Arctic storms 2007-2008

[Chris Knight]

Looks like the Arctic with low ice and warm surrounding seas will be stormy this winter. We have one stonker that has travelled across the Barents Sea from Greenland at the mo., likely to blow itself out over the Laptev Sea an the next 3 days. Any input here will be appreciated.

[Chris Knight]

Looks like another storm will be brewing up over Svalbard and the Barents Sea by the middle of next week:

[Gray-Wolf]

Good thread!

With the altered dynamics up there we should expect subtle variations in both the weather up there but also the weather 'sent' from up there.

Maybe not for this 'winter thread' but the prospect of what open water,evaporation and warming may bring a whole new intensity of weather exported south over the summer months (instead of it pasing over low R.H. ice pack!).

Edited October 5, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[mettalfabrik]

alaskan artic ocean navtex met forecasts you may be interested so i will post from time to time

FZAK61 PAFG 071154

OFFN15

NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

354 AM ADT SUN OCT 7 2007

...PLEASE REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWF) AVAILABLE

THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR DETAILED

COASTLINE FORECASTS...

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST

THROUGH SUN THEN TRANSITION EAST AS A 1000 MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA MON AFTERNOON THEN INTO

KOTZEBUE SOUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC OCEAN TUE NIGHT.

CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT.

FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

.MON...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.

.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT

SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. SNOW.

CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT...STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS 7 FT.

FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. WINDS STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS 6 FT.

FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.

.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like another storm will be brewing up over Svalbard and the Barents Sea by the middle of next week:

I hope this works because if it does watch how much snow has fallen since end of September.

here

BFTP

[mettalfabrik]

latest weather from the canadian high artic region http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/te...tin=fpcn15.cwnt

FPCN15 CWNT 082047 AAA

Updated forecasts for the high Arctic area of Nunavut issued by

Environment Canada at 4.45 PM EDT Monday 8 October 2007 for tonight

Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The next scheduled forecast will be issued at 5.00 AM Tuesday.

Resolute.

Winter storm watch in effect.

Tonight..Cloudy periods. 40 percent chance of flurries this evening.

Wind southwest 30 km/h becoming light this evening. Wind becoming

east 20 overnight. Low minus 11.

Tuesday..Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning in the morning. Amount 2

cm. Blowing snow giving near zero visibility at times in the

afternoon. Wind east 20 km/h becoming southeast 40 gusting to 60 in

the afternoon. High minus 3.

Tuesday night..Periods of snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Blowing snow giving

near zero visibility at times in the evening. Wind southeast 40 km/h

gusting to 60 diminishing to 20 late in the evening. Temperature

steady near minus 3.

Remainder unchanged.

END/MAH/BN

FPCN15 CWNT 081930

Forecasts for the high Arctic area of Nunavut issued by Environment

Canada at 4.00 PM EDT Monday 8 October 2007 for tonight Tuesday and

Tuesday night.

The next scheduled forecast will be issued at 5.00 AM Tuesday.

Resolute.

Winter storm watch in effect.

Tonight..Cloudy periods. Wind southwest 30 km/h becoming light this

evening. Wind becoming east 20 overnight. Low minus 11.

Tuesday..Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning in the morning. Amount 2

cm. Blowing snow giving near zero visibility at times in the

afternoon. Wind east 20 km/h becoming southeast 40 gusting to 60 in

the afternoon. High minus 3.

Tuesday night..Periods of snow. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Blowing snow giving

near zero visibility at times in the evening. Wind southeast 40 km/h

gusting to 60 diminishing to 20 late in the evening. Temperature

steady near minus 3.

Grise Fiord.

Tonight..Snow ending this evening then clearing. Wind becoming

southwest 20 km/h late this evening. Low minus 14.

Tuesday..Becoming cloudy. Periods of light snow beginning late in the

morning. Amount 2 cm. High minus 4.

Tuesday night..Light snow ending in the evening then cloudy. 30

percent chance of flurries overnight. Low minus 7.

END/MAH/BN

also the latest thirty day ice bulliten for the west and central artic regions

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/FECN14CWI..._0003357432.txt

FECN14 CWIS 031800

THIRTY DAY ICE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC FOR OCTOBER

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 03 OCTOBER 2007.

THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 16 OCTOBER 2007.

Mean air temperatures were near normal values over most locations

except below normal over the Coronation Gulf. Freeze-up over the Western

Arctic will be 2 to 3 weeks later than normal over most locations.

Forecast ice conditions for October 03rd to October 15th.

An area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean will maintain a

light to moderate easterly flow over the Beaufort Sea and along the

Alaskan Coast during the period. In addition, a deep low pressure system

moving from Alaska to the Northwest Territories will bring moderate to

strong northeasterly winds over the Central Arctic. Temperatures will be

near to slightly above normal values during the first half of October.

