Overhype on global warming

[jethro]

Nice try Jethro but you'll not find me, for one, claiming weather is the same as climate.

No, for me it's the trend over time (here, but more importantly, regionally, hemispherically, globally) that's gradually convinced me - the trend over my adult life. It would be a cooling over time that would reverse my thought - I can't see that happening, but we'll see.

One quick question, what cause synoptics?

I'm not trying anything Dev so stop being so antagonistic. It is a genuine question with genuine reasons behind it, ok? Synoptics are not caused by climate change, synoptics experienced in this country existed before AGW, they have negative and positive cycles entirely devoid of any AGW connection.

How about everyone else? Does our recent hot summers and warm winters make the AGW case more believable?

[noggin]

Fact is, and I lived through the seventies and was a weather follower and recorder then as now, that there simply wasn't as much talk about a cooling trend

There certainly is more talk about the warming than there was about the cooling. Things were different then. People generally were much less aware of the environment. But talking about stuff more doesn't make it more "likely", IYKWIM.

Did you believe in the impending cooldown, Devonian?

[Devonian]

I'm not trying anything Dev so stop being so antagonistic. It is a genuine question with genuine reasons behind it, ok? Synoptics are not caused by climate change, synoptics experienced in this country existed before AGW, they have negative and positive cycles entirely devoid of any AGW connection.

How about everyone else? Does our recent hot summers and warm winters make the AGW case more believable?

Not antagonistic, more trying, and failing it seems, to inject a little humour - besides you well know the connotations of the word 'believe' and that it's provocative. And you also know that those who think there is significant anthro climate change going on know the difference between weather and climate and that they don't talk about 'proof'.

I am genuinely surprised you didn't also tick off Darkman for being, erm just a tad, antagonistic.

There certainly is more talk about the warming than there was about the cooling. Things were different then. People generally were much less aware of the environment. But talking about stuff more doesn't make it more "likely", IYKWIM.

Did you believe in the impending cooldown, Devonian?

Noggin, I don't 'believe' in anything - learnt years ago not to use the word because, eventually, some nurk will call you religious if you do.

I would have thought it's clear I don't think we will see a cool down? I do think the concept of climate forcings is 'right' and I do think the forcings are going one way. It's, just, possible the Sun might cool enough to provide offset, and i do ponder if aerosols might again cool some areas, but there is precious little evidence to think this is likely. I do think this kind of future is possible though, some downs but more ups.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Devonian

[jethro]

Not antagonistic, more trying, and failing it seems, to inject a little humour - besides you well know the connotations of the word 'believe' and that it's provocative. And you also know that those who think there is significant anthro climate change going on know the difference between weather and climate and that they don't talk about 'proof'.

I am genuinely surprised you didn't also tick off Darkman for being, erm just a tad, antagonistic.

Noggin, I don't 'believe' in anything - learnt years ago not to use the word because, eventually, some nurk will call you religious if you do.

I would have thought it's clear I don't think we will see a cool down? I do think the concept of climate forcings is 'right' and I do think the forcings are going one way. It's, just, possible the Sun might cool enough to provide offset, and i do ponder if aerosols might again cool some areas, but there is precious little evidence to think this is likely. I do think this kind of future is possible though, some downs but more ups.

Yes, I understand fully the connotations of the word believe, my question was does the change in our weather in recent years make climate change more believable. I have not asked a scientific question, this is not a scientific thread, it is a hype thread therefore "belief" is appropriate. The snowy winters back in the 70's made the next ice age believable to many; time has shown that belief was ill-founded. I'm not interested in the science here (for a change), I'm interested in the public opinion and perspective. Would the media campaign have been quite so vociferous, would AGW have quite so much public compliance if our summers had not been so hot and our winters so mild? I know, you know weather and climate are not one and the same, I know climatologists and the IPCC know the difference too but what I am less convinced of, is the general public's perception. Every weather event in this country is linked and or blamed on climate change, that will have an effect.

I didn't tik off Darkman as he wasn't replying to me or addressing me, got enough battles of my own without taking on others.

[Devonian]

Yes, I understand fully the connotations of the word believe, my question was does the change in our weather in recent years make climate change more believable. I have not asked a scientific question, this is not a scientific thread, it is a hype thread therefore "belief" is appropriate. The snowy winters back in the 70's made the next ice age believable to many; time has shown that belief was ill-founded. I'm not interested in the science here (for a change), I'm interested in the public opinion and perspective. Would the media campaign have been quite so vociferous, would AGW have quite so much public compliance if our summers had not been so hot and our winters so mild?

