TSR Storm Alert - Super Typhoon SEPAT

[Cookie]

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

another one still a long way off though

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, and latest tracks have Sepat moving towards Taiwan again. The storm is not far off Typhoon strength now, and looks like it will be stronger than Typhoon Pabuk last week. However, it's worth noting that an aggressive strengthening was forecasted for Pabuk and this didn't happen. Contrastingly, Pabuk had poor outflow but Sepat's looks much better so it could well end up stronger than Pabuk in the long term. Certainly one for Taiwan to watch- the Phillipines will need there eye on this one too as it passes very near to the north.

Edited August 13, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

an update, but dosent apeared to have strengthend much

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Sepat has intensified overnight and is now a typhoon with sustained winds of 80kts. Further intensification is called for as it curves northwestward towards Taiwan. However, it isn't expected to be that rapid due to shear lying in ahead in it's forecast track.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ds/wgmssht.html

However, Taiwan still needs to prepare for the possible landfall of Sepat- after Pabuk and Wutip I would imagine the ground is saturated and probably wouldn't need much more rain to cause more flooding.

Here is the satellite image also taken from Cimss. You can see the eye clearly and also notice that it will be passing very close to the Phillipines, so it could cause some disruption there.

REMARKS:

140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 130.2E.

TYPHOON (TY) 09W (SEPAT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST

AS THE INITIAL POSITION HAS VERIFIED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF

PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS

28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.

[Somerset Squall]

Sepat is now a category 2 typhoon with sustained winds of 90kts. Further intensification looks likely now as shear is easing to the west of Sepat. Sepat could easily become a powerful typhoon, maybe even super typhoon before making landfall in Taiwan. A northwesterly motion is already taking place sending the storm towards Taiwan.

[Cookie]

Typhoon SEPAT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

another 72 before it could hit taiwan

[Somerset Squall]

Sepat has now bombed overnight and is a category 4 Super Typhoon, could well become a cat 5 aswell- this could end up being very dangerous for Taiwan. The shear has really eased and has allowed Sepat to intensify very rapidly indeed.

[Somerset Squall]

Sepat has strengthened to a category 5 super typhoon on the saffir-simpson scale- he's a monster and looks like it will provide real problems for Taiwan. Current remarks and satellite image from JTWC:

REMARKS:

152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 126.8E.

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 09W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-

EAST OF KAOSHIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 46

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//

NNNN

[crimsone]

Goos luck to those people out there... it looks as though some of them are going to need it

[Cookie]

thats huge I hope thier wont be much loss of life

[Cookie]

update!

Super Typhoon SEPAT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

[crimsone]

Looks like they're expecting it to die off somewhat before landfall then... that would be a good thing methinks!

[Cookie]

Super Typhoon SEPAT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, Sepat is still holding Category 5 status at the moment but hasn't strengthened anymore. It looks like it will weaken slightly before it makes landfall in Taiwan, but not enough unfortunately for it to not cause major damage and flooding. Hopefully the residents are prepared, after all- this storm has always been forecast to hit Taiwan since it's birth- and I really hope, maybe in vain, that loss of life and damages are minimal.

[biffvernon]

Sepat has already caused a lot of flooding in th e Phillipenes, and it will bring a great deal of rain to an already wet mainland China, never mind the damage it will do to Taiwan.

[Somerset Squall]

Totally agree Biffvernon.

BBC news link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/extreme_weather.shtml

Sepat is still a low end cat 4 typhoon at the moment, and the worst is still to come for Taiwan and then China.

[Cookie]

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

[biffvernon]

[Cookie]

gud image mate

[Fraggle]

Thought you might all be interested in this:-

From Taiwan's ICRT "International Community Radio Taiwan" website (http://www.icrt.com.tw):-

"Subject: Web-Alert ---- Typhoon Sepat up-dates ...... August 18-th 9-AM ...

Typhoon Sepat made landfall south of Hualien at roughly 6 o'clock this morning and the eye of the mid-level storm is currently located approximately 70-kilometers south-west of Hualien.

Sepat is slowing down however ... and is now moving in a north-westerly direction at speeds averaging 22-kilometers an hour.

It is packing wind speeds of 155-kilometers an hour with gusts of just over 190-kilometers an hour being reported -- all of which are being felt across the island ....

Schools and government offices are closed throughout Taiwan today ....

Public transport is also disrupted islandwide --- with the Taiwan High Speed Rail canceling all trains until 6 o'clock this evening and Taiwan Railways canceling some of its south-bound trains operating on both east and west coast lines.

Domestic air travel is at a total shutdown and there are no flights until further notice - while some international flights are also cancelled -- especially those slated to head to Hong Kong.

Travelers are advised to check with their airlines before heading to the airport.

Emergency centers are operating islandwide .. and have reported small-scale flooding, minor damage to buildings as well as several storm related injuries across the island.

However ... authorities in Hualien are saying that water levels in sections Mu-Gua River are rising at an alarming rate. They are monitoring the situation and have said that the river could burst its banks in the coming hour.

Needless to say, the County's Storm Watch Center is advising people to avoid the area.

Meanwhile ... sporadic power-outages are continuing in parts of Hualien and Taidong Counties - where some 3-thousand households have been without electricity since early this morning.

Several thousand residents of townships located in Hualien, Nantou and Pingdong Counties have been evacuated to temporary shelters for the duration of the storm.

Eastern parts of the island are still receiving the bulk of the rain - with Fong-bing Township in Hualien County recording the most rain so far this morning --- with upwards of 450-millimeters falling since midnight.

The weather bureau says that it expects the eye of the storm to leave Taiwan over the Taichong area in the early afternoon. "

This storm is of great interest to me personally as I'm due to fly out next week to visit my girlfriend who lives in Pingdong County, Taiwan. Naturally I'm hoping everything is going to be ok with her and her family...

Edited August 18, 2007 by Fraggle

[Cookie]

not far off now at all

Typhoon SEPAT is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

T'aichung (24.1 N, 120.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for that Fraggle- hope everything is ok for your girlfriend.

[Cookie]

A little forgotton about this one.

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

China

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Taiwan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6952715.stm

Typhoon Sepat has battered Taiwan with winds and heavy rain and is heading for provinces of south China where hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing.

It disrupted power to some 240,000 homes, uprooted trees and caused mudslides in Taiwan, forcing 1,800 people to evacuate, officials say.

In China, more than 540,000 people have left low-lying areas and flights have been cancelled, state media reported.

Nearly 300,000 were evacuated in Fujian where the storm is due on Saturday.

Sustained winds of 126km/h (78mph) were recorded off Taiwan early on Saturday, local meteorologists report.

from bbc news

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for that Cookie. It's just about keeping Typhoon status at the moment as it is making landfall in China. Damage and death toll reports will be coming out in the coming days, hopefully will be as minimal as possible.

Latest advisory:

TYPHOON 09W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 027

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

181800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 118.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 118.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

190600Z --- 26.0N 117.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

191800Z --- 26.8N 116.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 118.6E.

TYPHOON (TY) 09W (SEPAT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM WEST OF TAIPEI,

TAIWAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//

Edited August 18, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

dose it look like it will hit a densly populated area?