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New Peer-Reviewed Study Finds ‘Warming is naturally caused and shows no human influence’


PersianPaladin

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Posted
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip

    Very interesting. Similar reading to a fascinating book i've just finished called 'Not by fire but by ice'. Well worth a read for an alternative view of climate change.....if a little dramatic.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
    Very interesting PP. Would love to get hold of the full article. Edit - I should be able to get it when it appears online as I have an academic access to most journals.

    The article isnt listed on the Royal Society webpage: -

    http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/116844649/issue

    :)

    I've just checked and have access to this paper.

    Problem is I don't know how to may it available to view... :doh:

    It is a PDF. Any ideas let me know.

    Chris

    You need to have a program called Adobe Reader on your computer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
    I keep saying this but nobody listens :doh:

    Me too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Oh dear, oh dear ,oh dear.

    Next.

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    The article isnt listed on the Royal Society webpage: -

    http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/116844649/issue

    Hi PP.

    It was published online on 5th December 2007. It looks like it will either be in the second hard copy Number in December or January: in either case that's Volume 37 Number 16.

    You can purchase it online already, but I can't yet access it free through my University.

    http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin...=1&SRETRY=0

    That link may not work in which case google the article's title and about 3 down you get straight to the online link.

    Research Article

    A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions

    David H. Douglass 1 *, John R. Christy 2, Benjamin D. Pearson 1, S. Fred Singer 3 4

    1Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA

    2Department of Atmospheric Science and Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899, USA

    3Science and Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA 22202, USA

    4University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA

    email: David H. Douglass (douglass@pas.rochester.edu)

    *Correspondence to David H. Douglass, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA.

    Keywords

    climate trend • troposphere • observations

    Abstract

    We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 Climate of the 20th Century model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Received: 31 May 2007; Accepted: 11 October 2007

    Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

    10.1002/joc.1651 About DOI

    Oh dear, oh dear ,oh dear.

    Next.

    Good to see you are maintaining an academic, unbiased and objective approach to current research. :doh: You really don't do the cause of AGW many favours ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
    It's only one study. It's not gospel or anything. There are thousands more who completely disagree with it, and nobody's even read it yet.

    So don't get too excited.

    Isn't that the point with the whole discussion regarding global warming. Nothing is gospel, except the fact that the earth is currently, or has been recently, warming. How this is arrived at is fully open for debate, which I think IS the point of this, and other, threads.

    Just a thought.

    As for the research article, should make for an interesting read!

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
    It's only one study. It's not gospel or anything. There are thousands more who completely disagree with it, and nobody's even read it yet.

    So don't get too excited.

    Not sure that there are thousands of others who get published in such high standard journals.

    Still you are right, its not gospel and only one study ; it could indeed be just another bit of pathological science on behalf of the anti-AGW cynics.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Would anyone care to name the countries who 'messed up ' the IPCC reports? The fact that the study is done in one of the biggest dissenters and the Journal is from another rings alarm bells in my tiny head.

    In so far as 'doing/not doing' favours for the AGW cause....tough. I've said before I gave up giving a damn in 85' as my head was too bloodied from the brick wall I'd spent 15yrs ramming it into. Back then we could have made a start to ameliorating the worst AGW could throw at us, today? your knacker ed, completely and utterly kiboshed and it will be in the immediate future (and not down the line in someone else's old age) that the utter scale of what WE had accomplished will come abundantly clear.

    The life that you live happens now. In the near future either the quality of this existence will be severely curtailed or your existence itself will be negated. If you were too young 20yrs ago blame your parents, if not, you should (in the words of one of my songs from back then) have 'Listened to me'.

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    Hmmm ... the problem with that GW (just realised how appropriate that is!) is that it's not a way to win over hearts and minds. Your evangelical tone has one thinking more of the extremist sectarians in parts of the mid-west than people who are able to win an argument with normal, sane, middle of the road people - and that is surely where the debate is to be had. Allied to this is a persistent sense that some have tried to cut-off debate, something which exacerbates the notion that the argument about anthropogenic global warming contains flaws. The 'I'm right and that's the end of it' approach is usually in my experience a sign that someone is wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
    Hmmm ... the problem with that GW (just realised how appropriate that is!) is that it's not a way to win over hearts and minds. Your evangelical tone has one thinking more of the extremist sectarians in parts of the mid-west than people who are able to win an argument with normal, sane, middle of the road people - and that is surely where the debate is to be had. Allied to this is a persistent sense that some have tried to cut-off debate, something which exacerbates the notion that the argument about anthropogenic global warming contains flaws. The 'I'm right and that's the end of it' approach is usually in my experience a sign that someone is wrong!

    And ohh how I hope I am! As wrong as a wrong thing gobbling down wrong pills !!! What do I , or any of us, stand to gain if I'm right???? Wrong ,wrong ,wrong ,wrong, oh how I wish to be barkingly off in my viewpoint, oh how I will celebrate the dissenters scorn at my wrongness.

    Oh for a long life on a settled, energy rich planet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
  • Location: Birmingham U.K.
    I've just checked and have access to this paper.

    Problem is I don't know how to may it available to view... :)

    It is a PDF. Any ideas let me know.

    Chris

    Hi, Chris.

    You can download the Adobe Acrobat reader for free - that will open up the PDF file for you. 'Google' Adobe and it will give you the link to the Adobe home page.

    Hope this helps.

    Regards,

    Mike.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    It states in the report that several runs of the GCM model were compared against actual records at various parts of the troposphere in the tropics; but unless I'm reading it incorrectly..it doesn't state the beginning date of the model runs and the location of the data derived from the tropics. It also states that for one simulation the latitudinal interpretation for tropics was 20N to 20S whereas the other was 30N to 30S.

    I'm confused.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
    These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data.

    The obvious question to ask, then, is why? One conclusion might be that if Douglass's findings contradict everyone else's it's because they've missed something. The other, is that Douglass is wrong. Given the publishing details, I'm not betting on him having discovered something that others have missed. Check out RC on Tropospheric temperature trends: http://www.realclimate.org/

    :)P

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
    The obvious question to ask, then, is why? One conclusion might be that if Douglass's findings contradict everyone else's it's because they've missed something. The other, is that Douglass is wrong. Given the publishing details, I'm not betting on him having discovered something that others have missed. Check out RC on Tropospheric temperature trends: http://www.realclimate.org/

    :D P

    There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.

    I wish I could understand some of the terminology used in statistical analysis, but I guess I'll just stick with real-world meterology.

    One gripe is; why should you input uncertainty into measured real-world observations? Uncertainty is only a factor in model simulations; not present reality.

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    The obvious question to ask, then, is why? One conclusion might be that if Douglass's findings contradict everyone else's it's because they've missed something. The other, is that Douglass is wrong.

    And another is that in their headlong rush to 'prove' the AGW line others have misused and abused data.

    This is an important paper.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

    Hi, La Nina.

    So, you are saying that quite a lot of scientists have deliberately chosen to deceive each other and us, by producing material which does not follow the basic principles of science, and that the universities, institutions and journals have all agreed to conspire to allow them to do this? Of the two suggestions, once again, I think I know which I find more likely.

    :)P

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    One gripe is; why should you input uncertainty into measured real-world observations? Uncertainty is only a factor in model simulations; not present reality.

    To account for uncertainty. The same reason that in your real world meterology you understand that the ensembles are a very important part of the big picture.

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