2007 Atlantic season; general discussion

[crimsone]

Excuse me for creating this thread, but what I had to ask didn't seem to fit into the subjects of the other threads so well.

Apparently, we are now up to the average on named storms for this time of year... I was wondering if anybody knew where we stood with ACE?

As for the rest of the month/season... things seem to be underway now... but I guess that there are two ways of looking at it. Either the season has finally "got into gear" and we can expect to see storms form more readily from now on, or it could be said that Dean is the only current storm of note - a compact storm which formed from a sizable tropical wave - while Erin just happened to form just in time under favourable conditions. There is still a reasonable amount of shear over in the Eastern Atlantic, and even over the warm GoM, 91L left it untill the last minute!

I look forward to more activity this season, but with enough caution not to be dissapointed (just in case! lol) - a lesson I learned from last year. lol

[kold weather]

Ah yes the ACE, I can't honestly answer where we are right compared to average however given al lthe systems previous to Dean were weak I can only assume that we are below average in that regard given we've only had as of yesterday about 1.3 in terms of the ACE. Erin will raise it just a touch but Dean will raise it quite a lot, indeed we will probably be above average once the system dies away.

Lest us forget that last year was close to average yet it wasn't till Florence (in early September) that we saw us get above 15, we ended up with 78.5.

As for the rest of the season, there are some areas of shear still present but then again you always will, even in the hyper active season of 2005 the eastern Atlantic was unfavorable, so you'll always have areas that aren't great for development. The ITCZ is pepping up right now and there ar eplenty of waves over Africa right now, one of which could well become Felix early next week IMO following a track quite close to Dean. T obe fair from Erin it went from a minimal tropical wave to a tropical storm in the space of about 72hrs and condtions have only become favorable over the last 24hrs (before then we had a upper low sitting right next to it.)

I should think this season will pan out a little different to the season of 06. That season did have some decent actvity between late August-mid September with a couple of decent looking hurricanes though all went out to sea around 50W. Clearly this August is panning out very different qith a powerful Azores high present and stretched across the basin any storm that comes off Africa weill be a long westerly tracker like Dean...another2-3 systems like Dean should assure an above average ACE season.

[crimsone]

Thanks KW...

I guess I'm just trying to keep both views open, and of course you're right about Erin... it was an area that was being watched for quite some time though on the graphical tropical outlook.

While the fish spinners were interesting (yet equally unexciting lol) last year, one thing that did perk the season up for me was the storm that broght high seas and a very tropical feeling to the south western UK... I forget its name. I'm cautiously going for the NHC forcast being correct this year though (though their very high ACE prediction remains to be seen), and hoping to see some caribbean activity. I'd rather not see loss of life or property, but it's a lot more interesting and exciting to watch them in between the islands over there. Just to see a good number of Atlantic storms would be great though.

[Somerset Squall]

That was Gordon Crimsone- yes that was really weird, I remember it being 24C at 9pm when it moved in and the wind was hot and damp. Gordon was definately the most interesting storm of the season, especially the way it persisted over the Azores as a hurricane, narrowly avoiding being absorbed by a frontal system! Certainly was a fighter that one.

According to Wiki- the ACE stands at 2.7 currently, I'm not sure where this is in realtion to average or indeed if the source is entirely reliable.

Edited August 16, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

We are currently in last place, in relation to ACE..

[kold weather]

Hehehe, well its hardly surprising we are in last place given we only at August 17th!

Saying that with Dean looks like we are going to easily overtake the east Pacific total ACE by the time it finished, its total so far is a very low 13.9 tohugh its still got time to raise that yet.

It should be noted that while Dean has an ACe of just 4.79 right now, given its at 90kts right now and forecasted to get anywhere from 125-160kts that figure will rise pretty rapidly. Similar systems to Dean have recorded ACE values anywhere from 30-50.

If Dean gets that it would have beaten at least 4 hurricane seasons on its own!

If it can get higher then about 40 then it will hae been the strongest system in terms of ACE since Ivan 04...a long way away yet and only one tenth the way there to that sort of value but if it can get upto cat-4/5 it could do it given its expected track.

[Somerset Squall]

Can I ask: Why is the shear so strong across the central and eastern Atlantic at the moment? Ingrid, and now Karen and Melissa are having to do battle with this shear, what's causing it?

[Cat 5]

Well we are now into October and no serious damage caused.

In 2006 there were no further storms from this point - so it is looking good for the insurers!

[kold weather]

Hard to say, it seems like ther ehas been a constant upper level lot sat right in the central Atlantic over the last month or so and any system that has reached 35-45W has been sheared to pieces by this feature. Its a little early and stronger then normal, esp given the La nina signal present but then again the weather does what it likes at times!

As for little damage, tell that to central America which got hit quite hard by Dean, Felix and Lorenzo!

[Somerset Squall]

Hard to say, it seems like ther ehas been a constant upper level lot sat right in the central Atlantic over the last month or so and any system that has reached 35-45W has been sheared to pieces by this feature. Its a little early and stronger then normal, esp given the La nina signal present but then again the weather does what it likes at times!

As for little damage, tell that to central America which got hit quite hard by Dean, Felix and Lorenzo!

Thanks KW.

And I quite agree with the last sentence.

[Cat 5]

As for little damage, tell that to central America which got hit quite hard by Dean, Felix and Lorenzo!

Somerset Squall / Kold weather - I apologise for my flippant remark regarding this years season causing 'little damage'. We all know that whenever a hurricane develops it is naturally going to cause widespread damage and with it take a substantial number of lives.

I was talking purley from an Insurance background (and comparing it to the last 10 years figures).

Over the last 10 years the average insured loss for Hurrican damage is $21.5 Billion. So far we are at only $3.8Bn which equates to 17% of the average.

Over the past 10 years there an average of 1,800 fatalaties directly by hurricanes. 2007 has been responsible for 208 (12%). Again well below average.

No offence intended.

Cat 5

[Somerset Squall]

No offence intended.

Cat 5

No offence caused Cat5. Thanks for explaining. Interesting stuff.