Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends(2)

[Weather-history]

With the cooler SSTs off western African coast (north of equator that is), does that explain why Atlantic hurricanes have been largely absent so far?

[beng]

With the cooler SSTs off western African coast (north of equator that is), does that explain why Atlantic hurricanes have been largely absent so far?

I'm sure it's a factor - Accuweather also talk of our old favourite the Saharan dust playing a role too. That said I think we'd have expected a few more storms (tropical storms/depressions) to have formed further West in the early stages of the season - which hasn't happened either.

[John Cox]

Hi kippure,

Here is a link that goes back to SSTs's for the last few years:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

Has any one got a link to recent sst tempeture maps of the atlantic?

[summer blizzard]

I'm sure it's a factor - Accuweather also talk of our old favourite the Saharan dust playing a role too. That said I think we'd have expected a few more storms (tropical storms/depressions) to have formed further West in the early stages of the season - which hasn't happened either.

Weve had two named storms already, only running one named storm below average assuming that none form before the beggining of July.

[kippure]

Hi kippure,

Here is a link that goes back to SSTs's for the last few years:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

Thanks John

[beng]

Weve had two named storms already, only running one named storm below average assuming that none form before the beginning of July.

This is true, although one of those named storms I believe was quite controversial - the other thing is this year was predicted to be quite a bit above average (although obviously there's plenty of time for that to still happen).

[Zerouali lives]

With the cooler SSTs off western African coast (north of equator that is), does that explain why Atlantic hurricanes have been largely absent so far?

Maybe, but do these hurricaines not normally commence into August and early September?

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

That's a nice looking pair of cold anomalies.

[davehsug]

That's a nice looking pair of cold anomalies.

We now know what to blame if our winter goes t*ts up again! :lol:

Dave

[the_white_stuff]

The bering straight region is 7 °c warmer then average. I never seen an anomaly that large before.

[summer blizzard]

Current anomolies favour an anticyclonic north westerly regime around the 25th.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Current anomolies favour an anticyclonic north westerly regime around the 25th.

That deserves recognition....a good call SB.

Here

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

That deserves recognition....a good call SB.

Here

BFTP

Thanks, though i am was lucky that we hav'nt seen hurricane recurviture.

Anomolies currently favour a cyclonic south easterly around the 10th, though should a hurricane interact with the Jet Stream between the 1st and 10th, this could overide that signal.

Edited August 21, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Gavin P]

A cyclonic south-easterly? What, with low pressure towards Cornwall and southern Ireland?

[summer blizzard]

A cyclonic south-easterly? What, with low pressure towards Cornwall and southern Ireland?

Yes.

[Gavin P]

Like this sort of thing, then;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119930908.gif

[summer blizzard]

Yes, that is pretty much what i expect, though the low will be filling.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

19 August 2000

18 August 2001

24 August 2002

23 August 2003

21 August 2004

20 August 2005

19 August 2006

23 August 2007

North Atlantic only

* 2000 and 2001 are identical

* 2002 looks transitional

* 2003 and 2004 are identical

* 2005 and 2006 are identical

* 2007 looks transitional

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I can see why the meto aren't overplaying the NAO signal despite how favourable it was during June/July. That looks like ever strengthening La Nina to me and right on cue. The latter part of my summer forecast and into Autumn relies on the fact that La Nina will be showing its hand and MAY dominate.

BFTP

[kold weather]

Does look like a La nina there though the 3:4 region isn't nearly as cold as the eastern section, it still looks weak La nina based on the 3:4 section. For what its worth the SOI also responding now, averaging weakly positive which suggests La nina.

also one other interesting thing to note, look at the cool pooling present near Africa, that is a classic sign of a strong Azores high being present and surpressed to the south, looks similar to 2000 in that regard.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Does look like a La nina there though the 3:4 region isn't nearly as cold as the eastern section, it still looks weak La nina based on the 3:4 section. For what its worth the SOI also responding now, averaging weakly positive which suggests La nina.

also one other interesting thing to note, look at the cool pooling present near Africa, that is a classic sign of a strong Azores high being present and surpressed to the south, looks similar to 2000 in that regard.

you don't mean :huh:

Ed: drat, I think you do.

Edited August 24, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks, though i am was lucky that we hav'nt seen hurricane recurviture.

Anomolies currently favour a cyclonic south easterly around the 10th, though should a hurricane interact with the Jet Stream between the 1st and 10th, this could overide that signal.

Ho ho ho ho! SB keep watching....another good call beckons?!

Here

BFTP

[Iceberg]

La Nina is still finding it very difficult to break though.

Meto so far out on a limb still it's almost laughable. ECM much less keen particularly in 3.0 marginal in 3.4. A La Nina has been on the verge for the last 3 months now, but NCEP still calling neutral just. Any La Nina that does form is forecast to me weak at best, with negative anomalies lessening as we go into Winter.

[Glacier Point]

At this time when Global Angular Momentum values are at near record lows and the easterly phase QBO moves towards a possble record low in October / November, SSTAs are going to be just about as influential as they ever could be. Worth taking a tour of the 'highlights' at the moment..

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif

This is the most recent (weekly) lag, but the seasonal and monthly are similar.

La Nina continues to look weak and sporadic with cold water anomalies persistent in the eastern Pacific but less so well defined further west. Sub-surface waters continue to show cold anomalies between 50 and 150 metres which could well yet find their way to the surface given the easterly surface wind regime now in place, although this will be vulnerable to westerly surface wind development.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...xzmaps/Monthly/

The polar region continues to take the eye. Huge positive anomalies are showing up north of the Gulf of Alaska, which were possibly a key driver in weather patterns this summer (lots of blocking, -AO), and which look set to continue into the next few months given the strength of the anomaly.

In the Atlantic, the cold anomaly 30N in the eastern waters off Africa / Iberia look to have intensified of late, certainly over the last week or so. This is a signal for a mean trough with a displaced high pressure located over the UK. The warm anomalies around Greenland are a signal for a -NAO pattern in this couplet although at this time of year, this will be dependent on the AO to determine whether the mid-latitude block will migrate steadily eastwards or get 'sucked up' into the higher latitude block.

Meantime in the western Atlantic, cold anomalies seem to be reappearing off the eastern Seaboard, just as they did in the early Spring. For those wanting to see a true -NAO footprint to emerge, this is very good news, but needs to continue if you're signed up to a seasonal lag SSTA (impact on the season from 3 previous months).

Right now, signals for a prolonged period of anticyclonic weather.