Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends(2)

[MrAdam]

did you get any funny looks emerging from the sea with a thermometer?

hahahaha.

[SP1986]

hahahaha.

I'm using it for my dissertation in uni, so I probably did, but didnt notice

[summer blizzard]

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

The MEI value for June was -0.3, a almost 0.5 drop from May, we could be in a weak La Nina from July onwards.

[kold weather]

Yeah i think a weak La nina is probably going to turn up eventually, I think probably August is the most likely month to fall into the La nina category. In terms of SST's as I said before the shallow waters near the UK will alter super quickly depending on the set-up you currently have. The Atlantic is a different matter given how deep most of it.

[Glacier Point]

Well, if we were going to see La Nina happen, it was going to have to show its hand in July. Perhap signs that it is now starting to show.

Sub surface waters remain cold, particularly so in the central tropical Pacific.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...wkxzteq_anm.gif

The stronger easterly trades should have helped upwilling to occur in the last 10 days or so and there has been definate cooling.

Change in the Pacific SSTA over the 1st 12 days in July:

This places in weak to moderate Nina territory, already, and especially in regions 3 to 4.

Further upwelling seems likely and today's SSTA plot seems to substantiate this..

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

although recent Kelvin wave activity in the Pacific might help to inhibit upwelling a little (note however the last MJO wave to have weakened considerably though).

If this continues, the atmosphere will start to respond with La Nina response of ridging in the central Atlantic and consign our Summer to the dustbin.

[summer blizzard]

Well, if we were going to see La Nina happen, it was going to have to show its hand in July. Perhap signs that it is now starting to show.

Sub surface waters remain cold, particularly so in the central tropical Pacific.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_...wkxzteq_anm.gif

The stronger easterly trades should have helped upwilling to occur in the last 10 days or so and there has been definate cooling.

Change in the Pacific SSTA over the 1st 12 days in July:

This places in weak to moderate Nina territory, already, and especially in regions 3 to 4.

Further upwelling seems likely and today's SSTA plot seems to substantiate this..

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

although recent Kelvin wave activity in the Pacific might help to inhibit upwelling a little (note however the last MJO wave to have weakened considerably though).

If this continues, the atmosphere will start to respond with La Nina response of ridging in the central Atlantic and consign our Summer to the dustbin.

My personal opinion is that while we will see a steady drop during July, development will stall in August, with us not reaching a weak La Nina until September.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My personal opinion is that while we will see a steady drop during July, development will stall in August, with us not reaching a weak La Nina until September.

I think that development almost puts La Nina in the bag....and yes bye bye summer....though a window of opportunity may present itself early August for a week.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

So what are we looking at? An unsettled and relatively cool August, with the jet reallt cranking up quickly through September giving a very wet and stormy September and October?

[Polar Continental]

Is there any information on sea temps on here, are they lower than they have been in recent years and does it mean a possible knock on effect to our winter?

I asked this the other day but did not get a response, sorry if its in the wrong thread!

Hi HP,

Link below, Basically, lower than normal to the SW, higher than normal to the NW.

sea temperature anomalies

Paul

[HighPressure]

Hi HP,

Link below, Basically, lower than normal to the SW, higher than normal to the NW.

sea temperature anomalies

Paul

Thanks Paul much appreciated!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So what are we looking at? An unsettled and relatively cool August, with the jet reallt cranking up quickly through September giving a very wet and stormy September and October?

Yes, more of the same. I think we are in for a thoroughly we and cool autumn [not colder than normal]. I don't know about the jet cranking u as it has been doing pretty well up to now!!!

BFTP

[Rollo]

Yes, more of the same. I think we are in for a thoroughly we and cool autumn [not colder than normal]. I don't know about the jet cranking u as it has been doing pretty well up to now!!!

BFTP

I think you may be wrong BFTP, I would not be surprised to see the second half of August produce the only real settled spell of this so called summer.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think you may be wrong BFTP, I would not be surprised to see the second half of August produce the only real settled spell of this so called summer.

Hi Rollo

Lets hope you are right.....but have this sneaky suspicion it won't happen. I have earmarked early Aug for the window [my hols] and with La Nina coming!!!!!!

BFTP

Edited July 16, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gavin P]

Yeah, I meant cranking up as in becmong stormy, with gales and severe gales a lot earlier than we've been used to in many recent autumns.

Its funny you mention temperatures not being colder than average, Blast From The Past, I've got a suspicion that October and November could be pretty cold, with the Greeny High putting in a number of special guest apperances....

It appears to me, we may be going to experaince something of a "toned down" version of 1993?

Edited July 16, 2007 by Gavin P

[kold weather]

Its interesting that over the last 5 days the western part of the Pacific has warmed up nearly by 0.5 and this is the area that counts and the SOI has been extremely negative over the last week which will allow the waters to re-warm in the Nino 3.4 region after cooling 2 weeks ago. Once the -ve SOI pulses down again then the cooler waters may spread back westwards again.

[Iceberg]

The latest NCEP CPC evaluations still predict neutral ENSO for the rest of the month with a 50/50 La Nina by the end of the summer. Still to be convinced despite the colder sub waters.

[kippure]

Has any one got a link to recent sst tempeture maps of the atlantic?

[ScandiHigh]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

[kippure]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Thank you

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

I don't like it....mild wet winter beckons

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Just for a change!

[ScandiHigh]

I don't like it....mild wet winter beckons

BFTP

Why, I thought this setup favoured a negative NAO?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Why, I thought this setup favoured a negative NAO?

Hi SH

Look further afield and very clear signs of La Nina development...I have posted elsewhere [probably too much ] of the perturbation cycle and the La Nina phase. Moderate + La Nina will override NAO signal for sure and it ain't pretty.

BFTP

[The PIT]

I don't like it....mild wet winter beckons

BFTP

Whats new??

[Gavin P]

Hopefully, by winter, La Nina will be weakening (if it ever gets thats strong, of course)