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M.O 2007 second warmest year


Ukwoody

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Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

    Apparently last year was the 2nd warmest on record, with 9 of the 10 wamest being since 1989.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7169690.stm

    woody

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hi Ukwoody!

    The deniers will just refer you back to 55 million years ago as proof that this is a nonsense..........

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    Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon

    Or that as with any good statistic it depends on how you take the data.

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    Or that as with any good statistic it depends on how you take the data.

    I prefer an analogy of how good food is prepared and eaten. There is world between a master chef and a gentleman diner, and a greasy spoon and a slob. They could all start with the same ingredients but the outcomes and experiences are not the same.

    I saw this headline on the news just now. It's interesting and does rather bare out the very different autumnal experience of the SE of the UK c.f. the rest of the country - given that the CET was only around 10th warmest.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    SF I'm surprised at you!

    link, I'm sure there is a later one but its the only one I can find in a hurry.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20071213.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    SF I'm surprised at you!

    link, I'm sure there is a later one but its the only one I can find in a hurry.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20071213.html

    John, I'll need you to explain that one to me: that link is to global temps - though I enjoyed it by the way: I like the graphical treatment there, excellent use of colour to add a dimension to the plot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

    whilst I do have a slight leaning towards magpies comment, I only brought it up as mere interest more then anything else. I don't think anyone is denying it has got warmer (are they?) rather "what is causing it". Personally I think it is all caused by expulsions of intestinal gases from a lot of backsides after all the recent trend towards Baltis :)

    Oh, Grey wolf, isnt Deniers a measurement of stockings? :D

    woody

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    SF I'm surprised at you!

    link, I'm sure there is a later one but its the only one I can find in a hurry.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20071213.html

    I like that graph, quite a clear way of presenting the data.

    I think it's likely the all time record globally and for us in the UK will be broken in the next 3 years. The sun looks to increase in irradiance any time now and an El Nino year could result in some very impressive warmth. I also wonder what effects the rapid melting of the polar ice will have. Interesting times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    There is some confusion here, which might be an attempt by the media or other authorities to sensationalise things (I'm not sure of this).

    Essentially, the Met Office's press release shows the following:

    1. 2007 was the 7th warmest year on record, averaged globally.

    2. 2007 was the 2nd warmest year on record, averaged over the Northern Hemisphere.

    3. 2007 was the 9th warmest year on record, averaged over the Southern Hemisphere.

    4. 2007 was the 2nd warmest year on record, averaged over the UK.

    I say this because some sources seem to phrase it as if 2007 was the second warmest year globally, when in fact this statistic refers to the Northern Hemisphere and/or UK.

    Still, there is no doubt that the pattern of near-record global warmth continues, and that the Northern Hemisphere was particularly warm, probably in large part due to the exceptional warmth of the NH early in the year, especially the freakishly warm January. I agree that we'll almost certainly see the record slashed if we get a significant El Nino anytime soon.

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    While the Met Office have it as the 7th warmest year globally, the GISS of NASA have it as the 2nd warmest, behind 2005. NOAA also seem to have 2005 as the warmest year:

    The 2005 global temperature was statistically indistinguishable from the standing record set in 1998. One data set, in use at NCDC since the late 1990s, produced a global annual temperature for 2005 that was slightly below 1998 (below left). An improved data set, which incorporates innovative algorithms that better account for factors such as changes in spatial coverage and evolving observing methods, results in 2005 being slightly warmer than 1998.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resear...rspectives.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
    An improved data set, which incorporates innovative algorithms that better account for factors such as changes in spatial coverage and evolving observing methods, results in 2005 being slightly warmer than 1998.

    In other words "we've played around with the figures"....

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    Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
    I like that graph, quite a clear way of presenting the data.

    I think it's likely the all time record globally and for us in the UK will be broken in the next 3 years. The sun looks to increase in irradiance any time now and an El Nino year could result in some very impressive warmth. I also wonder what effects the rapid melting of the polar ice will have. Interesting times.

    Indeed. Although I mourn the decline of winter as much as anyone else, there's huge interest - if potentially morbid, like watching an inevitable train crash - in watching how events unfold, if, indeed, they do.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
    Ah, a conspiracy...

    All they did was try to get the most accurate result they could. I fail to see what's wrong with that.

    No conspiracy... It's the truth..

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    Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
    Sounds like you were suggesting they were fiddled in order to raise the figure.

    I never said that.. I just said that they have played around with the figures.. Purely an observation in a real world..

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    It doesn't work like that, each year won't be a little bit warmer than the last. There are other factors in play that cause short term ups and downs. It's the long term trend that is climate. If you want a good idea of the longer term trend you need to take long term moving averages, such as compare the average temp of the last 10 years with the average temp of the 10 years before that. 10 years is even a bit too short, 30 years seems to be the standard for long term climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent
    It doesn't work like that, each year won't be a little bit warmer than the last. There are other factors in play that cause short term ups and downs. It's the long term trend that is climate. If you want a good idea of the longer term trend you need to take long term moving averages, such as compare the average temp of the last 10 years with the average temp of the 10 years before that. 10 years is even a bit too short, 30 years seems to be the standard for long term climate.

    I entirely agree that what the trend shows is warming and I think it shows evidence of other significant factors governing global temps. If CO2 was as closely linked to temp rises as suggested then I would not expect other factors to be overcoming progressively warmer years to the tune of just one warmest year in 4. I know its a simplistic view but I am convinced it shows us that the other factors are significant too and points to CO2 not being the overwhelming cause but merely part of the puzzle??

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    I have checked the CET figures and will declare that the CET for 2007 was rather underwhelming joint 10th warmest. But that wouldn't make a very sensational headline, would it?

    2006 10.82

    1999 10.63

    1990 10.63

    1949 10.62

    2002 10.60

    1997 10.53

    1995 10.52

    2003 10.50

    1989 10.50

    2007 10.48

    2004 10.48

    1959 10.48

    Also, as a bit of fun, I will declare that 2007 was actually the joint 2nd coldest CET for the last 6 years.

    ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    With our 'arctic enhanced' monsoonal summer I'd not be surprised at a more 'normal' temp but no! it is still up there with the warmest!

    Where would it have been without the input of the 'arctic drift'?

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    I entirely agree that what the trend shows is warming and I think it shows evidence of other significant factors governing global temps. If CO2 was as closely linked to temp rises as suggested then I would not expect other factors to be overcoming progressively warmer years to the tune of just one warmest year in 4. I know its a simplistic view but I am convinced it shows us that the other factors are significant too and points to CO2 not being the overwhelming cause but merely part of the puzzle??

    Why wouldn't you expect that? CO2 is only increasing at 2-3ppm a year. Maybe if it was doubling every year then you probably would expect each year to be warmer than the last. But it's only increasing at about 1% a year or less. Other normal background factors can easily from year to year have an effect as the CO2 rise is really quite small in a single year. Of course other factors are significant but they aren't driving anything! They're there every year. CO2 is the one thing that is steadily increasing in influence year on year. Other factors are fairly randomly up and down from one year to the other. They are just background noise that are always present.

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