Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[MR EXTREMES]

i dont know if you read this steve b but its rather intresting.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/02/solar-cycle-24-update/

[SteveB]

i dont know if you read this steve b but its rather intresting.

http://wattsupwithth...ycle-24-update/

Yep I have been keeping up to date with the latest developments of Cycle24. It is very interesting as you say, & while alot of it is way over my head, it does seem as though we are heading for a Dalton style Minimum.

[Gray-Wolf]

Suns not staying blank long recently and also the recent glut in solar outbursts (resulting in widespread Aurora) seem to be telling us that he's now raring to go!

[MR EXTREMES]

Suns not staying blank long recently and also the recent glut in solar outbursts (resulting in widespread Aurora) seem to be telling us that he's now raring to go!

id like to be as polite as i could possibly be but gray wolf id love to hear your expert opion in a thread where most of us enjoy.

the suns activity has dropped alot since january.

Suns not staying blank long recently and also the recent glut in solar outbursts (resulting in widespread Aurora) seem to be telling us that he's now raring to go!

also nothing extreme has happened on the sun for years now just flurries of activity which is not good enough to bring us out of this minimum neither is it likely.

perhapes reading the nasa website might help after all you seem to have evidence in every thread http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif

[Claudia]

And is the sun a he !?

[pottyprof]

And is the sun a he !?

No.. Deffo a she at the moment................

Suns not staying blank long recently and also the recent glut in solar outbursts (resulting in widespread Aurora) seem to be telling us that he's now raring to go!

Well its not going to plan.. Increases in output yes.. Far from predicted stuff tho.

Sorry GW.. were you hoping for some total meltdown stuff???

[MR EXTREMES]

today there is numbered spot but its already decaying intresting because they have been decaying fast in the last few weeks.

although this means very little because our sun is very unpredictable as nasa have found out.

this minimum is very much full on,

and the next cycle could be very exciting or unexciting depending on your favours.

this is the lowest sun activity ive seen in my life time and would be very exciting the longer it continues the effect it has on our earth.

although this is only the start so more time to watch to see how things progress.

Edited April 13, 2010 by badboy657

[Gray-Wolf]

And is the sun a he !?

Apparently so. the moon is a 'she' and the sun a 'he'. I suppose you don't need to go along with tradition though!!

[Claudia]

I had read people saying (so long ago cant remember who) that there was no direct correlation between the suns activity and the whether. But as the sun was so inactive I had thought it might be a cold winter which it was and with the recent activity I am wondering if it will be a hot summer !? Im trying to grow watermelons this year slightly bias !

[jonboy]

I had read people saying (so long ago cant remember who) that there was no direct correlation between the suns activity and the whether. But as the sun was so inactive I had thought it might be a cold winter which it was and with the recent activity I am wondering if it will be a hot summer !? Im trying to grow watermelons this year slightly bias !

Hi Claudia

Some do say that there is no correlation between the sun's activity and our weather. In my view that view is wrong and it is a direct result of a quiet sun that has led to the shift in weather/climate pattern that has seen a southerly shift of the jet stream which has led to the cold winter. Does this mean a hot summer unfortunately not. Although the sun appears more active, in relative terms to the last ten/twenty years, then it is still very quiet.

My opinion is that the sun is akey driver in our Climate and therefore affects our weather and the pattern we are now seeing develope will not include hot summers.

Good luck with the melons!!

[MR EXTREMES]

Hi Claudia

Some do say that there is no correlation between the sun's activity and our weather. In my view that view is wrong and it is a direct result of a quiet sun that has led to the shift in weather/climate pattern that has seen a southerly shift of the jet stream which has led to the cold winter. Does this mean a hot summer unfortunately not. Although the sun appears more active, in relative terms to the last ten/twenty years, then it is still very quiet.

My opinion is that the sun is akey driver in our Climate and therefore affects our weather and the pattern we are now seeing develope will not include hot summers.

