked in place until the middle of January. Of course, this then led into a cold February, but it'll be interesting to see how this year pans out. Last year was particularly snowless for the North East so hopefully there'll be a bit more action this year.

[WhiteFox]

Currently snowing here in Chicago; about an inch so far with another possible five inches to come. A clipper system coming in from the North West feeding us with the moisture and the cold air was already in place. Of course, people are more used to snow over here and they are very good at keeping the roads clear. I've just driven up the Edens Expressway and all is well so far even though the slip roads are covered.

Time for some pictures later on...

[WhiteFox]

Proving to be quite a productive clipper system tonight. We're up to about three inches here in Northbrook, IL tonight and the snow is coming down harder than ever. Lost control of the car completely on the way back from dinner, was travelling in the right direction, but at a 45 degree angle! Fortunately it was a quiet road...

Anyway, could easily be another couple of inches overnight, especially if the lake peps things up somewhat as the winds swing around to give a NNE to NE component. 6 inches isn't beyond the realms of possibility:

[Roger J Smith]

Considering how much rain we had on top of the snow (the average snowfall amounts at lower elevations 10-20 cms, the average rainfall 150 mm with 300 reported in some upland areas), the results were not too catastrophic. There was the usual assortment of nuisance urban flooding in the metro Vancouver area, places that always get closed because there was never any realistic way to engineer for this much rain, but people are used to that. Whenever there's new development, people downslope from it get particularly nasty flooding from the extreme runoff that takes place before all the drainage is completed, some poor doctor had his office flooded by this sort of thing. And there was one case where they evacuated a neighbourhood fearing that debris in the creek would totally clog the concrete spillways and divert all the debris and water through the neighbourhood. Apparently round the clock work barely saved that from actually happening.

There were some nasty accidents on the roads in the interior of BC too, but the storm is now more or less over and just a shadow of its former self in SK and MT. Now it's back to clear and cold weather that never got too far away to our north, and is returning slowly to the south. Quite a strange pattern we're in with the vortex to our north being suppressed by the huge block over the Beaufort Sea. I can only hope something similar sets up for western Europe before the winter is done. Seems possible because this winter is being governed by massive anomalies in the polar regions (pos and neg) so with those shifting around, your number may come up sooner or later. Hope so, I know people don't come on here to find out how mild it's going to be (at least most of them don't). ... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

[Roger J Smith]

After posting the above, I learned that there was more severe damage in Washington state than in BC, larger areas are flooded and more roads are impassable, mainly in the Mount Rainier and Mount St Helens runoff zones that cross the north-south I-5 between Tacoma and Portland, but also on the west coast due to hurricane force wind gusts there (we did not get these in BC) ... also I saw on our local news that parts of the Fraser Canyon near Boston Bar have been left inaccessible by large mudslides and rockslides on either side of the town, cutting the old Trans-Canada route (there is a newer route now across the Cascades). More damage may eventually be reported in southern BC because the rain has only just let up (we had quite the odd sunset here on Tuesday, as skies finally cleared while it was still raining hard to the north and east of downtown Vancouver, wish I had my camera, golden glow of mammatus would be the basic description of it).

Well, this storm has probably left behind the basic ingredients for more slides later this month, if we get longer warm spells and more rain, the waterlogged heavy snow at medium elevations will all come down because it's likely to freeze tomorrow and Thursday -- here, we have to keep in mind, we are trying to build cities in what is essentially a rainforest and mountain wilderness -- another California in the making unless we see some better planning, I fear, with more frequent and widespread natural disasters. The same applies to the Seattle-Tacoma region.