The main pack of multi-year ice will remain well offshore but will move

slowly southward during the period over the Beaufort Sea. At mid-October,

the southern edge of the multi-year ice pack will be located about 140

miles north of Tutoyaktuk Peninsula and Barter Island and 240 miles north

of the Alaskan Coast. New with some grey ice will form within the multi-

year ice pack during the first week of October and thicken to a mixture

of grey and greywhite ice at mid-October. Bands of very open drift multi-

year ice will persist along southeastern Banks Island, in western Queen

Maud Gulf and western Victoria Strait during the first half of October.

New with some grey ice will develop over northern Peel Sound, western

Victoria Strait, western Larsen Sound and western Queen Maud Gulf at the

end of the first week of October. The ice over these areas will thicken

to grey with some greywhite ice by mid-October. Mostly open water

conditions will persist over the southern Beaufort Sea, along the Alaskan

Coast and the rest of the Northwest Passage during the period.

Forecast ice conditions for October 16th to October 31st.

Periods of moderate to strong east to southeasterly winds will

develop over the Western Arctic during the second half of October.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal over most locations during the

last two weeks of October. The main pack of multi-year ice will remain

well offshore over the Beaufort Sea during the period with greywhite ice

forming between ice floes. New with some grey ice will form in shallow

bays and inlets along the Alaskan Coast, in Mackenzie Bay and south of

the multi-year ice pack during the third week of October. The ice will

thicken to grey with some greywhite ice over these areas at the end of

October. From Queen Maud Gulf to Peel Sound, new ice will form over

southern Peel Sound, eastern Larsen Sound and eastern Queen Maud Gulf

during the third week of October, while the ice will thicken to grey with

some greywhite ice over the rest of the shipping route. At the end of

October, a mixture of grey and greywhite ice will be present from Queen

Maud Gulf to Peel Sound. At that time, new with some grey ice will

develop in Dease Strait. Bands of very open drift multi-year ice will be

embedded in the ice pack over western Victoria Strait and along

southeastern Banks Island. Mostly open water conditions will persist over

the rest of the Beaufort Sea, off the Alaskan Coast, in Amundsen Gulf and

Coronation Gulf during the period.

[summer blizzard]

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?oe=UTF-8&amp...l&q=Nunavut

Nunaavut is the area to the north west of Hudsons Bay, the warning is in association with a weak area of low pressure moving eastward, the thermal gradiant looks pretty weak, thus minima are the story as opposed to snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

[mettalfabrik]

thanks SB

north west of hudson bay yes i suppose it is, although ALERT is about as near to the pole as you can get for weather observations http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU

==================================================

ICAO : CYLT

Station Name : Alert Airport

Country : Canada

Location : 82-31N 062-16W

Elevation : 31m

Time : 07/10/2007 20:00:00

Temperature : -19.0°C / -2.2°F

Dew Point : -21.0°C / -5.8°F

RH : 84%

Wind : Calm

Visibility : 19000m

Pressure : 1028.4 mb

Sky Condition : Few clouds at 1000ft, Overcast at 20000ft

Weather :

Remarks :

METAR : CYLT 071900Z 00000KT 12SM FEW010 OVC200 M19/M21 A3037 RMK SC2CI2 LAST OBS/NEXT 090600Z SLP288

==================================================

[Chris Knight]

I hope this works because if it does watch how much snow has fallen since end of September.

here

BFTP

Woo Hoo! It works!, How do we keep it going?

Looks like the cold air from last week's storm is blocking the advancement and intensity of the storm over the Barents Sea from progressing, but this should increase the cold air in longitudes from 0 to 90 deg

But it may dump a lot more snow!

Its a big learning experience, and I just don't know how the Arctic Winter will pan out yet - ice recovery or not.

Edited October 9, 2007 by Chris Knight

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Woo Hoo! It works!, How do we keep it going?

It just keeps updating itself so one to keep

BFTP

[Chris Knight]

It just keeps updating itself so one to keep

BFTP

Brilliant! Look at the sea ice recovery - I wish there was a way to keep the GFS 500hPa animations going in a permanent link for the NH, is there a way?

The most active systems seem to wind themselves up over Greenland, and proceed over the Kara sea, filling on the way. There are also big N Pacific systems centred over the Bering Sea that run out of steam as they hit Alaska.

[Chris Knight]

The last few weeks have shown more of the same, with the Greenland and Norwegian Seas getting most of the action, with an intense weekend in prospect:

BFTPs loop shows nice snow buildup over all of Russia, in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, and in North America from coast to coast above 50 deg N. The sea ice is rapidly closing in the Chukchi and Kara Seas, so we are now waiting for The Barents and Bering seas to show any ice formation. I don't think we will have much longer to wait.

Edited November 13, 2007 by Chris Knight

[VillagePlank]

I hope this works because if it does watch how much snow has fallen since end of September.

here

BFTP

That's really quite an impressive amount of snow!

[Cookie]

great link BFTP