Sea Surface Temperature And Sea Ice Trends(2)

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Just to illustrate how poor June has been (although not technically cold in the CET zone) - have a look at the North Sea Temp anomalies now - the huge warmth has gone - indeed there's even signs of a negative anomaly developing off eastern Scotland - this must increase the chance that the CET value for July could be around average (or even below) if synoptics allow (something that I don't think was really possible in June due to that N Sea warmth and the predominance of Easterly winds).

June had a cold airmass but CET was substantially above average - strange fact explained not by "rampant global warming" but by the high SSTAs and the radiator effect on the UK.

Now the SSTAs around UK have turned to cold if the airmass does not change, and the cold waters continue to push into the North Sea to further cool the waters, we would EXPECT average or minus values.

If we maintain negative SSTA values and cold airmass and still get +1-2 above average CET then this idea that local Sea Temps explains our high CETs is wrong, so a very interesting month ahead.

Edited July 2, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[shuggee]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Just to illustrate how poor June has been (although not technically cold in the CET zone) - have a look at the North Sea Temp anomalies now - the huge warmth has gone - indeed there's even signs of a negative anomaly developing off eastern Scotland - this must increase the chance that the CET value for July could be around average (or even below) if synoptics allow (something that I don't think was really possible in June due to that N Sea warmth and the predominance of Easterly winds).

Yes - just goes to show how shallow seas can change within a couple of weeks.

[Stu_London]

If SLP stays where it is forecast to stay then I cannot see the temps lifting much.

The North Sea anomoly got blown away like a frothy head on lager on a windy day. The relatively low SLP in that area has probably caused some upwelling also.

[summer blizzard]

I suspect that it is mainly upwelling that has caused the drop however it should also be noted that Baltic anomolies have also decreased as has the western Mediteranian.

[Glacier Point]

Reanalysis of the change in tropical Pacific SSTAs suggest that the MEI for June will likely actually increase.

This comes at a time when nearly all models appear to be forecasting a rapid decline towards a moderate strength La Nina by August / September. The UKMET seem to think we are already in La Nina judging by recent press releases and their reference point for June forecast.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/curre.../SST_table.html

There are substantial sub-surface sea temperatures for sure, and upwelling would rapidly transform the picture, which is what most of the models that build in sub-surface data suggest. Signs that easterly trade winds which would assist upwelling are also kicking in with the latest MJO wave stalling:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m....Last90days.gif

The models have been gun-ho on developing La Nina for some time but it has, up until now, not materialised (still puzzled by the UKMET declaration). Statistically this would not be time for any Nina of magnitude to develop, but who knows given the strength of the -ve sub surface anomalies. July looks to be high noon for La Nina. If it is to develop, they should show their hand soon - and rapidly at that.

GP

[summer blizzard]

If it does, i think that chances of a La Nina forming within the next six months are all but gone.

[kold weather]

GP, I suspect your right about the UKMO thinking LA Nina, its own model gave the AMJ anomaly at -1.6C which is way too cold, indeed that falls into the strong bracket of La nina. The model drops the La nina eventually down to -2 by September and that is just not going to happen and so its pretty obvious that that the model is both too agressive and too cold, they've been that way for the last 5 months to be fair and that will probably continue to occur.

[Glacier Point]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Couple of things to note at the moment:

Still no imminent sign of La Nina developing from surface values alone despite more favourable windflow over the tropics.

Those positive values south of Greenland really do seem to be motoring at present, no doubt aided by all that warm surface air and blocked conditions.

That cold pool in the central Atlantic is shifting bodily towards us on the Gulf Stream, could be interesting if it hits us towards the Autumn, keeping temperatures down somewhat - cool or average Autumn anyone ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Couple of things to note at the moment:

Still no imminent sign of La Nina developing from surface values alone despite more favourable windflow over the tropics.

Those positive values south of Greenland really do seem to be motoring at present, no doubt aided by all that warm surface air and blocked conditions.

That cold pool in the central Atlantic is shifting bodily towards us on the Gulf Stream, could be interesting if it hits us towards the Autumn, keeping temperatures down somewhat - cool or average Autumn anyone ?

Yes re autumn, more like what one would expect I reckon and falls in line with view. That warm sector I mentioned on another thread..don't know what to make of it except I don't like the wy it is expanding and intensifying and the effect it will have further down the line

BFTP.

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Couple of things to note at the moment:

Still no imminent sign of La Nina developing from surface values alone despite more favourable windflow over the tropics.

Those positive values south of Greenland really do seem to be motoring at present, no doubt aided by all that warm surface air and blocked conditions.

