North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

[WhiteFox]

Forecasts are going for 18oC on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the clocks having just gone forward it's going to feel very pleasant with the sun setting at 7pm. Very pleasant today as it happens; It's about 12oC which feels positively springlike after the last few weeks!

[Coopsy]

Heavy rain has been occuring here for the past day or so, all snow has gone in the valleys. This has lead to mudslides and avalanche warnings and actuall occurences. Most raods into BC are shut due to the risk, temps have been warm with 15oC being reached over the weekend here in southern Alberta

Reports of rain at the low level ski slopes but snow higher up the mountain

[Coopsy]

Ok say that didnt last long...woke up today to white out conditions and about 2 inches fell in an hour...oh the joys

[WhiteFox]

Looks like winter has one last blast left in it for New York!

Temperature was 21oC here yesterday and it felt great. Today we have a cold front pushing down from the North West. Current temperatures are about 15oC here in Queens and about 5oC in Poughkeepsie, about 70 miles North. The temperature has dropped about 4oC in the past hour...

So, what's ahead? The cold front is forecast to drop South and remain stationary just south of New York. In the meantime, a developing low pressure, currently to the South of Louisiana, is forecast to cross Florida and then track up the East coast. The result?

The coastal storm will develop nicely and bump into the cold air to the north. Rain will turn to sleet overnight tonight and then snow tomorrow morning from the initial cold front. This will cause nothing but wet roads. The real fun starts tomorrow night when the main storm system arrives. This will fall as snow, with perhaps some mixing to sleet at times. Current forecasts are going for 3-6 inches of snow overnight Friday, with the possibility of more depending on the degree of mixing with sleet. Temperatures are forecast to top out at 1oC....

A winter storm watch has just been issued. Not bad for the middle of March!

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.070316T0900Z- 070317T1200Z/ NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-BERGEN- EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS- NASSAU- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- 507 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET FRIDAY EVENING...AND MAY EVEN TURN TO ALL SLEET FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE A CHANGEOVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET EXISTS...BEFORE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS SATURDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[WhiteFox]

Our earlier Winter Storm Watch has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. The track of this system has been causing real headaches, but the forecast totals for PPN have been rising as the day has progressed. The latest warning makes for interesting reading. It's starting to look like we are facing a SECS (Significant East Coast Snowstorm):

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY

416 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA AND

WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.

IN ITS WAKE...RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT

WITH THE COLDER AIR TAKING HOLD...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE

TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS LATE THIS

EVENING AND THEN THE CHANGEOVER WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST BY

DAYBREAK.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

COMMUTE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY ON

FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE

GULF COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS

NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS FRIDAY

NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FRIDAY AFTERNOON

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET

ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS...TO AS MUCH AS 8 TO 14

INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM

WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-160430-

/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0003.070316T0900Z-070317T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.070316T0900Z-070317T1200Z/

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-

PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-

416 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2007

[BARRY]

snowing in new york

[WhiteFox]

Conditions are pretty treacherous here right now. We had snow earlier on which left about two inches on the ground. This has since turned to sleet and freezing rain. We now have moderate freezing rain falling on the snow turning it into a crunchy mess...

This is forecast to continue for some time yet as the coastal storm is really getting going now. Strong North-Easterly winds will be moving in to really make things uncomfortable! In upstate New York they are looking at more than a foot of snow from this system. I think we are looking at plain freezing rain from now on in New York itself as warmer air is wrapped around the storm aloft.

[WhiteFox]

PPN is easing off here now. About 4 inches of snow/sleet on the ground topped off with freezing rain. Already cars are finding it impossible to get out of parking spaces. Fortunately temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing over the next few days so a repeat of the aftermath of the Valentines Day storm is not on the cards...

Edited March 17, 2007 by WhiteFox

[WhiteFox]

Some of the guys on Eastern US/WX forums are calling this the worst ice storm since 1978. Many areas reporting 5-6 inches of well compacted ice. Some obs on this thread

it snowed from about 8.30 to about 12pm, and then changed to sleet. The sleet fell pretty heavily all day, becoming very heavy at about 7pm. Then we finally had some freezing rain. I've just been out clearing the sidewalk and it is like shovelling concrete. You have to take what can only be described as a chisel with a long handle, break the ice up as best you can, and then shovel the debris out of the way. Very, very hard work. It is much more difficult to shift than the 2 feet of snow we had last February. Lots of people burning tyres trying to get out of parking spaces!