That's bit like asking would there have been floods if there had been less rain - no, but there wasn't.

I know, you know weather and climate are not one and the same, I know climatologists and the IPCC know the difference too but what I am less convinced of, is the general public's perception. Every weather event in this country is linked and or blamed on climate change, that will have an effect.

Humm, I think there is, in fact, a great deal of scepticism. If you post on or read as many forums/blogs as I do you'll find the majority of contributors are deeply sceptical, and that 'warmers' get seriously battered. If agw is all propaganda (and clearly I don't think it is) it's not working. I'd say that history teaches that propaganda (again, i don't think it is) rarely works for long if at all and is counter productive. So, why would it be propaganda? No, I actually think govt is telling the truth.

Edited August 7, 2007 by Devonian

[jethro]

That's bit like asking would there have been floods if there had been less rain - no, but there wasn't.

Humm, I think there is, in fact, a great deal of scepticism. If you post on or read as many forums/blogs as I do you'll find the majority of contributors are deeply sceptical, and that 'warmers' get seriously battered. If agw is all propaganda (and clearly I don't think it is) it's not working. I'd say that history teaches that propaganda (again, i don't think it is) rarely works for long if at all and is counter productive. So, why would it be propaganda? No, I actually think govt is telling the truth.

It's nothing like asking would there have been floods if there had been less rain??????

By definition those who post on blogs have an active interest in a subject, I'm talking average Joe in the street here. Where did the notion that AGW is propaganda come from?

My original question was for posters on these threads; has the recent hot summers, mild winters influenced their opinion upon climate change? If this years summer had been what we had had over the past six or seven years would people's conviction in AGW be as strong? If we have a cold, snowy winter or had had for the past few years, would people still think AGW is happening, it's real and it's coming to a town near you soon. Or, would people be more questioning? If we had nice, warm summers without drought problems and cold, snowy winters, would people in this country actually pay much attention to climate change at all?

[HighPressure]

Hi Jethro

A lot of media hype has come out of recent summers and other weather events and it seems a horse that government and many fully committed AGW supporters seem happy to ride. Extreme weather events are very easy to use to get the publics attention as they are quite often directly effected by its impacts, 0.6 of a degree in global temps is not really even news worthy let alone headline stuff. The problem with riding this horse is if we get a cold winter or a couple of average summers the headlines will read 'Global Warming where did it go?' then it becomes really difficult to disassociate yourself with the horse.

[Hiya]

Hi Jethro

A lot of media hype has come out of recent summers and other weather events and it seems a horse that government and many fully committed AGW supporters seem happy to ride. Extreme weather events are very easy to use to get the publics attention as they are quite often directly effected by its impacts, 0.6 of a degree in global temps is not really even news worthy let alone headline stuff. The problem with riding this horse is if we get a cold winter or a couple of average summers the headlines will read 'Global Warming where did it go?' then it becomes really difficult to disassociate yourself with the horse.

What an excellent quote!

It would be a turn up for the books, bit of a chilly spell, then tables get turned and poor Devonian has to prove he's telling the truth.

[Devonian]

Hi Jethro

A lot of media hype has come out of recent summers and other weather events and it seems a horse that government and many fully committed AGW supporters seem happy to ride. Extreme weather events are very easy to use to get the publics attention as they are quite often directly effected by its impacts, 0.6 of a degree in global temps is not really even news worthy let alone headline stuff.

Actually, .6C (in fact it's more) is a lot, in a global context. When did the global temperature last rise more than .6C in 100 years?

The problem with riding this horse is if we get a cold winter or a couple of average summers the headlines will read 'Global Warming where did it go?' then it becomes really difficult to disassociate yourself with the horse.

Hypothetical, just like Jethro's question and mine about the floods.

If it happens those of you who are alluding to me (and others) being perhaps, erm, economical with the actualite (spp) (hello Hiya...) will see I'm/we are not

Indeed, quote me temperature figures for this summer and you'll see

Edited August 7, 2007 by Devonian

[noggin]

I would have thought it's clear I don't think we will see a cool down?

Thanks for the reply. What I meant was....did you believe (excuse the word!) in the cooling theories in the 70s? I know that you don't think we'll have one now, but did you believe the theories that were being put about in the 70s?

[jethro]

Actually, .6C (in fact it's more) is a lot, in a global context. When did the global temperature last rise more than .6C in 100 years?

Hypothetical, just like Jethro's question and mine about the floods.