[Coopsy]

Very interesting conditions here last night. Driving back from poker at about 10pm yesterday it was minus 10oC and raining. Made for near impossible driving as it was freezing on impact on everything....the windshield had to be de-iced every minute. Apparantly there was a warm front sitting over the very cold air at the surface level. Never experience it pesonally before

[debs]

Woke up this morning to a good 8 inches, of snow that is, still snowing though expect it to end soon

Was about to get on a plane to the west coast until you mentioned the 8 inches were of snow....... ...c'est la vie

We had 24 hours here of snow, started around 11.30 Monday morning and continued through, woke up Tuesday to my daughters first official (and deserved) snow day. Built an igloo, it was still snowing. Had a foot of snow in 24 hours and just up the road in Moncton, they got 46 cm. Got down to -8 last night with a wind chill of about -16. More flurries forecast for tonight into tomorrow. I will just say that I am getting used to the terms they use on the weather stations....

Flurries = The amount of snow coming down in UK to justify shutting schools (but that usually stops after a few hours, this keeps going and going, should call it duracell really)

Wet Snow = The good sticky stuff that you can actually make a snowman with.

Light Snow = The equivalent to the British Blizzard, but again it just keeps on going ang going.....

Heavy Snow = Well if light is what I am used to as a blizzard in England, I look forward to Heavy snow soon.

According to the locals this is mild. I pinch myself at this because I have just went through a snow storm, with power outages and a foot of snow and this is mild. GULP!

TTFN

Debs

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

[Coopsy]

Was about to get on a plane to the west coast until you mentioned the 8 inches were of snow....... ...c'est la vie

We had 24 hours here of snow, started around 11.30 Monday morning and continued through, woke up Tuesday to my daughters first official (and deserved) snow day. Built an igloo, it was still snowing. Had a foot of snow in 24 hours and just up the road in Moncton, they got 46 cm. Got down to -8 last night with a wind chill of about -16. More flurries forecast for tonight into tomorrow. I will just say that I am getting used to the terms they use on the weather stations....

Flurries = The amount of snow coming down in UK to justify shutting schools (but that usually stops after a few hours, this keeps going and going, should call it duracell really)

Wet Snow = The good sticky stuff that you can actually make a snowman with.

Light Snow = The equivalent to the British Blizzard, but again it just keeps on going ang going.....

Heavy Snow = Well if light is what I am used to as a blizzard in England, I look forward to Heavy snow soon.

According to the locals this is mild. I pinch myself at this because I have just went through a snow storm, with power outages and a foot of snow and this is mild. GULP!

TTFN

Debs

http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

Hi Deb

I saw the pics on the weather network this morning from Moncton, looks pretty bad out your way, especially withthe high winds and the power lines down.

[WhiteFox]

Managed 6 inches in Chicago last night. This afternoon we had some unusual Lake Effect Snow; Chicago is not usually on the receiving end of LES. but a band set up and piled up the snow for a couple of hours. This gave another two inches of snow. I've never actually seen LES falling before (having seen the 10 feet aftermath last year), but it can be best described as looking like bits of cotton falling from the sky. I can see why some call it fake snow, but it's real enough to slip over on as I found out...

[debs]

Managed 6 inches in Chicago last night. This afternoon we had some unusual Lake Effect Snow; Chicago is not usually on the receiving end of LES. but a band set up and piled up the snow for a couple of hours. This gave another two inches of snow. I've never actually seen LES falling before (having seen the 10 feet aftermath last year), but it can be best described as looking like bits of cotton falling from the sky. I can see why some call it fake snow, but it's real enough to slip over on as I found out...

Ouch!!!!!!! Hope you're okay. My little one done the same thing this morning, slipped on the porch. I cleared it off but more snow fell overnight. I have'nt seen any really big flakes yet, perhaps this is because I live near the beach. Still theres lying snow and I am a happy bunny.

TTFN

Debs

[WhiteFox]

Ouch!!!!!!! Hope you're okay. My little one done the same thing this morning, slipped on the porch. I cleared it off but more snow fell overnight. I have'nt seen any really big flakes yet, perhaps this is because I live near the beach. Still theres lying snow and I am a happy bunny.

TTFN

Debs

Nothing but a bit of wounded dignity...

I think you only get big flakes when the temperatures are closer to freezing in the upper levels; more likely to be a spring phenomenon over here. In Chicago in April there was 3 inches from a storm which dumped some very big flakes.