Good luck with the melons!!

yep i agree with this post theres certainly some kind of connection what connection is the million dollar question lol.

it must have some kind of an effect be intresting to see how the dalton and mm how this ice age happened.

as for water melons i love them oh yes no reason why you cant.

[Gray-Wolf]

We seem to have had a low energy sun for years now yet Jan,Feb,Mar were globally the hottest ever recorded.......... Either the solar delay is so long that we get least benenfit when it is at it's most active or all the stuff about the warming from the 80's being solar is wrong (otherwise we wouldn't be midst a global heatwave with (as some say) a Dalton minimum type sun).

[Typhoon John]

I think in the short term the inactive sun increases the chances of weather patterns that support cold Winters in the Northern hemisphere rather than having some sort of direct cooling effect. Longer term the arguments seem to be about less energy coming from an inactive sun which over a longer period results in cooling.

It's quite clear the hot months at the start of the year were due to the strong El Nino releasing heat in the tropics. It'll be interesting to see what happens once the El Nino subsides. For the theory about the sun to stay credible I think we'd need to start seeing some form of global cooling show its hand.

But I guess that's for another thread.

Edited April 13, 2010 by fozi999

[MR EXTREMES]

We seem to have had a low energy sun for years now yet Jan,Feb,Mar were globally the hottest ever recorded.......... Either the solar delay is so long that we get least benenfit when it is at it's most active or all the stuff about the warming from the 80's being solar is wrong (otherwise we wouldn't be midst a global heatwave with (as some say) a Dalton minimum type sun).

yeah as you keep saying not convinced gray wolf even if you are.

[mettalfabrik]

nice CME from the 13 april solar activity is on the increase so far this year, 90 day mean 10.7cm flux is 82 which is the highest for some years

:Issued: 2010 Apr 14 1225 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

A CME linked to the eruption of a polar crown filament was detected on

April 13 by LASCO and other coronagraphs. It is partially halo, with a

main propagation direction to the North of the ecliptic plane. There is

a risk that the southern flank of the CME crosses the Earth, triggering

enhanced geomagnetic activity, not before late April 16 or more likely

on April 17.

Edited April 14, 2010 by blackdown

[joggs]

nice CME from the 13 april solar activity is on the increase so far this year, 90 day mean 10.7cm flux is 82 which is the highest for some years

:Issued: 2010 Apr 14 1225 UTC

:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

A CME linked to the eruption of a polar crown filament was detected on

April 13 by LASCO and other coronagraphs. It is partially halo, with a

main propagation direction to the North of the ecliptic plane. There is

a risk that the southern flank of the CME crosses the Earth, triggering

enhanced geomagnetic activity, not before late April 16 or more likely

on April 17.

http://spaceweather....schfnl69hph6dp4

Hi threr blackdown and everybody! been a keen reader(not to knowledgable mind) of this thread over the past months. any ideas when the sun is going to awake properly?

[mettalfabrik]

hi there Joggs

current predictions give solar cycle 24 max as sometime in 2013ish,albeit at a much reduced level than the last few solar max,s

since the sixties it is known that the sun has been on the wane ,since this is when seroius measurment of the sun,s output began because of of man,s forays into space as solar radiation will play havoc with electronic\electical systems and is of course harmful to humans

wether this period will give us even more reduced activity in coming solar cycles is the subject of some debate, as you will find if you trawl through this vast thread which began in 2006 then thought to be solar minimum

as for this affecting the climate it is know that past cold periods do coincide with low sunspot activity although human capacity to chuck multiple spanners into the works may upset this,who knows we will have wait and see but for me personally those summers of temps touching 90c seem an awful long time ago now

good link here for further info

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

[joggs]

hi there Joggs

current predictions give solar cycle 24 max as sometime in 2013ish,albeit at a much reduced level than the last few solar max,s

since the sixties it is known that the sun has been on the wane ,since this is when seroius measurment of the sun,s output began because of of man,s forays into space as solar radiation will play havoc with electronic\electical systems and is of course harmful to humans