If it happens those of you who are alluding to me (and others) being perhaps, erm, economical with the actualite (spp) (hello Hiya...) will see I'm/we are not

Indeed, quote me temperature figures for this summer and you'll see

The global temps have gone up and down like a yoyo as you well know, so unless you or anyone else was around 500, 1000 or 10,000 years ago, measuring temps alone over a given period is irrelevant.

My question isn't hypothetical, it's a genuine question. I am genuinely interested to see if weather experienced in this country over recent years has made AGW more believable, has this influenced people's decision on whether or not they are a believer/sceptic.

Interestingly, hype albeit on a smaller scale than modern equivalent has been around for some time on the subject of climate change, came across this earlier, the hype began in 1895 http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialrep.../fireandice.asp

[Devonian]

The global temps have gone up and down like a yoyo as you well know, so unless you or anyone else was around 500, 1000 or 10,000 years ago, measuring temps alone over a given period is irrelevant.

I don't well know tbh. My question was also genuine. It's my impression changes of .6C in a century are unusual - show me otherwise.

[Admiral_Bobski]

I don't well know tbh. My question was also genuine. It's my impression changes of .6C in a century are unusual - show me otherwise.

Have I not pointed you to the rapid oscillations in the Vostok Ice Core graph on numerous occasions in the past? (You know - the small spikes, not the big ones...)

CB

[jethro]

I don't well know tbh. My question was also genuine. It's my impression changes of .6C in a century are unusual - show me otherwise.

Temps go up and down over varying time scales, we have records going back a hundred or so years, without complete records we cannot know how quickly temps have risen and declined in any given time period. The last century or so, for which we have records does not mean unrecorded periods of equal or greater change did not happen. You want to check it out then be my guest, I'm not interested in that, it wasn't my point. I raised a question this morning and so far you have dominated this thread with picky, pedantic points which have no bearing on the question I raised; would it be too much to ask for you to allow others to answer? I know hype has made no difference to you, you've already established that. I want answers from others too. If you want to argue temperature fluctuations, may I suggest one of the many other more scientific based threads, this is the Hype one.

Hiya Captain, how you doing? Long time, no see, good to see you back.

Edited August 7, 2007 by jethro

[Devonian]

Thanks for the reply. What I meant was....did you believe (excuse the word!) in the cooling theories in the 70s? I know that you don't think we'll have one now, but did you believe the theories that were being put about in the 70s?

I'm interested in data. Look at the CET - it was 'colder' back then. Did I 'believe' in cooling theories? Well, I was younger and, like many of the younger members here, a snow nut - I might of done. I did certainly hope for colder weather - but I think I recognised it had warmed up from the '60's ('63 perhaps being a trigger of my meteorological interest, though I don't remember it) through to the awful mild winters of the 70's (though less mild than recently). I became interested in climate change precisely because I wondered why cold winters were less frequent - sand for many years I've seen no reason not to think changing the atmosphere wont change climate the way scientists say etc etc etc.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Hiya Captain, how you doing? Long time, no see, good to see you back.

Hi Jethro, thanks for the welcome

Been on holiday - a lovely week down in Cornwall with the wife and three kiddies

A lot has happened on these boards since I was last here, so I'm still trying to go back through it all and see where I can stick my oar! I'll try and keep the science out of this thread though, as it's the Hype discussion!

CB

[jethro]

Hi Jethro, thanks for the welcome

Been on holiday - a lovely week down in Cornwall with the wife and three kiddies

A lot has happened on these boards since I was last here, so I'm still trying to go back through it all and see where I can stick my oar! I'll try and keep the science out of this thread though, as it's the Hype discussion!

CB

Glad you had a nice time, Cornwall's lovely. What do you reckon, do you think weather in this country in recent years has coloured peoples' perception on AGW?

[Devonian]

Temps go up and down over varying time scales, we have records going back a hundred or so years, without complete records we cannot know how quickly temps have risen and declined in any given time period. The last century or so, for which we have records does not mean unrecorded periods of equal or greater change did not happen. You want to check it out then be my guest, I'm not interested in that, it wasn't my point. I raised a question this morning and so far you have dominated this thread with picky, pedantic points which have no bearing on the question I raised; would it be too much to ask for you to allow others to answer? I know hype has made no difference to you, you've already established that. I want answers from others too. If you want to argue temperature fluctuations, may I suggest one of the many other more scientific based threads, this is the Hype one.

People are free to post, I'm most certainly not trying to stop anyone - the more the merrier IMO

Have I not pointed you to the rapid oscillations in the Vostok Ice Core graph on numerous occasions in the past? (You know - the small spikes, not the big ones...)

