Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends(2)

[shuggee]

Worth noting the effect of the recent colder weather on UK waters:

[chionomaniac]

Worth noting the effect of the recent colder weather on UK waters:

Compared to last year:

[memories of 63]

Compared to last year:

In addition to cooler seas around the UK, there's colder water up around Greenland/Iceland and the La Nina is much weaker

[Gavin P]

Hmmmm... Anyone else see the similarity to SST's now and at this point in 2000?

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.11.3.2008.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.11.4.2000.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-001105.gif

[cheeky_monkey]

no similarity to the weather...2000 was the wettest autumn on record

[shuggee]

Oh I don't know Cookie - Southern Scotland has just had twice the average October rainfall...

[SteveB]

Why is there always a large area of warm water of the coast of the USA.

Looking cooler around our parts.

Edited November 9, 2008 by SteveB

[kippure]

Why is there always a large area of warm water of the coast of the USA.

Looking cooler around our parts.

Convayer!

Edited November 9, 2008 by kippure

[Snowyowl9]

Whats causing that very high anomaly over the eastern seaboard it`s been rising every time I look at it.

[SteveB]

Thats what I want to know?.

[shuggee]

As with October's cold snap, local sea temps will probably take a turn towards a negative anomaly again after the weekend and into next week. I'm wondering if this will have a positive affect on the potential for cooler zonality early on in the winter season, with those back edges of Atlantic systems swinging round to the north west and delivering a more wintry mix into the equation... Up here last year in late December and early January (and for much of the rest of the winter above 350m in Scotland), cooler zonality was prevelant. Even cooler ssts than in 2007 might just tip it a wee bit further beyond marginal at sea level [\thinking out loud].

[yido]

I take it the possibility of recurring northerlies would help to lower SST's to our north or is that too simple?

[shuggee]

I think that is certainly the case yido. The temp anomaly pre October's cold northerly was positive - and 5 days later negative. At the moment, we're hovering at or just below average and for me, this weekend will only help that anomaly go further negative.

[Tom Montalbano]

I've just had a flick through the SST anomaly charts for around this time since 2000. There certainly seems to be less of a positive anomaly in the area just to south of Greenland and Iceland than any Nov. at this time, actually since 2000. Here is the chart for the 18th Nov.2000:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-001119.gif

And now for 16th Nov.2008:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-081116.gif

Very similar positioning of anomalies as 2000 in the N.Atlantic, although not as extreme.

Interestingly the following month of December produced the most negative AO index in the last 50+ years, and was negative in both Jan and Feb although not to the same extreme. The NAO index was also negative in Dec. but positive for both Jan and Feb.

Will be interesting to see if the AO index reacts in a similar way (it is forecast to take a dip as we head towards December).

Only part of the picture for sure but it will be interesting to see how this winter pans out, with respect to the above elements.

Regards,

Tom.

[shuggee]

Good comparison there Tom - very interesting charts. Looking back upstream to the Pacific however, and it's a different ball game this year. I say that without any knowledge of how the PNA etc. would be affected with this year's set-up compared to 2000.

[Tom Montalbano]

Hi shuggee,

Yes the Pacific not looking as cold this year compared to 2000, with the anomalies in slightly different areas.

I suppose with all the cold now starting to build in Siberia and China and interacting with those mild Pacific anomalies, it might well lead to a raging Pacific arm of the jet, which might not be good news for us. But thats the wonder of all this teleconnection, jigsaw stuff, how does it all come together!

Regards,

Tom.

[summer blizzard]

In regardss to the two charts, there is less of a thermal gradiant in the Atlantic this year, and also the Pacific looks quite -PDO which also correlates to a -NAO, however there is also a corelation to a -PNA which is backed up by weak La Nina like conditions, so overall, quite a bit of ptential for a -AO and -NAO, but with a -PNA, this winter is also likely to be quite stormy, with more northerly incursions than east, though this can work to our favour when the -AO brings the Jet Stream south.

[Earthtrasher]

In regardss to the two charts, there is less of a thermal gradiant in the Atlantic this year, and also the Pacific looks quite -PDO which also correlates to a -NAO, however there is also a corelation to a -PNA which is backed up by weak La Nina like conditions, so overall, quite a bit of ptential for a -AO and -NAO, but with a -PNA, this winter is also likely to be quite stormy, with more northerly incursions than east, though this can work to our favour when the -AO brings the Jet Stream south.

I seem to recall that pooling of warm water around Newfoundland is associated with a synoptic setup which favours more powerful Greenland and Scandinavian High pressure cells.

That was a notable feature back in 1962/63.

We shall see.

[shuggee]

Have never really paid attention to these charts - but the UK SST charts and forecast based on the 18z GFS make for an interesting sight:

T+0

T+240

That must surely have an affect on the likelihood of colder incursions from the northwest over the coming 10 days?

[chionomaniac]

The warm anomaly east of Newfoundland is very persistent. I know that high pressure is more likely to form above, but does anyone know what is responsible for such a persistent localised warm pool?

[Iceberg]

Gulf stream back up caused by the persistant mid atlantic block slowing down the GS. IMO

The WE (Warm Eddies) are quite visable.

Still a +5C anomaly is pretty high.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag143.html

[chionomaniac]

Thanks Iceberg. So the block encourages the warm pooling which in turn encourages further blocking. No wonder it is so high.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, its quite a stark anomoly, and in recent years, we have observed such anomolies propigate eastward over time, so while i imagine we should be okay for the winter, i would be looking at quite a settled spring going off sea surface temperature anomolies alone.

[BIG LAD]

anyone have any info on current sst's and how the recent cold weather has affected them?

[phil nw.]

Hi BL,

You could try this link.

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/

Hope that helps.