2007 set to be the world's hottest year yet

[kold weather]

Globally i suspect this wil lbe in the top 10 hottest years, quite impressive given we now are very close to developing a La nina as well, I wouldn't be suprised if its quite a bit higher up the ranking then that either!

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the NOAA have declared the winter of 2006/07 the warmest globally since their records began (in 1880) so we're off to a flying start!

[parmenides3]

NOAA summary for February & Winter here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear.../feb/feb07.html

:)P

[Thundery wintry showers]

Pretty much as I expected really; global synoptics, with less bias towards a pattern of warm anomalies over NH landmasses and cold anomalies over the oceans, gave rise to a less exceptional temperature in February- but it was still the sixth warmest on record.

January 2007 was outstandingly warm globally, little doubt about it.

I'm not sure about how warm 2007 will turn out to be, globally speaking. The Met Office/UEA, if I remember rightly, overestimated the global temperature for 2003, and probably slightly underestimated for 2005, then overestimated for 2006, so their forecasting methods are not bulletproof. Global temperature is an incredibly difficult thing to predict as it depends on various factors such as changes in atmospheric circulation, El Nino, La Nina etc.

[noggin]

Well the NOAA have declared the winter of 2006/07 the warmest globally since their records began (in 1880) so we're off to a flying start!

When they say "Winter", what do they mean? It seems a silly question maybe, but when it is Winter in some parts of the world, it is Summer in other parts. I gather Australia has had record breaking snow and that parts of India have had unusual amounts of snow for 2 years in a row now.

So are they talking about specific months in a specific area of the world or what?

Genuine question, BTW.

[Gray-Wolf]

When they say "Winter", what do they mean? It seems a silly question maybe, but when it is Winter in some parts of the world, it is Summer in other parts. I gather Australia has had record breaking snow and that parts of India have had unusual amounts of snow for 2 years in a row now.

So are they talking about specific months in a specific area of the world or what?

Genuine question, BTW.

I think they would be right to use the season where they are based (USA) and so winter is the northern winter.

[summer blizzard]

El Nino has gone, the March MEI value was 0.1, i suspect that against a ten year mean, Q1 2007 will have been above, Q2 2007 will be average to slightly above, Q3 2007 will be average and Q4 2007 will be slightly below the ten year mean, giving a yearly figure of 0.5C above the ten year mean, with a 0.25C margin of error, therefore i believe that 2007 will not be the warmest year on record.

[Gray-Wolf]

El Nino has gone, the March MEI value was 0.1, i suspect that against a ten year mean, Q1 2007 will have been above, Q2 2007 will be average to slightly above, Q3 2007 will be average and Q4 2007 will be slightly below the ten year mean, giving a yearly figure of 0.5C above the ten year mean, with a 0.25C margin of error, therefore i believe that 2007 will not be the warmest year on record.

I'd read that the Meto/Uni of East Anglia were always within +/- 0.07 degrees C of the final figures and it is they who called it so I'm tempted to believe them on it!

[Bobby]

Anyone seen today's Daily Express? They're on top form again with their sensationalist headlines, saying that Britain is to "bake in 100 degree heat" this summer and that it will be the warmest ever. It's just not possible to predict such a thing from months away. Must be getting their stories from Piers Cobryn again.

Sensationalist headlines like this make the average Joe six pack sceptical of global warming.

[Paranoid]

Didn't the Daily Express and the sun say this last year and it never happened? And besides, this year doesn't seem to have been as warm as Q1 2006, after all wasn't it 25c in April last year?

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyone seen today's Daily Express? They're on top form again with their sensationalist headlines, saying that Britain is to "bake in 100 degree heat" this summer and that it will be the warmest ever. It's just not possible to predict such a thing from months away. Must be getting their stories from Piers Cobryn again.

Sensationalist headlines like this make the average Joe six pack sceptical of global warming.

I'd had a little side bet with my better half as to when, during the current dry/sunny spell, the Meto/Uni East Anglia predictions would surface and be corrupted.

So far a prediction is concerned the global temp forcast is based on the same indicators as the seasonal forcasts by the meto and they (historically) have been very close to the mark.

In so far as a countries forcasts is concerned I am certainly not holding my breath!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Above the longterm mean but globally too many record cold events occurring this year IMO. As for the UK...traditional summer is favourite for me.

BFTP

[Angel15]

Above the longterm mean but globally too many record cold events occurring this year IMO. As for the UK...traditional summer is favourite for me.

BFTP

I hope you are right - I hate scorching summers!

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it'll all depend on the extension of the continental 'high' pressure. If it links with the Azores high for any length of time we could be in for precipitation deficits in the SE yet again and if it happens at the suns strongest then the cities will really find out what a' hot night' is!

Above the longterm mean but globally too many record cold events occurring this year IMO. As for the UK...traditional summer is favourite for me.

BFTP

???

I thought we'd just emerged from the 'hottest' winter since records began? You would expect cold displacement across many regions as the warm heads north (at speed) but as spring progresses the potential will change to African plumes across Europe (and very interesting if plume meets plunge I'd wager)

[Angel15]

I think it'll all depend on the extension of the continental 'high' pressure. If it links with the Azores high for any length of time we could be in for precipitation deficits in the SE yet again and if it happens at the suns strongest then the cities will really find out what a' hot night' is!

*Angel makes mental note to buy air con unit before they all sell out again*

[Bobby]

Didn't the Daily Express and the sun say this last year and it never happened? And besides, this year doesn't seem to have been as warm as Q1 2006, after all wasn't it 25c in April last year?

Well, Q1 this year was much warmer than last year Q1. May reach 25c later this week too.

Edited April 10, 2007 by Magpie

[kold weather]

Its har dto call. Globally the first quater of the year has been dominated by the now decaying El nino (hence why the global tmeps are slowly dropping away as the colder sub-surface temps start to emerge.) and also intrestingly the very dominant AO signal in the N.Hemisphere whjich has led to a globally way above average Jan and it was stil la styorng eonugh force to over-ride the then decaying El nino, and this was also helped by a very slack global wave pattern as the waves constantly decayed as they hit a cold pool of water near SE Asia.

Set-up has changed recently as the colder sub-surface waters surfaces in the Pacific tohugh the AO is still flipping about and averaging slightly positive and obviously there is still a large positive anomaly left to get rid off and so while the La nina signal is starting to show stronger, the other factors still are to ostrong and over-ride it it seems.