CB

Indeed, but they're for Antarctica only and the resolution decreases as you go back in time I think.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Indeed, but they're for Antarctica only and the resolution decreases as you go back in time I think.

Not quite sure I see your point - are you dismissing the ice core records now that they show something unpalatable?

Jethro:

Glad you had a nice time, Cornwall's lovely. What do you reckon, do you think weather in this country in recent years has coloured peoples' perception on AGW?

Cornwall was spectacular - went round Tintagel, Polperro, Land's End... Newquay was pretty grim, but the Blue Reef Aquarium's nice

It's an interesting question you ask, though - it is a fact that has been pointed out many times before (most notably, and contentiously, by a car company exec a few months back) that "Global Warming Fever" seems most pronounced in the UK, the same place of which it is said that we "don't have climate - we have weather".

The UK has one of the most incredible mixes of weather of any area in the world, due to it being an island with a large continent to the south and east, the arctic to the north and a vast expanse of water to the west - it's a unique place, climatologically speaking.

Now, while many of us on these boards are well aware of the proscribed difference between Weather and Climate, Joe Public is not - it's easy for someone less well acquainted with Environmental chit-chat to think "Blimey, it's sweltering - it must be global warming" or, conversely, "It's a bit parky - what's all this Global Warming guff all about?".

Since we have had a fairly consistent run of warm summers and mild winters, many will see this as a sign that what the media feeds them must be true.

CB

[eddie]

In the past temperatures have fallen and risen much faster than 1C in a century. This warming is only unprecedented in recorded history.

Abrupt climate change

Having said that, these rapid climate shifts took place at a time when the earth was coming out of the last ice age so I'm not sure if they are relevant to today's situation.

Edited August 7, 2007 by eddie

[jethro]

In the past temperatures have fallen and risen much faster than 1C in a century. This warming is only unprecedented in recorded history.

Abrupt climate change

Having said that, these rapid climate shifts took place at a time when the earth was coming out of the last ice age so I'm not sure if they are relevant to today's situation.

My point precisely Eddie, temps go up and down, we're just better at measuring and recording them now so we have a definative time period to refer to. What do you think, has the last few years of warmer than usual summers and mild winters influenced your perspective on climate change?

[HighPressure]

My point precisely Eddie, temps go up and down, we're just better at measuring and recording them now so we have a definative time period to refer to. What do you think, has the last few years of warmer than usual summers and mild winters influenced your perspective on climate change?

I got to be careful how I answer because I will get accused of being total non AGW believer which is not true.

In answer to Jethro's point earlier about peoples perception of climate change, I think 90% of Joe Public associates extreme weather events to GW as does the media. This I guess is the single biggest factor in the sale of energy savings devices and not the 0.6 deg increase in global temps or the loss of Arctic ice (don't shoot the messenger!).

As for quick global temp rises, our records only exist for a very short time slot the equivalent of taking temperature readings between 8.00pm and 8.30pm on a wet evening in May and then suggesting we can build an annual picture when of course we can only summise. Secondary data collected from ice cores are not fool proof and do not provide the full picture so it is not inconceivable that historical temperture charts could be significantly wrong. We cannot match a period in history with our current Ozone levels for which we have no historic data at all. 1000 years ago we were warmer then we are now with the doomsbook recording a vineyard in central London as the largest rent payer in the city, we also know that wine was being produced as far north as North Wales.

What I find difficult to accept is that we are told how delicate the Earths climate is and how it can be severely effected but just a very tiny imbalance a fraction of 1% yet we are unable to show historic climate and atmospheric data to the same degree of accuracy.

look what I found (8 p.m) gives 8Pm

Edited August 7, 2007 by HighPressure

[eddie]

My point precisely Eddie, temps go up and down, we're just better at measuring and recording them now so we have a definative time period to refer to. What do you think, has the last few years of warmer than usual summers and mild winters influenced your perspective on climate change?

The mild winters and warm summers have definitely influenced my perspective. If temperatures weren't going up and if we weren't breaking CET records all over the place then I would definitely be more skeptical.

[noggin]

How about everyone else? Does our recent hot summers and warm winters make the AGW case more believable?

For me, the recent (I use that word loosely) warming has just convinced me even more that it is purely natural cycles.

Up and down. Up and down. Up and down.

We're just finishing an "up".

[Devonian]

For me, the recent (I use that word loosely) warming has just convinced me even more that it is purely natural cycles.

Up and down. Up and down. Up and down.

We're just finishing an "up".

Is that a forecast? When do you expect temperatures to fall? And to what level, where, and why?