That cold pool in the central Atlantic is shifting bodily towards us on the Gulf Stream, could be interesting if it hits us towards the Autumn, keeping temperatures down somewhat - cool or average Autumn anyone ?

The main period for La Nina to develop is between November and March, thus any development right now will be slow however if the sub-surface anomolies are still present then a La Nina event is possible as we head towards winter.

My only issue with the big warm anomoly is that because the thermal gradiant in the south western Atlantic is weak, it will increase the thermal gradiant in the north western Atlantic, while it does'nt indicate anything particulaly mild, it does indicate more westerly weather to come with a weak Azores High towards Spain.

Yes, cold pools tend to be progressive fatures moving westwards rather than regressive, the main thing for me is that the cold pool to the east of the USA is still linked, this encourages further movement west and strengthening of the cold pool.

Nevrtheless, i do think that the current data points to a rather blow average first half to Autumn at least.

Edited July 7, 2007 by summer blizzard

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

That cold pool in the central Atlantic is shifting bodily towards us on the Gulf Stream, could be interesting if it hits us towards the Autumn, keeping temperatures down somewhat - cool or average Autumn anyone ?

The north sea has over recent days warmed from the south, from slight negative to slight positive anomaly.

I wonder if the cold pool waters moving up from the SW into the North Sea are in fact WARMER than the typical temperature there and have therefore will have a positive influence on the North Sea temperature anomaly rather than the expected negative one.

It is after all still warm water, just colder than average. The theme is waters around Britain currently appear to be moving SW/NE direction. So I'm going to hold off on predictions about the Autumn until the North sea makes a decision to cool or warm.

Edited July 7, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Gavin P]

Don't those very warm anomlies south of Greenland, when coupled with the cool stuff down the eastern sea board, actually promote a negative NAO? If you want a negative NAO, you want warm waters south of Greenland, don't you?

[summer blizzard]

Don't those very warm anomlies south of Greenland, when coupled with the cool stuff down the eastern sea board, actually promote a negative NAO? If you want a negative NAO, you want warm waters south of Greenland, don't you?

Yes, right now we have a classic tripole pattern.

However when you take into account the cold anomoly near us, this lends itself to drab weserly weather with Europe bearing the brunt of any cold incursions.

[kold weather]

Yeah thats a classic tripole, one of the best I've ever actually seen, if that doesn't give a -ve NAO Autumn nothing will!!!

I suspect we'll see a cooling off in Autumn and just a hint that early winter could feature some very cold weather, winters that featured similar set-ups have tended to December's with CET's between 2-3.5C, however stil ltime for that to change, 5-7 months can see that entire look reverse!

Right now I'd call for a below average Autumn though i want to see what happens over the rest of July and August, the next two months will hopefully cool things down quite nicely over western Europe back to more normal levels..worth noting that eastern Europe loosk the place to be getting heat...I forevcasted that back in early May, not quite as hot as I first thought as the jet has been just a touch to ostrong and zonal but trend is there.

As for La Nina, nothing showing at the surface however it has really strengthened in the sub-surface having dropped 2C in the last 3 weeks, its slowly shifting westwards as well so I strongly suspect we will have a La nina Autumn as well, might be a touch stronger then i first thoughts as well but should still fall pretty far short of strong.

Edited July 7, 2007 by kold weather

[Nick F]

I would assume the cold SST anomalies in the SW approaches and the Bay of Biscay westwards towards the Grand Banks are partly down to a persistence of stronger than normal Westerly winds over the surface of this area due to the Serly tracking jet over the last month or so. I'm not too sure of what any other underlying causes of cold upwelling in this area would be. I guess these cold anomalies will eventually have an ocean to atmosphere feed back later on given the normal lag period, so perhaps this may have an effect down the line for early autumn if these tripole anomaly patterns persist this summer, will be interesting to see if the NAO index is indeed skewed towards -ve in autumn, though a -ve NAO as we know doesn't always preclude below average temps over the UK at anytime of year.

[summer blizzard]

Yeah thats a classic tripole, one of the best I've ever actually seen, if that doesn't give a -ve NAO Autumn nothing will!!!

I suspect we'll see a cooling off in Autumn and just a hint that early winter could feature some very cold weather, winters that featured similar set-ups have tended to December's with CET's between 2-3.5C, however still time for that to change, 5-7 months can see that entire look reverse!

Right now I'd call for a below average Autumn though i want to see what happens over the rest of July and August, the next two months will hopefully cool things down quite nicely over western Europe back to more normal levels..worth noting that eastern Europe loosk the place to be getting heat...I forevcasted that back in early May, not quite as hot as I first thought as the jet has been just a touch to ostrong and zonal but trend is there.