[Coopsy]

I can relate to many with regards to heavy snow and not settling. Currently very heavy snow - radar shows 2inches per hour , yet it is too warm and just making everything wet

[Coopsy]

http://theweathernetwork.com/weather/alert...gion=WWCAAB0020

Winer storm watch for many parts of Alberta...possibly a foot of snow (said on the weather channel, but Environment Canada playing safe stating anything from 5 cms upwards)

[WhiteFox]

Many daily records broken across the upper Midwest today. Minneapolis hit 81oF (27oC) today, with Chicago recording 78oF (26oC). The average high for Minneapolis at this time of year is 46oF (8oC) so that is some way above average! As Paul Sherman said on another thread, it looks like the season is kicking off early again this year. The Bermuda high is drawing in some very warm air to the South East US with records also being set there. New York is forecast to hit 72oF (22oC) tomorrow before cooling off slightly, and Washington DC looks like breaking 80oF. More like late spring temperatures already; it's hard to believe that I was digging out from a severe ice storm last weekend!

[Coopsy]

I am very suprised that the weather forecastors got it so wrong. At 8am this morning they were giving a snowfall warning of 6 inches starting at approx 12pm going through to 8ish pm (so just 4 hours in advance)

We ended up with not even a snowflake, all of it passing about 100km to our East. Funny game is the weather

[WhiteFox]

The final figures are in for the US winter 2006-7 and it was very much a winter of two halves! Record warmth for December in many North Eastern states and above average elsewhere, followed by daily records being set in many places in the early part of January. Then came a massive pattern change and the Midwest and North East were plunged into a deep freeze lasting until the end of February.

The overall temperature departures from average for February are highly impressive:

The upper Midwest and High Plains showing markedly lower than average temperatures for February. This led to the rapid freeze of the lakes and helped to moderate the earlier warmth. In terms of average temperatures by state, the picture shows 7 states returning a 'much below normal' temperature (defined as being in the coldest 11 on record), with every other state in the East recording below normal temperatures.

For the winter as a whole, the picture is closer to average, with many more states (20) recording above normal (defined as being in the top 38 warmest on record) and only 4 recording below normal temperatures. This just shows how the early season heat offset the later season cold - a real tale of two extremes!

It's interesting to see that Pennsylvania managed to record an above normal winter despite recording one of the top 11 coldest Februaries on record...

A recent study showed some interesting changes happening in the overall climate over here. I've been unable to find the map online but the figures for the change in the length of the growing season (defined as the number of days between the last frost and the first frost) between 1949 and 1999 were as follows:

South East US: 1-2 days longer

North East: 5-10 days

South West: 10-15 days

North West: 15-20 days.

[WhiteFox]

Looks like a final taste of the cold air coming later this week. The same colder air which will kill off the storm activity in the Midwest will deliver much colder temperatures across the Northern Plains through to the North East. The ensembles for New York show 850s getting as low as -15oC by later this week:

At this time of year the sun is already fairly strong, so this will translate to maximum temperatures of about 6-8oC and approaching freezing overnight. Further North can expect snow showers, and it looks like some very late season Lake Effect Snow may kick off for a time, but the fetch is not ideal for long periods of heavy snow; The other weather type which is worth chasing in the US!

Eventually pressure builds in from the South with a slow warm up, but it will be feeling rather chilly throughout the Easter weekend over here!

After this I'd expect more spring-like weather to take hold as the spring warm-up proper engages into April. Having said that. medium range forecasts are only going for temperatures in the mid to high teens; temperatures in the twenties will be a pleasant shock when they do arrive. March has been rather cool over here in the NE US, just about the only part of the country which has been cool!

[WhiteFox]

We had some snow here in New York this morning, albeit light and non-settling. Yesterday was a truly miserable day; heavy rain the whole day and cold with it.

Anyway, the figures for March are in and it was a very warm one across the vast majority of the CONUS:

Notice that the North East (aside from a tiny slightly below normal on the North Dakota/Minnesota border!) is the only area with slightly below normal temps!

As far as state by state figures go, most of the West recorded much above normal temperatures for March (defined as being in the top 11 warmest on record) and again only the North East and Florida show normal temperatures for the month.

The recent cool down across the US means that April is starting off on a below average note for large areas; the pattern looks locked in for a week or two at least so we'll see how it pans out.

[Coopsy]

Well easter has produced some great warmth for this area. max temps were 21oC, and current temps at 8 pm are a balmy 19oC. Its so mild its unreal

[WhiteFox]

Well easter has produced some great warmth for this area. max temps were 21oC, and current temps at 8 pm are a balmy 19oC. Its so mild its unreal

I think we touched 12oC on one of the days over the weekend, possibly Sunday. Other than that, it's been 8-10oC as maxima for as long as I can remember!

Looks like a wet day coming up but still no real warm up on the horizon.

[NL]

Heavy snow in Witchita

http://www.360wichita.com/wichitacam/

[Roger J Smith]

A very powerful "nor'easter" is developing off the New Jersey coast this afternoon (local time). This will reach 974 mbs by 12z and create winds of 50-80 mph from the SE across large sections of coastal New England, Long Island and northern NJ including parts of NYC tonight and Monday morning. The storm will rotate enough that the colder air will be mainly west of Buffalo to Pittsburgh so Cleveland OH could see 10-15 inches of snow. Their baseball team has been unable to play most of their scheduled home games so far this month.