Anyway, a warmer interlude is certainly on the way; 850s forecast to reach for the +10 level in New York. In some ways not a bad thing; I love cold at winter, but over here it gets so dry and the dewpoints are so low that my hands start cracking up and, believe it or not, I suffer from more nosebleeds! It's currently -3oC here in New York with a dewpoint of -12oC...

Also, I notice another 2-4 inches of snow forecast for Chicago this evening; after some recent winters with rather low totals it looks like the Mr Plows may be kept more busy this year.

Anyway, ensembles for New York showing the warmup followed by another cooldown:

It's a similar picture for Chicago where there seems to be a large amount of ppn on the cards:

A couple of interesting features here; the weekend system looks like a snow to rain feature, but not too heavy. The system on the 10th looks more potent and could produce some freezing rain. With the 10 or so inches on the ground by that stage it'll be pretty miserable in Chicago by then. I've seen much warmer air flood through a snow-covered Chicago before and produce fog so thick you can only just make out the building on the other side of the street.

As for Minneapolis, their position that bit further North and west keeps them in the colder air over the whole period other than into FI. In fact, the 10 day forecast shows the closest the Twin Cities get to freezing is -3oC today and next Thursday. A 'high' of -12oC is forecast for both Saturday and Sunday. The average high at this time of year is about -2oC so it's a good bit colder than average; such is the effect of a decent snowpack on the ground which is a complete reversal of last year.

[debs]

I love cold at winter, but over here it gets so dry and the dewpoints are so low that my hands start cracking up and, believe it or not, I suffer from more nosebleeds!

Hiya Whitefox,

You mentioned you get nosebleeds, so I thought i would ask if this is because of the cold. I have had a couple of nose bleeds this past week and when I saw your post it made me wonder?????

Temps overnight here were down to -20 and even now at 10am its still only -15....I went outside to take a picture of the ocean "steaming" and froze my fingers after only a couple of minutes without gloves.

Anyway heres some photos of the "steaming Sea"

TTFN

Debs

Edited December 7, 2007 by debs

[WhiteFox]

Debs, you get nosebleeds because the air is so dry; the airmasses coming down from the North West, which are also the coldest, tend to be extremely dry. I'm not ashamed to admit that I use moisturiser in the winter over here! You may also notice if you look at the radar that there are occasions when the radar shows it should be snowing, but nothing is reaching the ground. If you have light or even moderate ppn falling into dewpoints around -20oC or below then the moisture is literally absorbed into the air. I saw a couple of systems come through here last year where it took about an hour for any moisture to finally make it to the ground!

Anyway some punishing cold over the Midwest. I see that Chicago got down to 0oF (-18oC) which equalled the record for the date. However, this is positively balmy compared to International Falls where the temperature has just reached 0oF at 3pm! Even colder than Debs!

[WhiteFox]

Whoever was visting NY between the 14th to 18th could be here for something interesting...

It's still beyond any reasonable forecast range, but a coastal storm is beginning to appear on the charts. A shift of a hundred miles West or East makes a big difference to these storms, but it looks like becoming cold for a few days at least thereafter. Anyway, the chart looks like this for next Saturday:

At the moment there are a few ingredients missing; a Canadian high for one and Cold Air Daming for another, bith of which are usually a big help for any significant Nor'Easter. On the plus side, Canada has been below average temperature wise for quite some time now and this could help with temperatures. The chart shown would probably produce mostly rain for NYC, but we shall see... The ensembles show a couple of different variations:

A couple go for pure rain events and some for snow. We shall see!

Addit, more snow for Debs either way from this system; some pretty strong winds too. I guess you're used to it by now!

Edited December 9, 2007 by WhiteFox

[johnholmes]

keep the updates, photos and comments about real winter coming into NW I find them very interesting indeed.

I would still like a map of USA and Canada with your locations marked on them if that is possible, including CC and Roger?

I saw your, what I would call 'scatter' map Roger but I'm old fashioned so would prefer if its not too much bother a 'real' map with place names?

Edited December 9, 2007 by johnholmes