Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Day 5 Discussion


Paul Sherman

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Hi Guys, currently about 1130pm here at the Big Texan in Amarillo, tomorrow looks nothing short of awesome, this could be quite a big day on current model outputs. Insane Cape and pretty exceptional shear, tomorrow should see plenty of supercells and great photo opportunities. We are currently targeting Dodge City for lunch, and then see how the day goes, but with hodographs showing insane opportunities and Supercell Parametres at about 99.8%. This could be an amazing day for our team, we will be updating all throughout the evening via text messages.

    Feel free to chat away.

    Paul Sherman & Netweather Team

    Miles so far # 1,518 Miles

    Wildlife Hit # None :)

    States Chases # 1 (Texas)

    post-24-1178254287_thumb.png

    --------------------------------------------------------

    Really hope the guys are up for this :) After tomorrows risk, Saturday and Sunday sees quite a big risk before another 2 days after that. Chase Heaven !!

    DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0351 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

    VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...

    MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WRN U.S.

    LONGWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SUN AND MON/...BUT

    DIFFER BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE

    PROGRESSIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE

    TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE SRN/

    CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP

    LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING DAY 4 /SUN

    MAY 6TH/ ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING

    INTO DAY 5 /MON MAY 7TH/...BUT MAINLY ACROSS W TX.

    BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT

    BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE

    WEATHER THREAT AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS.

    ..PETERS.. 05/03/2007

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Replies 59
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants

    Good luck for the impending chase, sounds like it's gonna be a good one.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    certainly looks promising for you and the guys Paul. hopefully the risks prove right and some decent storms manifest. stay safe :)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Yes Paul, after so much uncertainty looks like exceptional conditions are now showing, dewpoints over 70 and cape shooting

    towards 4000-4500J/kg.. A huge possability of bagging ya first tornado, and increasing chances that it'll be a biggun',

    hope its an EF5...

    SPC upgraded to moderate could even go high me thinks!!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL
  • Location: Cambridgeshire Fens. 3m ASL

    Good luck guys and girls. Looks like today could be a good one.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Much less low level directional wind shear forecast for today than yesterday. 300hPa vorticity charts suggest storms may not fire all the way down to southern Texas today but amarillo should be OK. You could be chasing a little late in the day though so you might want to head north.

    Saturday looks like a fairly widespread outbreak of storms. Further east than today and todays convection and cloud may cut down instability in some key areas. Oklahoma Texas border may well be a good starting place.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    .

    Public Severe Weather OutlookPrint Version ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 040925 COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-041730- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0425 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALL STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT INDICATE THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..HART.. 05/04/2007

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Looking like a fantastic few days to come.

    I'm just looking at the GFS for Saturday afternoon over the pond..

    Certainly a large increase in the Jet for the target area.

    post-1669-1178278076_thumb.png

    I bet it will feel like being in a Turkish bath. Look at the temps and dew points.....

    post-1669-1178278219_thumb.png post-1669-1178278201_thumb.png

    Wind convergence for the target area..

    post-1669-1178278508_thumb.png

    A small amount of CAPE... :rolleyes: B)

    post-1669-1178278559_thumb.png

    And not a lot to stop it once the touch paper is lit..

    post-1669-1178278660_thumb.png

    All we need now is for the models to be right.. B)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

    Have fun guys!...

    BTW am no good at USA geography :rolleyes: - how far are you from Houston? miles I bet? ..just wondered...shall look forward to posts B)

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    They're roughly about 530 mile from Houston PB..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Latest from NWS/SPC mod risk moves alittle further west into Colorado and a little further North too.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0744 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007

    VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER

    PARTS OF EASTERN CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK...AND

    SOUTHWEST NEB...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO SD...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA AND MS...

    ...CENTRAL PLAINS...

    MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO

    ROTATE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG

    UPPER JET MAX NOW DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION

    WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.

    MEANWHILE...RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST

    CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS

    THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS

    ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK...WHICH

    WILL SPREAD/MIX QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO KS TODAY. STRONG SURFACE

    HEATING IS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS REGION TODAY AFTER MORNING LOW

    CLOUDS BURN OFF...RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG

    AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO WESTERN OK. EASTERLY

    LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO ADVECT 50S DEWPOINTS WESTWARD ACROSS MOST

    OF EASTERN CO BY MID AFTERNOON.

    PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT FIRST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE

    FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CO NEAR PUB. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED

    BY EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR

    PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME

    SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

    ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING

    AS STORMS SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST

    NEB. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS STORMS

    MOVE INTO MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

    FARTHER SOUTH...SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST

    KS NEAR DDC SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS

    OCCURRING OVER THIS REGION THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A

    STRENGTHENING CAP AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL

    THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON WHETHER THE CAP CAN WEAKEN

    SUFFICIENTLY DOWN THE DRYLINE FOR INITIATION THIS EVENING. HIGHEST

    CONFIDENCE IS FOR STORMS TO FORM NEAR WARM FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE

    POINT NEAR DDC AND TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST

    SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY AND MORE THAN

    SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY

    LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. RIGHT NOW IT

    APPEARS THAT DEVELOPMENT DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO OK WILL BE MUCH MORE

    ISOLATED WITH A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. ANY STORMS THAT CAN

    FORM IN THIS AREA WILL POSE A RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. PARTS OF

    OK AND NORTHWEST TX MAY SEE CONTINUED THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LARGE

    SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEADING TO

    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    Thought I'd add this from kfor. Now the team are in kfor's broadcast area, there's a good chance we could see storms that or team will be on, especially if there are tornadoes possible. Kfor are one of only a handful of TV stations in the states that chase live..

    http://www.kfor.com/global/video/WorldNowA...playerVersion=7

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Just looking at current satellite imagery, an area of cloud in southeast CO near Limon looks like the seeding for today's storm chase target, the most likely area for these to fire to severe levels (after 2 pm CDT or 1 pm MDT which is 19z) would be near the CO-KS border so would advise mid-day position near Garden City or a little further west.

    The storms that develop today should remain severe well into the overnight before settling down, then Saturday's action should be from central KS through central OK towards the region between Wichita Falls TX and DFW. Probably Norman or Enid OK, Medicine Lodge KS area would be a good starting point.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Sundays prospects are a little further south.

    Reports of Fog across the region may hold back storms till later in the day.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    Team are now leaving Amarillo - Time is 9:30am. Wish us luck!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Good luck and bag a few, Potty that link ya put up, it goes live when impending storms arrive ?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    This has a real look of being a bigge IMo over the next few days, things are very good looking and I'd be suprised if there weren't a lot of tornadoes over the next couple of days, really great chances for you guys out there.

    Firstly you have a strong jet stream arching in from the Pacific digging underneath a upper low to the NW, which is the base of the pattern for the next 3-4 days and which offers some really tasty options. As Brick said the low level shear has been decreased a touch from yesterday for the set-up today but make no mistakes about it, the shear should be good enough for some pretty decent tornadoes I reckon.

    Cape is massive over Texas and OK, the only slight issue is that the area of highest cape is just to the north of the best of the shear, but even in places like OK 3000kjs of cape is EASILY possible if the cloud can break up, which I'll talk about in a minute, there really is huge chances here IF everything can slot in to place, its not quite perfect but there are similatries to big events in the past. Worth noting though that the WRF has HUGE CAPE present, in fact just under 5000!!!!

    Soundings from the 12z suggests the convective temp wil lbe around 26C (close to 80F) and that this should be reached pretty easily today, esp given tmeps are already upto 60-65F and given there is still some cloud present once this starts to break up as the dryline edges its way eastwards slowly. Dew-points are progged to be up around 55-70F with the dew-points dropping away rapidly to the west of the dryline. The models may be a touch high and also looking at the dew-points it looks like the dryline is actually just a touch further east then the models progged on the 0z run, not much but a little.

    Right now there is a fair amount of cloud present over the target areas as the air is still fairly moist to the east of the drier airmass however saying that the models are progging quite a rapid dry out that should be on its way now, with current trends showing a drop of 2-4% in RH per hour. The cloud that is currently present over KA and eastern OK should, like it has done over West OK steadily erode away as the drier airmass comes in.

    Also importantly ther eis some capping present which should prevent any early cells going up and reducing the instablity, so when the storms do form they should have real clout and could well remain fairly discrete, esp the further west given the drier airmass and RH progged at around 30-40%.

    Intitation could be fairly late in the day given the CINH that is present but when it does get going it could be quite impressive.

    to all of you, good luck today, this could be a really big one if it al lcomes together and even for you Paul this may be one of the best setu-sp you've ever seen, though that may only last 2 days...

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS

    THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE

    DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL

    PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

    EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO

    WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS

    WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

    NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

    SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

    THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTH

    DAKOTA.

    A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS

    OF THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND

    BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON

    AND EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE

    SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS VICINITY OF THE

    SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREA. INCREASINGLY STRONG

    AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL

    TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID

    TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG

    DAYTIME HEATING AND RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN

    EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN

    OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE

    EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE

    AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA DURING

    THE EVENING. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

    ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS

    PANHANDLE. ALL STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE LIKELY TO BECOME

    SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND

    TORNADOES. SIGNIFICANT VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT

    INDICATE THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

    THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER

    SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER

    RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

    ..HALES.. 05/04/2007

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    We are sitting in Dodge City at the moment, after a testing morning. One of the fuses blew on our power converters and the spares which we'd been provided with didn't fit. Due to this we essentially lost all GPS and Baron's data. We eventually found replacements in Dumas but lost over an hour in time. WE are now contemplating moving elsewhere as the dryline has passed the area. Just going through data at the moment.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants

    Sorry to hear about that. Hope that this doesn't interfere too much with plans for the rest of the day.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

    I'd think about heading further north or east.. But that's just my thinking.. :drinks:

    post-1669-1178312098_thumb.jpg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...