Severe storms have already ripped across most of FL, GA and SC, and are approaching the Miami area and eastern NC on land, otherwise the front is already well out into the Atlantic.

If you have TV coverage of the PGA event at Hilton Head SC (here it starts at 1900z or 2000 BST) you may be able to see some video of the storm front coming through that area a few hours ago, as it may have done some damage to the course, also you'll be able to see how windy it is now (W 40-60 mph) behind the first cold front (a second one is approaching, this one drops the temp from mid 70s to low 40s).

For New York City, I would expect 2-4 inches of rain in driving winds, although the worst winds will be closer to Providence and Boston. The storm is likely to occlude rapidly and blow itself apart gradually over the next two days, leaving the northeast U.S. in a raw NE'ly flow.

Edited April 15, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

Just tuned in that golf coverage, play is suspended due to the high winds ... on the 18th green near the ocean, the flagstick is bending at a 30-40 degree angle in the 50 mph winds. Can't play this course because most of the greens have hazards around them and you can't run the ball on to them, or keep a shot on them.

This will amuse any golfers reading -- one of the longer players on the tour hit a 6-iron from 130 yards on one hole and was 45 feet short, so it's about a five club wind as that would normally be a wedge for these players. Even a weak old man such as myself can hit a 6-iron 150 yards or so.

Video also showed sand blowing out of the bunkers in a virtual ground sandstorm, meanwhile, some idiot was out in the Sound trying to navigate a power boat through 2 metre waves.

[WhiteFox]

It's a Major storm alright.

Been raining here in Queens since early this morning; a real soaking rain, and the sides of the roads are like rivers. I would not be at all surprised to see 2-4 inches of rain from this system.

Truly one of the most atrocious days I've seen; not as dangerous as an ice storm, but cold, dark and very wet. Reminds me more of an autumn storm back in the UK. Flooding would seem to be inevitable and the winds which are forecast to pick up as the pressure gradient tightens bring a threat of coastal flooding when combined with high tides.

Just been looking around and I see that average delays into JFK right now are about 6 hours. Glad no-one I know is flying in today!

[WhiteFox]

5.6 inches of rain reported in Central Park up to 8.51pm EDT. My friend in Hoboken, just across from Manhattan in New Jersey, reports that many roads are impassable and cars are being abandoned in floods. Haven't seen any official reports yet, and there is another band of heavy rain heading our way. I'll try and dig up some figures tomorrow. Visibility was down to 0.5 miles at stages today.

Upstate, it looks like rain will be turning to snow later on tonight. Forecasts are going for a foot or more of snow in some areas. Not bad for mid-April!

Further updates detecting lightning over Central Park and Eastern New Jersey. The coastal storm has just bombed; rapid cyclogenesis occurring and the pressure is still dropping. Unsurprisingly, there are many rivers flooding.

FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 708 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

NJC003-013-017-039-NYC005-047-059-061-081-085-119-160215- HUDSON NJ-BERGEN NJ-ESSEX NJ-UNION NJ-BRONX NY-NEW YORK NY-KINGS NY- RICHMOND NY-WESTCHESTER NY-NASSAU NY-QUEENS NY- 723 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 ...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU...WESTCHESTER...UNION...ESSEX...BERGEN AND HUDSON COUNTIES...

AS OF 700 PM EDT...THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAD TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA. 5.55 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN CENTRAL PARK.

UNFORTUNATELY...ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL LIKELY POSSIBLY A BIT MORE BEFORE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TAPERS OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. RIVERS OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...WESTCHESTER AND THE BRONX ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND ARE CONTINUING TO RISE. MANY ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO THE FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS AMONG THE WORST FLOODING SINCE TROPICAL STORM FLOYD CROSSED THE REGION IN SEPTEMBER 1999.

Addit:

Situation at 8Pm EDT:

Central pressure down to 984 MB. The strong winds have not yet arrived... I don't know that we're necessarily going to see the winds quite as strong as were forecast a day ago. I think the amount of rain has really shocked everyone though!

Edited April 16, 2007 by WhiteFox

[Weather-history]

Snowing in Syracuse, New York

http://www.syracuse.com/clintoncam/index.ssf/still.ssf

[Roger J Smith]

Have seen some rainfall totals now in excess of 7 inches in NYC and CT, and snowfalls upstate of 10-15 inches. The centre of this storm is currently just over the south coast of Long Island east of JFK airport. It seems likely to loop around a bit then drift back out into the Atlantic later today.

Very high tides with the strong SE wind flow at the present new moon have driven sea water over seawalls in many parts of the region, especially southeast MA. The next high tide is expected in the next few hours, I heard 1545z on CNN but of course these times vary from one location to another.