wether this period will give us even more reduced activity in coming solar cycles is the subject of some debate, as you will find if you trawl through this vast thread which began in 2006 then thought to be solar minimum

as for this affecting the climate it is know that past cold periods do coincide with low sunspot activity although human capacity to chuck multiple spanners into the works may upset this,who knows we will have wait and see but for me personally those summers of temps touching 90c seem an awful long time ago now

good link here for further info

http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

Cheers for that blackdown, plenty to read and observe. I look forward to many more inputs from everyone in this which to me is quite an exciting time!?!? much appreciated

[SteveB]

There is an arguement that we are only a few months away from cycle24's maximum.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

P.S, use google to translate in to English

[MR EXTREMES]

There is an arguement that we are only a few months away from cycle24's maximum.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

P.S, use google to translate in to English

oh my steve minimum and some volcanic activity i think i once see something about solar activity being connected in some way with volcanic activity.

so earth quakes volcanic activity and low sun activity bit worring but very exciting.

ofcoarse though loss of life is not good and my heart goes out to those who have lost life.

edit: just in today http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

Edited April 15, 2010 by badboy657

[SteveB]

It is very interesting times as you say.

Continuation of global warming, or a new era of global cooling

[Claudia]

All very interesting I will catch up with the links latter though. Very happy to hear about the water melons http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/yahoo.gif I had my reservations.

I had noticed that there seemed to be alot of earthquakes recently and wondered if they could set each other off or something so it was interesting to hear about the sun connection !

[SteveB]

The Sun is blank & flux is current 75.

The Sun is blank & flux is current 75.

[MR EXTREMES]

The Sun is blank & flux is current 75.

The Sun is blank & flux is current 75.

there could be some activity on the far side but really is very strange that flux is going down each time activity drops.

well so much for gray wolfs ramp up lol.

oh my this is getting very exciting are we going to see the minimum go deeper watch this space:whistling:,

maybe not but i dont think its about to hit record highs.

anyway solar activity and climate,

i noticed this writen on cycle24 website:

its inregards to solar halos,

thease are caused by ice crystals in the upper atmosphere,

are solar halos more regular in minimums ?

and i know thease crystals are up there all the time but if they increase during minimums then surely this fragments solar input or even reflects more into space.

also add in the theory that cosmic particles create more cloud surely a mixture of many things would be enough to impact our earths climate.

if you think during a minimum then more particles including ice crystals + cosmic rays,

during a maximum less ice crystals less cosmic rays more heat.

just an idear.

BBelow is a pic

ture I took Thursday morning of a nice Halo around the sun. At first I was inspecting som

ething on my antenna tower when I noticed the halo and decided to grab my camera. The halo is caused by the refraction of sunlight through cloud suspended ice crystals.elow is a picture I took Thursday morning of a nice Halo around the sun. At first I was inspecting something on my antenna tower when I noticed the halo and decided to grab my camera. The h

alo is caused by the refraction of sunlight through cloud suspended ice crystals.

Below is a picture I took Thursday morning of a nice Halo around the sun. At first I was inspecting something on my antenna tower when I noticed the halo and decided to grab my camera. The halo is caused by the refraction of sunlight through cloud suspended ice crystals.

- Below is a picture I took Thursday morning of a nice Halo around the sun. At first I was inspecting something on my antenna tower when I noticed the halo and decided to grab my camera. The halo is caused by the refraction of sunlight through cloud suspended ice crystals.- Below is a picture I took Thursday morning of a nice Halo around the sun. At first I was inspecting something on my antenna tower when I noticed the halo and decided to grab my camera. The halo is caused by the refraction of sunlight through cloud suspended ice crystals.

Edited April 16, 2010 by badboy657

[SteveB]

2 days blank, solar flux still at 75

Activity showing up on the stereo behind though. Should be on the visibe disc tomorrow