As for La Nina, nothing showing at the surface however it has really strengthened in the sub-surface having dropped 2C in the last 3 weeks, its slowly shifting westwards as well so I strongly suspect we will have a La nina Autumn as well, might be a touch stronger then i first thoughts as well but should still fall pretty far short of strong.

Yes Kold, a definit tripole and provided the PDO does not become positive, the MEI does'nt reach moderate or the QBO does'nt suddenly turn westerly, then i can see this winter having a lot of potential.

A major contributor to the global pattern at the moment is the Asian monsoonal Ridge, which is quite strong this year and retrogressing east ahead of the monsoonal rains, during May and June it has been in the perfect position over the Arabian Gulf, whch has allowed eastern Europe to recieve some long strech southerlies, as this moves further east, i would expect more westerly weather during the second half of the summer in eastern Europe.

My call would also be for a below average Autumn, my preliminary data for September and October suggests CET outcomes of 10.7C and 8.4C, though i doubt i will back such low outcomes in the CET threads.

By La Nina Autumn, do you mean the Autumn averaging La nina or us reaching La Nina this Autumn because it requires a drop of 0.8 to reach La Nina, never mind averaging it.

[david16]

But a -ve NAO would be good news in avoiding the constant yucky cyclonic southerly/southwesterly/westerly stuff with temperatures such as +10C to +13C (+5C to +8C usually at night) for days and weeks on end most of the winter we normally suffer from these days because we are stuck between the dreaded semi-permanent azores high/icelandic low combination, with only the brief 2 day northerly (if that) as respite.

A strong -ve NAO doesn't automaticaly mean a 1962 winter or a 1979 in this day and age, but I wonder if we can still even now receive some prolonged wintry spells in winter of widesperead heavy snow. It would be nice to see weather systems moving westward from the continent in January like of old.

Edited July 8, 2007 by david16

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Off topic Warning!

Not sure what board for this one, but it's kind of interesting given the recent NE progress of our Mid-Atlantic cold anomaly

(Coming to a beach near you) Rubber ducks lost in the Pacific that have helped researchers chart the ocean currents.

(£50 a duck bounty if you find one!)

Edited July 8, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Are the sea temps around the uk colder than they were this time last year, due to the cooler summer so far?

Does this give a potential for a cooler winter than last?

testtesttest

[Bobby]

Not sure, I'd imagine they'd be warmer due to the exceptionally warm summer 2006, autumn and winter we've had. This spring was also very warm and our summer has been above average so far.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Not sure, I'd imagine they'd be warmer due to the exceptionally warm summer 2006, autumn and winter we've had. This spring was also very warm and our summer has been above average so far.

Fair point :lol:

[Anti-Mild]

Are the sea temps around the uk colder than they were this time last year, due to the cooler summer so far?

Does this give a potential for a cooler winter than last?

testtesttest

The North Sea is probably a little warmer than it was at this time last year but it doesn't matter as it's so shallow it could change in no time at all.

Things are definitely cooler on the West of the UK but again this will all be different come December.

I would say that we will get a cooler winter than last year if for no other reason than it surely can't be that mild a winter for a long time, AGW or not. The MetO's NAO forecast should give us a few clues as to what they expect and that should be due in the next week or so. Early indications point towards a -ve NAO over the winter which would be good for us, although it would only be one piece of the jigsaw, and because it's a forecast it shouldn't be taken as gospel.

[summer blizzard]

If the NAO state is backed up by a negative AO, then yes, the chances for a colder winter are high, and yes the current anomolies will change but that should be a good thing, the current anomolies actually favour a weak thermal gradiant in the western Atlantic (weak Azores High), which in winter could be a potential spoiler however until November comes, we can't really say what the anomolies favour.

[SP1986]

Interesting to note that whilst open sea surface temperatures are cooler, the coastal sea surface temperatures (1-2 miles out to sea) especially near the western mainland coast are still very warm, I took a delve into the Irish sea on a cloudy day last week and recorded a widespread coastal water temperature of 19°C with occassional anomalies of 20°C around breakwaters - very interesting

[Stu_London]

Interesting to note that whilst open sea surface temperatures are cooler, the coastal sea surface temperatures (1-2 miles out to sea) especially near the western mainland coast are still very warm, I took a delve into the Irish sea on a cloudy day last week and recorded a widespread coastal water temperature of 19°C with occassional anomalies of 20°C around breakwaters - very interesting

did you get any funny looks emerging from the sea with a thermometer?